Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: watching the watched watch the watchers (1/3)

[uploaded 24 times; last 09/09/2024]

As some readers understand, over the past few years I've kept a fairly
detailed sky-watching diary of the comings and goings around the outer
N fringes of Melbourne, SE Australia.  I'm located some distance N of
the Melbourne Airport but it seems this is a useful spot for seeing
things coming and going from the UFO-infamous Bass Straight and points
further south.

I've finally managed to cull through a few years of entries to create
a small database of "UFO reports" and run them through the same
programs that have been looking at sightings from the NUFORC and similar
organisations.

The exercise is firstly to replicate prev work and see whether it
supports or contradicts some of the tentative conclusions I've already
indicated in posts over the past 2-3 years. And what with a large chunk
of "civilian" observations supposedly full of Starlink and Planet
Venus sightings it's also nice to try to check public data against a
set of observations that try to cull out the blindingly obvious
mundane stuff.

But another interesting aspect that had me floored the first time it
popped up -- if you have a nice set of "somewhat"  consistent UFO data,
with "filtering turned up to 11", you might be able to spot more than one
kind of signal in there. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm mostly
interested in signals involving "unusual" origins for the objects seen.
But if the overall signal to noise ratio is good enough we might be able 
to split off several different types of object and support more complicated 
ideas of what the H*ll is going on around here. :)

This post will look at the initial month-by-month counts I have from
2020 through early 2023. We find here that all the "old patterns" seem
to show up. By doing the usual grid-square by grid-square statistical
analysis we can trace which areas of the world (or anywhere else :)
seem to be able to predict things I've seen over my own back yard. The
theory goes that if some phenomenon often goes from A to B where it is
observed then the pattern of observations at B will say something
about A. If the weather at A changes it should leave a fingerprint on
the pattern of observations at B. It is statistically unlikely that
observations show ups and downs in very close statistical parallel
with e.g. the temperature of some remote location a few days earlier
just by chance. By systematic "gridding" you should be able to see
patterns of which locations explain the observations more or which
less and end up with a "density map" of where Wally is operating from.

First, let's look at the data. At least the version I have today.
(The numbers can change from time to time depending on what brain-wave
either the A/I software or its human has in the small hours of that morning).

As prev noted, all observations to date have been from the same fixed
location approx 75km N of Melbourne.AU. While observing days have
become very sporadic of late, and initially started out slow while the
observer was still not too convinced there was anything to see, at
least almost daily 1hr+ sessions were relatively consistent through 2022. 
The diary entries are still online but only
available via keyword search to prevent any remaining personal info
falling into the hands of hackers (pejorative sense).

The month by month count of objects seen is as follows.  

01Dec2022 3 01Feb2023 3 01Jan2023 5 01Mar2022 4 01May2022 3
01Nov2022 3 01Oct2022 3 02Dec2022 2 02Jan2023 9 02Mar2022 4
02May2022 2 02Oct2022 1 02Sep2022 6 03Dec2022 10 03Feb2022 4
03Mar2022 7 04Aug2022 6 04Dec2022 4 04Feb2022 2 04May2022 9
05Feb2022 2 05Jan2023 6 05Sep2022 7 06Apr2022 3 06Dec2022 15
06Feb2022 2 06Jan2023 20 06Jul2022 6 06Sep2022 2 07Aug2022 2
07Feb2022 4 07Jan2023 7 08Dec2022 4 08Feb2022 2 08Feb2023 7
09Apr2022 10 09Jan2022 2 09Nov2022 8 09Oct2022 6 10Feb2023 14
10May2022 6 10Oct2022 3 11Aug2022 7 11Feb2022 5 11Feb2023 7
11Jan2022 7 11Jan2023 4 11Mar2022 5 12Feb2022 8 12Mar2022 1
13Dec2022 7 13Feb2023 8 13Jan2021 3 13Jun2022 3 13May2022 2
13Sep2021 2 13Sep2022 2 14Apr2022 2 14Feb2022 4 14Feb2023 6
14Jan2023 6 15Dec2022 8 15Jan2023 9 15Jun2022 3 15May2022 8
15Oct2022 3 16Jan2023 5 16Mar2022 1 16May2022 3 16Sep2022 5
17Apr2022 2 17Dec2022 6 17Jun2022 6 17Mar2022 6 17May2022 2
17Nov2022 10 17Oct2022 10 18Feb2022 3 18Jun2022 6 18Oct2022 15
19Dec2021 1 19Dec2022 6 19Feb2022 8 19Feb2023 4 19Jan2022 3
19Mar2022 12 19Oct2022 4 20Apr2022 2 20Feb2022 3 20Feb2023 10
20Jan2022 4 20Mar2022 3 20Nov2022 3 20Oct2022 8 21Feb2022 3
21Feb2023 6 21Jul2022 8 21Jun2022 9 21May2022 8 22Apr2022 7
22Dec2021 3 22Feb2022 4 22Jan2023 2 22Jul2022 6 22May2022 2
22Sep2022 12 23Apr2022 10 23Feb2022 4 23Jan2023 14 23Mar2022 6
23May2022 10 24Apr2022 7 24Jan2022 3 24Jan2023 10 24Mar2022 4
25Apr2022 8 25Dec2022 3 25Feb2022 5 25Jan2022 3 25Mar2022 3
25Nov2022 6 26Dec2022 5 26Jan2023 4 26Mar2022 3 26May2022 7
27Jun2022 4 27Mar2022 9 28Apr2022 9 28Feb2022 3 28May2022 7
29Apr2022 2 29Dec2021 2 29May2022 6 29Nov2022 13 30Apr2022 3
30Dec2021 1 30Dec2022 8 30Jan2022 3 30Jan2023 4 30Jul2022 2
30Nov2022 3 30Sep2022 10 31Aug2022 10 31Jan2022 5 31Jan2023 6

(All other days during at least 2022 were ostensibly 0. Years before
and after may contain genuine missing vals so should likely be
replaced with an averaged or median if you're doing any rigorous
analysis yourself).

The objects are predominantly just LITS that are obviously acting
differently from aircraft, satellites or balloons.  The LITS including
many stationary one-shot flashes or series of flashes as well as
lights that slowly brighten then fade out and either are stationary or
move contrary to satellites or planes.  There are also a very small
number of totally odd things like dumbells, boomerangs, transparent
disks, jellyfish, black pencils, wraiths, and anything else that
crossed over the property close enough to see during the hours 6pm to
6am local time.

The analysis proceeds by comparing each monthly location-based
(i.e. latitude and longitude) time series in a database against the
sightings, above.  Each square of a 10x10 deg grid is covered by
dozens of local temperature, air pressure, cloud density and height,
cosmic ray, earthquake, and dozens of other measures made by
satellites, ships, and robots in the past few years.  The "winner" for
each grid square is the time series (i.e.  handling serial
correlations) with the highest R2 that passed the 2 stat tests (T-test
and Spearman rank test) at the 90% conf level or better.

The relevant R2 density map is here:
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/UFO-DIARY/MAP1/map.gif>

The similarity with published UFO data -- e.g. the NUFORC for N Am,
GEIPAN for France, special-interest group data for NZ, AUS and the UK
and several other smaller datasets -- should be obvious.  The highest
R2's seen (shown in yellow on the map) are roughly "the usual
suspects".  A large swathe of Antarctica lights up. The biggest
concentration is in the interior of W Ant. A smaller region is in E
Ant.  A blob appears in the Coral Sea, N of Australia.  There is a
blob in E Africa. Another in the middle of the S Atlantic.  Another
off the NW coast of S Am. Another in the E Pacific off central
America.  And another one between the W coast of the US and Hawaii.

But all the blue regions (an R2 roughly around 0.1) seem to implicate
some input from local weather, cosmic rays, earthquake, or other data
across most of the N Hem *EXCEPT* for the US and Canada that remain
black. While Alaska is dim blue, for some reason data in the lower 48
US states does not seem to link to the sightings at all.

But as we shall see in later posts, this doesn't at all mean the US or
Canada have no connection at all. We will find that very very specific
locations in the US and some other countries have a very close
relationship with the sightings data. But the locations are
seemingly so very very specific that generalised weather and other
data based on 10x10 deg grids just doesn't pick it up.

As we shall see it seems there are at least 2 sets of data in the UFO
sightings listed above: one set of objects that seem to relate to
UFO's as generally reported by various groups over the past 80 years,
and seemingly another set of vaguely similar-looking objects that may
be daily trailing said UFO's around the world to find out what the
heck they are up to. And, given recent testimony, maybe also ready to
swoop in and pick up the pieces of any crashed tech or anything else
if that kind of thing happens.

Which may explain my own "black boomerang" sighting 28/7/21 that
coincided with 2 unusual meteorites and a black helicopter converging
all at the same point on the horizon, all within mins of each other
(check my diary keyword boomerang for the gory details -- also posted
to one of the UFO groups some time back) plus observed reactions of
light "patrol" aircraft in the neighbourhood that seem to spot what
appear to be meteorites falling to earth but maybe are, or are hoping
are, something totally else.

--
Welcome to the very first official UFO hearing in American history
It's a historic day for everybody who has always wondered if we are alone in
the universe. Although there have already been multiple hearings on UFOs or
UAPs, this is the first hearing in which credible witnesses will testify
under oath in front of Congress. All representatives already offered their
initial remarks and gave all three witnesses the chance to make their oath
before the hearing starts. These witnesses are former Commander David Fravor,
former fighter jet operator Ryan Graves, and former Intelligence Official
David Grusch.
-- Marca.com, Wed Jul 26 10:48:24 EDT 2023

[No Good Deed Goes Unpunished:]
Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who
handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing
climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow
the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in
your favor.
-- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying
   Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an
   organization representing govt workers with high security clearances.

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