Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and lake monsters

[uploaded 74 times; last 31/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Experts in the field suggest there are links between various
  paranormal phenomena. In particular, there's a suggested link
  between the appearance of unusual critters and UFO activity.
- We look at the associations between sightings of selected lake
  monsters and weather and other phenomena.
- Surprise. UFO activity turns out to predict monster sightings more
  accurately than weather phenomena whether remote, local or global.
- Amazingly, the position of key planets also seems to predict the
  appearance/sighting of lake monsters sometimes years in advance.
- The links between monster sightings and weather phenomena seem to
  pick out the usual list of suspects associated with regions that
  already have an affinity for predicting UFO activity -- particularly
  the Antarctic and Bering Sea.
- Similar patterns are seen across the sightings for all 3 selected
  monsters here. (So selected because sighting data was readily
  available on a dedicated website or via wikipedia).
- We suggest a possible link that summarizes all the patterns found.
  A link that does not involve inter-dimensional portals.  (Which of
  course we can not rule out).


UFO's are a rabbit hole topic -- you might say "gateway rabbit hole" --
in that they seem connected with every odd event or fringe area of
study going.

The folklore suggests various explanations for why that "should" be.
E.g. different phenomena really belong to different realms or
realities and "thin spots" possibly associated with mountainous
regions allow phenomena to leak from one to another and suddenly
disappear back again.

The past few months of study across the various topics if not 50 years
dabbling in quantum physics has reinforced to me to never to rule out
any explanation.

One of the thrusts of my research at the moment is to find ways to
overcome what many see as limitations of "science" as taught and
practiced whereby a body of hard-won knowledge is protected from
continual disruption by the temporary inclusion of new ideas that have
not been "fully debugged". The real world is a non-monotone system --
whereby later knowledge can totally invalid was was thought to be
"known" previously -- and the system of scientific and "rational"
thought we've inherited mostly from the classical Greeks is based on a
monotone system (like geometry) where once a theorem is proven it
remains true forever after and can not be overthrown by the inclusion
of any new facts.

So "the system" requires new ideas to pass through a Valley of Death
whereby any objection raised by people with sufficient training and
experience is normally enough to kill it off totally.  This
theoretically works fine in a monotone world. But it leaves something
to be desired in the real world.

"Outsider scientists" often complain "the system" is out to get them.
And it is. It's the way it works and it works that way because up
until now it's been successful. There's even an idea for that --
Darwinian evolution.

But in fringe areas in particular little progress (as measured by "the
system" :) has been made over the past say 100y because unless an idea
can "obviously" be fully integrated into the body of knowledge that
exists it will never be accepted. And the deadly embrace continues --
and unless it can be accepted there will be little progress in fringe fields.

I like to think this situation is changing. Sure it is. :) Maybe very
slowly. Maybe the change has been boosted a bit by collaborative work
done over that interweb thingy -- connecting like minds (no matter how
fringe) together to do their thang. And maybe a bit more by the sudden
realization of Hard Science recently that all those centuries of work
by 1000s of clever people has won us knowledge only about 5% of even
the physical universe. Hard Science has proven to its own satisfaction
there are Yuge Chunks of reality it had not suspected until now really
existed.

My work over the past few years has been trying to address the
shortcomings of "the system" as I perceive them. Instead of a
pass/fail grading of new ideas every conceivable idea should be given
a score -- some kind of likelihood that it is true or relevant to
humanity or (in my case) individual introverted researchers.

But how to keep track of ideas/theories in a system where anything goes
"to some extent"? The only way I can see to make sense of the
spaghetti bowl of "new knowledge" would be AI.

And to that end I've been working on adapting some s/w I've used in
science and industry (mostly to unscramble the global economy for
various company Boards) to examine a bunch of observations and
present it as a more or less simple narrative that appears to make
sense of what is known.

As Lem would have it ("Golem 2000"), the introduction is over. On with
the next introduction!



We've seen in previous posts how data science methods approach various
puzzles related to UFO's -- supposedly to be the Next Big Thing
Anytime Now.  By relating different kinds of data we can see
patterns. Seeing patterns is otherwise known as "understanding"
because it allows us to compress a bunch of data into smaller and
easier-to-follow "rules" (possible not all that strict in the
classical sense of "rule").

And so we approach a new area in the same way.

We might like to appreciate how, where and why the phenomena of lake
or sea monsters associate with other fringe areas like UFO's.  Many
researchers understand there is some kind of link. But what is it?
Portals? Something else?

So the method is to gather together basic data on lake monsters and
cross-check them against everything we already think we know about the
world, gloss over all the 1000s of inconsistencies that would normally
get associations thrown out of Science Court, and rank the results
from most likely to least likely. We'll look at the results always
assuming anything can be wrong.

After a few days of searching a part of the AI s/w has managed to
dredge up good basic data on 3 lake/sea monsters. We'll shove all 3
into the AI mill that we've used before to run a series of robust
regressions and then shove all the results back into the s/w to spot
patterns between everything that seemed to pop out of the first part
of the analysis.  We'll hopefully end up with a bunch of ideas that
are common between many types of lake/sea monster and it might even
suggest a way to tie them all together in a way that doesn't need the
intervention of wormholes/portals scattered all over the place.

The best-documented monster the search produced was for Nessie.  Not
entirely sure whether a sea monster or a lake monster, many people
over the years have seen "humps" and wakes moving around on L. Ness
Scottyland and luckily for us they wrote a lot of it down.

While online reports for each case probably exist if we cared to look,
I'm only really interested in the date and time. Grouped only by years
in this instance the number of Nessie sightings looks like:

Nessie sightings from 1986:

Year	#sightings
1986	5
1987	9
1988	9
1989	2
1990	3
1991	2
1992	8
1993	3
1994	5
1995	2
1996	16
1997	17
1998	10
1999	4
2000	11
2001	4
2002	5
2003	2
2004	3
2005	4
2006	2
2007	2
2008	2
2009	1
2010	1
2011	5
2012	2
2013	1
2014	7
2015	8
2016	7
2017	14
2018	15
2019	18
2020	13
2021	24	(est pro rata from first 2 months of data)
Source: <http://www.lochnesssightings.com/>.

We can see the data nicely waxes and wanes. This is good because it
allows us to check whether some other known data series "looks the
same".  If we have a dataset that's totally uniform we don't expect to
learn much -- it will just match up with any other dataset that is
also approximately uniform; we only learn the data is "the same" as
any other data series that has no other features and we knew that
going in.

So we let our little AI s/w loose on the above data and carefully
decide whether each of (at this date) around 28,000 data series look
like the Nessie sightings data and, if so, by how much (the R2
statistic is what the s/w normally uses but it can also change its
mind as the data dictates).

The "top 10" data series it finds that suggest the most likely causal links are:

Suspect         Lag     Filter  Transf  R2
ufo-AL          5       1               0.88639422
ufo-Formation   5       1               0.87207829
ant-80          10      1               0.82517308
saturn-elong    5       1       y       0.82401360
stormseg40      1       1       y       0.81634692
sdaravgNH       1       1               0.77799797
nsea            0       1               0.72099237
neptune-latecl  5       1.5     y       0.71608674
uranus-lonecl   5       1       y       0.70402751
lat-50          1       1               0.68467246

Wow! Top of the list are the UFO sightings from Alabama, lagged by 5
years.  I.e. a peak in sightings in AL in year Y predict a peak in
sightings of Nessie in year Y+5 almost 90% of the time (says the R2).

Moreover, the type (due to the NUFORC classification) "Formation" has
a similar 5-y lag and "explains" around 87% of Nessie sightings.

And these are (according to the s/w) immediately the best predictors
of Nessie activity. Not only is a link between lake monsters and UFO's
suspected, but the data shows there is a statistically strong link, at
least for the case of Nessie.

The other codes include a list of interesting suspects: "ant-80" is
the sea surface temperature in the Antarctic at longitude 80-70W.
This corresponds with the Antarctic Peninsula.

Next down on the list is Saturn. The "elongation" of Saturn (the
visual angle between the sun and Saturn we see here from planet dirt)
predicts 82% of Nessie sightings. From past work we know that
elongation might indicate something is coming directly from Saturn
that affects Nessie sightings or it might indicate (if small
elongations == more Nessie sightings) something coming from somewhere
farther out might be using Saturn as a "gravity boost" to travel in a
direct path between "home" (wherever) in a direct line grazing the sun
to Earth.

Next on the list is "stormseg40". This is the number of "significant
ocean storm days" along longitude 40-50W. Roughly between S Africa and
Antarctica.  (Usually the NOAA storm dataset I use here doesn't keep
close track of ocean storms (if any) in the Arctic Ocean so we can
cross that region off here.

Next we have "sdaravgNH" which measures how constant the surface
temperature of the northern hemisphere is for each year (the "sd"
means the s/w has taken the std deviation of the 12m for each
year). It makes sense that even a lake monster might be influenced by
water temperatures. Observers will also be pushed around by the
weather. So this link makes "obvious" sense.  It's the first one that does. :)

Then we come to "nsea" -- the sea surface temperature of the North
Sea.  This is allegedly home for Nessie at least some of the time.  L
Ness is connected to the sea. More or less.

Then we have suggestions the positions of Neptune and Uranus also
explain 70% of Nessie sightings. Again, lagged by 5 years. Somehow
these outer planets move toward some key location -- latecl means how
high above/below the plane of the ecliptic the planet is; lonecl is
how far the planet has moved around its orbit from its "ascending node"
-- the position where it passes through the ecliptic moving "N" to
make the latecl +ve for the first time in its orbit.  How the
positions of planets we can hardly see from Earth make any difference
to whether Nessie or Nessie observers get together doesn't make much
sense as a stand-alone factoid.

And, finally we have "lat-50" -- the sea surface temperature along the
band 40-50S aka the "roaring 40s" in the Southern Ocean. Somehow the
SST of the S Ocean last year affects how many people see Nessie this
year almost 70% of the time. Maybe its another weather link. Maybe
that and also including indirect effects.



So there we have it. A list of sometimes "obvious" and sometimes
"weird" things affect how many times Nessie is reported or presumably
seen.  Some factors may relate to Scotty weather and therefore viewing
conditions.  But it's a stretch that weather in the Antarctic
influences L Ness weather much, and certainly a big stretch that
happens after a single year.  Mostly weather in the S Hem stays in the
S Hem. As we've noted before, hurricanes can't even get *close* to the
equator, let alone cross to the other hemisphere. Even sea circulation
takes years to circulate within a hemisphere, let alone cross the
equator and make it all the way between the S Ocean and Scottyland.

And then we have the "planet thing". How can planets influence Nessie
or visitors to L Ness?

If we stand back and remember some of the prev postings on these
topics we suddenly appreciate many of the "weather things" as well as
the selected planet positions as well as the UFO sightings are "all
the same thing".  They are all linked to UFO activity.

In a second way it seems UFO's and lake monsters are linked. Portals?
Or something more obvious?

But the next shock comes when we try this same procedure on other lake
monsters. I've used the "famous" Caddy and Ogopogo both from
Canada. Caddy seems to be a sea monster which experts have collected
~300 sightings for over the years, while the Ogopogo monster has a
nice web site at <https://ogopogoquest.com/sightings.php> that lists
36 sightings.

The shock part -- they give pretty much the same list of suspects as
Nessie. All 3 are highly influenced by weather in the Antarctic, some
weather more locally, and the position of outer planets.  Given just
the planetary data it's possible to predict annual lake monster
sightings within +-10%. Pretty strange!

The s/w has ways to aggregate all the data from all 3 studies but we
wont go into that now. Just noting there are more similarities than
differences and the picture across all 3 seems to be mostly identical.

So UFO's are linked with not only 1 lake/sea monster but 3 lake/sea
monsters. The first 3 we thought of. Given the way these
"coincidences" work we'd suspect if we looked at the data on other
lake/sea monster sightings they would all show the same kinds of
patterns, with probably some slight variations due to local conditions.

And now for the possible explanation. Where are these monsters coming
from?  Are they residents of the lakes or sea coasts where they've
been spotted?  Are they "visitors". I note there was "recently" a
sighting of a "giant worm" swimming up the Calendonian Canal,
apparently headed toward L Ness.  (I also note there was a recent plea
from the USGS to ID a "giant ice worm" they imaged travelling along a
river in Alaska).

Given the data suggests there's a significant lag between UFO activity
and monster sightings, it kinda suggests there might be some kind of
conservation effort underway. While it seems unlikely these animals(?)
come from any planet except earth they seem to be otherwise unusual or
unrepresented in the fossil record. The part of the fossil record we
have good access to. But the connection with the Antarctic beckons.
There are at least 400 lakes across the continent, most of them 3,4 km
under the ice. The pressure down there is crushing -- 400 atm -- but
some forms of life are confirmed in the open literature. A long way
from a monster, to be sure, but the links are there in the data.  It
doesn't take much effort (we assume) for a giant black triangle to fly
small lake monsters around the planet every few years to re-stock
random lakes. The poles -- even lakes miles under the ice -- are under
threat from AGW after all. And no inter-dimensional portals required.


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