Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: maps maps maps an mo maps

[uploaded 44 times; last 01/11/2024]

We've been seeing a lot of "maps maps maps" stuff lately.

  The West is best to spot UFOs
  Science Daily, 01 Mar 2024 09:06Z
  Researchers identified environmental factors that explain why
  reports of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) are more common in
  certain regions of the country. Most sightings occur in the American ...

  Scientists reveal new map showing UFO hotspots and areas that have
  the most sightings
  unilad, 01 Mar 2024 06:06Z
  The map has been shared by the University of Utah, where geographers
  used data from the National UFO Research Center to look at
  approximately 98,000 total sighting reports from 2001 to 2020. For each ..

  UFO sightings are influenced by the environment
  earth, 28 Feb 2024 15:39Z
  A new study by geographers at the University of Utah shares a
  surprising link between our environment, human activity, and UFO sightings.


Who knew UFO sightings were "influenced by the environment"? Hands up! :)

We've looked at this before. When it comes to looking for patterns in
e.g. UFO sightings we have to be careful. Are the patterns the result
of the behavior of the witnesses or are they the result of the
behavior of the objects? Or is it always a combination?

Data-science has many tomes on how to tease these things apart.
Scientists like psychologists and sociologists have been doing this
kind of thing informally for maybe the past century. But it's
increasingly being formalised with the details hidden inside clever
programs you can probably get for your phone now.

The mental model is straightforward. You can either develop some model
of the relevant human behavior (e.g. the "work week") and subtract
that off the data we're interested in at the moment (e.g. "UFO
sightings") and get behaviour data for UFO's; or we can develop a
model of UFO behaviour and subtract that from the data to get data for
the behaviour of the witnesses.

Or the 3rd way -- find a neutral model that may show the same patterns
already in the data which may hint that those patterns are not so
heavily related to what the witnesses were thinking or doing.

This is the Pentagon's stated preference when it comes to UFO's.  Can
you find one or more non-humans that have seen the things and back up
what the human witnesses see with their raw eyeballs?
Robots. Instruments. Some kind of gizmo that doesn't need laxatives or
drugs to calm them down when they get a surprise.

With UFO data as we've mentioned before there are already publicly
available data you can use as "baselines" for what neutral observers
might make of those bright orbs and black triangles we all see zipping
across the sky from time to time, usually trailed by some kind of
blacked-out helicopter or small unmarked civilian aircraft (in very
budget-minded countries like Australia :).

The "MADAR" network was set up a few years ago to record anomalous
magnetic disturbances that were thought to be an indication of unusual
aircraft in the area. The little boxes have apparently been tinkered
up to report over the net when the magnetic disturbance is so great it
can't be much else than some weird thing in the vicinity.

At the point I last uploaded the public data there were around 1200
MADAR reports in the NUFORC database.

So we can check "does the environment affect UFO witnesses and/or
sightings, or does the environment affect UFO's themselves"?

And -- surprise -- MADAR sightings report the environment affects
what UFO's are in the vicinity. If there are more UFO's reported in
the US West as the headlines blare it may be because they UFO's are
more interested in visiting regions in the west for some reason.  It
doesn't have much to do with the politics, economics, or living
standards of the region, especially.

The data is thus:

States like:             popden(p/km2)   MADAR/stn   Model estimate
Montana                   2.71231           13        15.65
North.Dakota              4.13368           18      13.6266
Oregon                     15.812            6      8.76879*
Colorado                  20.2394      7.11111       8.0856
Oklahoma                  21.5543      6.58333      7.92009
Arizona                   23.1261         10.5      7.73902
Minnesota                 24.3797           11      7.60594*
Missouri                  33.6984      8.28571       6.8385
Alabama                   35.7896            5      6.70454
Washington                39.3099      8.41111      6.50102
Kentucky                   42.281            4      6.34723*
New.Hampshire             54.9475            3      5.82359*
Tennessee                 60.4694          9.5      5.64321*
Georgia                   66.3695      3.85714      5.47319
Indiana                   70.1825      9.66667      5.37365*
Virginia                   75.669            3      5.24237*
Illinois                  85.7344            6      5.03161
California                92.3292      5.85714      4.91057
Ohio                      100.033         5.75      4.78295
Pennsylvania              107.329          4.8      4.67358
Florida                    119.03      6.83333      4.51735*
New.York                  140.099         4.75      4.28181
Massachusetts             248.552      3.66667      3.54664
New.Jersey                396.583            2      3.04188*

MODEL:
y = 21.7221 * x^-0.328579
beta in -0.328579 +- 0.113975  (90% CI)
alpha in 3.07833 +- 0.457067 
T-test: P(beta<0) = 0.999970
r2 = 0.52694384
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = -0.628696
	cv 0.485 2-sided at 1% sig; reject H0:not_connected


We've divided the total MADAR reports by the number of stations in
each state and lined it up against the state pop den.  The outliers
have been removed and the remainder binned on pop den so states with
similar popden are averaged together.  The result is put through a
careful regression that makes various checks on the data and tries to
be robust in its estimates.

The program finds there is a 99% chance by the Rank test, and 99%+
chance by the T-test that there is a link between pop den and MADAR
sightings(per station). Lower pop den states report significantly
more MADAR sightings. The best model found -- explaining more than 50%
of the state-to-state variation in MADAR reports -- is a "power law".
Approx MADAR sightings ~ 1/cbrt(popden). The cube root (cbrt) of x is
x**(1/3).

Surprise! The environment seems to attract or repel UFO's themselves.
They seem to "like" low human density and "dislike" crowds.  If you
break it down by UFO types (shapes and colors) individual types might vary.

Meanwhile, the AI's have been crunching away and produced their "maps
of the solar system" for objects spotted in different states.  Various
scientists may be interested in how many sightings are seen in each
state, but the next level up is to trace the objects seen in each
state to some part of the solar system where they may be hanging
out. And that's what my little nav model is for. Assuming objects are
like fleas hopping from rock to rock out there, and sometimes hopping
on the rock we call home, can we come up with a list of rocks (plus
earth) that show a pattern of hopping that exactly matches up with the
reported UFO sightings we have until now? It turns out -- yes we
can. Which also means -- given the models developed by data science
methods are robust and predictive -- we should be able to predict what
is going to happen at least in the next 1-5-10 years as far as UFO
sightings are concerned. Unless the fleas change their modus operandii. :)

I'll eventually put the new maps up on or about
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/MAPS>.  Read the pages carefully. They are
usually set up to confuse the scrapers and other golliwogs that
aimlessly wander the Internet looking for blackmail juice.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

But what is true and I'm actually being serious here, is there are, there's
footage and records of objects in the skies that we don't know exactly what
they are, We can't explain how they moved, their trajectory. They did not
have an easily explainable pattern.
-- Pres Barack Obama, "The Late Show", 2021

"I think some of the phenomena we're going to be seeing continues to be
unexplained and might, in fact, be some type of phenomenon that is the
result of something that we don't yet understand."
--Ex-CIA Director John Brennan

"[F]or the few cases in all domains--space, air, and sea--that do
demonstrate potentially anomalous characteristics, AARO exists to help the
DOD, IC, and interagency resolve those anomalous cases. In doing so, AARO is
approaching these cases with the highest level of objectivity and analytic
rigor. This includes physically testing and employing modeling and
simulation to validate our analyses and underlying theories, and
peer-reviewing those results within the U.S. government, industry partners,
and appropriately cleared academic institutions before reaching any
conclusions."
-- Dr Sean Kirkpatrick, Senate Hearings on UFOs, 19 Apr 2023.

UFO Sightings Reported by Mediterranean Ufological Center
Il Mattino, 27 Feb 2024 17:34Z
Sicily also distinguished itself, with the report of a UFO in Agrigento and
a USO (submarine UFO) spotted by two people in ...

Chinese scientists identify Milky Way origin for ultra-high energy cosmic rays
South China Morning Post, 27 Feb 2024 15:02Z

Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatures
NYT, 27 Feb 2024 18:59Z

Clouds Vanish During a Solar Eclipse, And We Finally Know Why
ScienceAlert, 26 Feb 2024 20:15Z
When the Moon passes in front of the Sun in a solar eclipse, the
jaw-dropping spectacle seems to change our world momentarily ...

Hollywood Meets the Unknown: The Formation of the Hollywood Disclosure Alliance
BNN Breaking, 25 Feb 2024
In an era where the line between science fiction and science reality
increasingly blurs, a groundbreaking initiative emerges from the heart of
the entertainment industry. Enter the Hollywood Disclosure Alliance (HDA), a
coalition of renowned Hollywood storytellers and leading UFO/UAP researchers
and advocates. Their mission? To dismantle the shroud of secrecy maintained
by the U.S. government regarding extraterrestrial life and pave the way for
an unprecedented acknowledgment from the President of the United States.
Recently granted nonprofit status in California and recognized as a 501(c)3
corporation by the IRS, the HDA marks a significant stride toward achieving
its ambitious goals.
[See also: <https://www.hollywooddisclosurealliance.org/>].

What REALLY happened during Roswell crash? America's most famous UFO case is
thrust back into the spotlight ...
Daily Mail Online, 17 Feb 2024 15:00Z
Three former NASA researchers have now independently challenged the Pentagon'
s 'Project Mogul' balloon theory of Roswell's UFO crash.

Carbon dioxide gas spotted in atmosphere of Jupiter's moon Callisto
New Scientist, 17 Feb 2024 02:18Z

[Yet Another Ocean!]
First Look at Asteroid Hints It's a Fragment of a Lost Ocean World
ScienceAlert, 12 Feb 2024 01:23Z

Apology to UFO councillor and people of Bonnybridge from former MOD officer
who once dismissed sighting claims
The Scotsman, 22 Dec 2023 13:02Z
A former civil servant who once investigated UFO's for the Ministry of
Defence has apologised to Falkirk councillor Billy ...

UK missile base tracks `UFO' leaving RAF experts baffled and sparking
top-secret probe
The Sun, 21 Dec 2023 03:24Z
BRITAIN'S ballistic missile early warning base in Yorkshire tracked a UFO
sparking a top-secret probe, it has been revealed.