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Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and polar ice (2/n)

[uploaded 72 times; last 19/10/2024]

Further to the correlations between daily UFO sightings in N Am and
Arctic seaice.

I've upped the resolution from humongous to very large.  In the latest
calculations that correlate daily seaice as roughly determined from
sat radar against NUFORC daily sightings less "lights in the sky"
(LITS) the central Arctic is divided into 16 regions and a predictive
model estimating N Am UFO sightings against seaice area created.  Each
model estimates an optimal lag (days) between when a change in seaice
signals a future change in UFO sightings. Typically, the lag is around
60 days but some areas are up to 1/2 or 2x this rough average.

The minutia is pretty boring for nonquants but a plot of the results
is here: &lt;kym.massbus.org/UFO/seaiceR2.gif&gt;.

The numbers show the R2 ("explanation power") in percent for each of
the regions.

We see the largest R2 is hovering around Noaya Zemlya in the Kara
Sea. Changes in seaice around there predict 75% of daily UFO sightings
across N Am 37 days later.

The corr is -ve. I.e. less sea ice cover means more UFO sightings
across N Am about 60 days later.  There's a bit of a threshold effect
in that lower and lower seaice slowly leads to more and more UFO
sightings until a certain value when the "dam bursts" and sightings
are at a seasonal maximum.  Less ice after that doesn't lead to
significantly more sightings.

The much-processed data from the model looks like:

Bin label (year/day)   seaice         #UFOS        model-est #UFOs
                                     (non-LITS)
      2020197            0.339848      12.0333      12.1817
      2020324           0.0375516      11.8889       12.485
      2020122            0.175877           14      12.3462*(model 1sd under)
      2020144           -0.338643       11.561      12.8624*(1sd over)
      2020294            -1.12214      15.1111      13.6484*(1sd under)
      2020233           -0.867378      13.2069      13.3928
      2020304           -0.628837        13.84      13.1535
      2019205           -0.977782        13.25      13.5036
      2018247            -2.03636        12.75      14.5656*(+1)
      2020334           -0.475332        13.95      12.9995
      2020140           -0.153754      12.6286      12.6769
      2020087            0.530346      9.79592      11.9906**(+2)
      2015310             2.49676           10      10.0178
      2019354            0.852691      10.3125      11.6672*
      2019019             1.19483      10.9697      11.3239
      2020167             0.68724      13.5128      11.8332*
      2019350              1.0126      11.6154      11.5068
      2020062            -1.70811         14.8      14.2363
      2020222            -1.42042      15.2857      13.9477*
      2016294            -2.65488      15.3333      15.1861   &lt;- model gets
                                                                 max sightings
                                                                 here
      2013322             2.36563           11      10.1493
      2019297             1.32286      11.1818      11.1955
      2016120            0.440933           12      12.0803
      2018364             1.42812         10.8      11.0899
      2020244            -2.26147      13.8889      14.7914
      2018351             1.76733          9.2      10.7496*
      2017062             2.08184           11      10.4341
      2019182            -4.92884           16      17.4675*    
      2020264            -4.09186           17      16.6278
      2020274            -2.37232           16      14.9027*
      2020274            -2.37232           16      14.9027*

It's hard to avoid tentatively concluding the areas with larger values
of R2 in the graphic are associated with a travel corridor between N
Russia and N Am. Just by eye you can judge a list among the 16 regions
that suggest a "most likely" route at least from Russia to Canada &
the US.


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