Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and missing persons (3/n)

[uploaded 69 times; last 31/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We use a state-by-state list of number of missing people in 2019 to
  determine which types of UFO activity appear to closely correlate.
- We also check some other interesting state demographics along with
  the UFO activity.
- It seems some UFO types are related to increased number of missing
  people; other types are robustly related to lower levels of missing
  persons.
- At the same type HH firearms do not seem to reduce missing persons;
  in some cases they may act as an "attractant". Perhaps those states
  with a history of missing people are the ones that arm up.
- The number of Army bases in a state seems to have no effect on
  missing persons related to some types of UFO activity. But other
  types of UFO activity in the presence of Army bases seems to be
  reduced.
- The presence of AFB have a similar spread as Army bases. Except some
  types of UFO activity in the presence of AFB is seen to increase for
  reasons unknown but maybe suspected. The surprise part is this is
  2019 missing persons data, not 1960.


The data-scanning part of my s/w has managed to find a list of missing
people by US state. After downloading all the public FBI reports some
time back it seemed noone broke them down that way.

But someone must.

And this allows us to re-run some correlation studies to see if we can
find robust relationship between UFO activity over the US and volumes
of missing people -- even if it's only for the one year (2019).

So this won't be like most of the other studies where I want to ask
what data the s/w has on hand strongly correlates with this list of
missing person data; we want to just set up a model that involves some
of the things we've found in the past relate robustly to missing
persons and see what part UFO's play in that across the 50 states in
the dataset.

The summary information -- using the total UFO count between 2006 and
2020 per mn capita from NUFORC for each state -- looks like:

MODEL:
y = 1.28141*x + 22.951
beta in 1.28141 +- 0.50456   90% CI
alpha in 22.951 +- 11.7025
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999952
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.507347
Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.27868947

Data:
State		         #UFOs /mn    #missing /mn   model-predicted missing /mn
TX                        7.82697      45.36        32.9806
New.York                  8.84026      30.6126      34.279
Louisiana                 8.99218      56.9505      34.4737*
Illinois                  10.4977      24.6501      36.4029
Maryland                  10.8218      30.4675      36.8182
Mississippi               11.0282      38.4316      37.0826
Alabama                   11.3193      41.9841      37.4557
Kansas                    12.0207      27.8194      38.3544
Iowa                      12.1643      27.5297      38.5384
Michigan                  12.2952      56.0338      38.7062
California                12.5943        54.49      39.0895
Georgia                   13.8034      24.4741      40.6388
Delaware                  14.8002      61.3151      41.9161
North.Carolina            15.2348      32.5606       42.473
Ohio                      15.3271      30.8264      42.5913
Massachusetts              15.601      18.5446      42.9423*(1sd over)
Nebraska                  15.8212      32.1698      43.2244
Virginia                   16.104      28.5101      43.5868
New.Jersey                16.2983      33.3779      43.8358
Kentucky                  16.4968       56.044      44.0901
Indiana                   16.6171      26.2853      44.2443
Pennsylvania              16.7936       31.322      44.4705
Oklahoma                   16.874      64.4281      44.5735
Tennessee                 17.2719      54.6945      45.0834
Florida                   17.4138      61.7623      45.2652
Arkansas                  17.4602      67.1546      45.3247*(1sd under)
South.Dakota               17.473      26.7919      45.3411
North.Dakota              18.4958      40.9551      46.6517
Missouri                  19.8893      51.9423      48.4373
West.Virginia             20.0637      65.0714      48.6608
Colorado                  20.5257      53.5134      49.2528
South.Carolina            21.4454      37.5806      50.4313
Minnesota                  22.406      32.6071      51.6622
Wisconsin                 22.8717      25.8172       52.259*
Nevada                    23.5225      66.4166      53.0929
Connecticut               25.0635      54.8611      55.0676
Utah                      27.0368      35.7153      57.5962*
Washington                27.6137      89.6748      58.3354*
New.Hampshire             30.0614      26.3038      61.4719*
Rhode.Island              30.2945      18.9341      61.7706**
Oregon                    31.2734      107.223       63.025**
Arizona                   31.6341      134.006      63.4872**(2sd under obs)
Hawaii                    33.5288      74.7414      65.9151
Wyoming                   34.1235      76.7778      66.6771
Vermont                   35.1414      86.2562      67.9815
New.Mexico                39.3265      68.5815      73.3443
Maine                     41.3743      81.2441      75.9684
Idaho                     44.7149      61.0298       80.249
Montana                   50.3413      68.7352      87.4588


Which (considering this is posting #3 on the topic) renews the apparently
robust link between UFO activity/sightings and missing persons.  Previously
links were over time -- a number of years of FBI reports -- but this
one is for one year across the various states.

We see for each UFO sighted in a state about 1 person is reported
missing (1.3+-.5).

2 stats tests were done on the data. A T-test to make sure the
relevant \beta was too +ve to be just due to chance. The s/w
calculates there's less than 1 chance in 10 it could be so large just
by luck.

And a 2nd non-parametric rank test was done and also found the order
of states by UFO sightings and by missing person numbers was far too
similar to be just luck.

Together, we have something like 1 chance in 1000 or less the link is
just due to luck.

There is 99.9% something going on.

So far this is pretty much what we found before. We recall with the
FBI data we could also check each of the missing persons categories
and find the link was robust for some types of missing person
(e.g. juveniles) but not for others (dementia cases). And we also
checked the same pattern broadly was seen in UK and AUS missing data.

But we can now push on and check which UFO types are "most strongly
linked" and maybe add a couple other things to the mix like the number
of army and AF bases in each state, and maybe the% of
households with firearms. How do all these things together affect
missing person numbers in each state?

Most of what you expect is seen. There is one surprise. Or maybe not.

I've run each UFO type NUFORC keeps track of. The types are assigned
by the curators of the data rather than witnesses. We can thank them
for that. :)

A table of the relevant regression models for JUST the coefficient of
the UFO type in each case and ordered from lowest \beta to highest
looks like:

UFO type	coeff(beta)	stderr		T-val		P-val
Egg           -183.96387        63.99720      -2.87456       0.00971
Cross          -87.74357       101.40186      -0.86531       0.39966 not sig
Fireball       -12.38200         9.32850      -1.32733       0.19801 not sig
Circle           5.33948         3.12380       1.70929       0.10458
Light            6.72509         1.02260       6.57645       0.00000
Triangle        10.81420         6.37277       1.69694       0.10264
Sphere          18.78046         4.36408       4.30342       0.00026
Formation       19.13450         7.57560       2.52581       0.02009
Other           21.68958         4.89959       4.42682       0.00026
Flash           23.95456        14.70277       1.62925       0.12063 not sig
Unknown         26.33085         4.76948       5.52070       0.00001
Changing        26.53809        14.07010       1.88613       0.07197
Diamond         35.24658        31.53746       1.11761       0.27480 not sig
Oval            47.31150         7.03542       6.72476       0.00000
Disk            55.17567        11.43018       4.82719       0.00006
Cigar           56.78453        20.44833       2.77698       0.01163
Cylinder        72.09837        23.46344       3.07280       0.00538
Chevron         77.22041        22.82169       3.38364       0.00236
Rectangle      104.76048        24.30762       4.30978       0.00021
Cone           317.52548        57.52159       5.52011       0.00003
Teardrop       351.48764        37.86761       9.28201       0.00000

I've marked the lines where the p-val shows that coeff may be not
significantly different from 0. I'll assume anything that 10% or more
might be just down to luck of the draw can be ignored.

But of the rest, almost all UFO types seem to relate to missing persons.

As we've seen before, *some* types seem to relate to missing persons
being LOWER than they would have been otherwise. Other UFO types seem
to relate to HIGHER numbers of missing persons.

While this model can't tell whether the action of one type of UFO is
*coordinated* with other types, that is one possibility.  Another idea
is that different UFO types may have "different views" -- some might
try to "discourage" whatever activity other types engage in that
increase missing person numbers in some states.

We can also immediately see that some types are WAY more linked to
missing persons. E.g. Teardrop UFO's appear to be the most active
related to increased missing person numbers. For each Teardrop
sighting per mn capita there are 351 missing persons in a given state.

OTOH for each Egg UFO sighting -- the folklore suggests these may be
associated with people that like to land in orchards and sample fruit
but also maybe implicated in cutting off the face of the odd cow every
now and then -- there are about 183 LESS missing persons per mn capita in
that state.

And, finally, we can look at one of these models and check what other
attributes of the state affect the missing person numbers.

I'll randomly select Cigar shaped UFOs:

 REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
 *****************************************
     VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------
       gunown         1.56400         1.02311       1.52868       0.14201
   ufo2020Cig        56.78453        20.44833       2.77698       0.01163
          pop        16.77945         7.10022       2.36323       0.02836
         army        -6.56111         8.04489      -0.81556       0.42436
          air       -32.97066        13.83387      -2.38333       0.02719
     CONSTANT         0.89398        59.28178       0.01508       0.98812
 WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =     53306.53906
 DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =        20
 SCALE ESTIMATE          =        51.62680

And here the surprises start. For each 1% of HH in a state with
firearms there is approx 1.6 more missing persons. You might imagine
if UFO's were kidnapping people then households with firearms might at
least make them think twice, slow them down. But no. Either our mental
model of what is going on is wrong or they just don't care about HH
firearms.

We see from the other coeff that for each 1 mn people in a state
there are around 17 missing people (not taking other considerations
into account).

For each Cigar UFO reported there are 57 missing people reported.

The number of Army bases in a state does not seem related to missing
persons in this context. This is not the same with all types of UFOs.

But the presence of AIR bases robustly seems related to lower missing
persons reports. For each AFB there are 33 fewer missing people
reported.

The mental model seems to come up -- Cigar type objects may be related
to missing people, but Air bases dissuade them from being as active as
they might have been otherwise.

The full list of 21 types of UFO makes interesting reading.  Some
types definitely are less active with more Army bases; some types are
more active with more air bases; etc.  And a lot of these patterns are
exactly the same as we've seen before using the FBI missing person
reports as well as other data that was at hand.

The case that "something is going on" builds.

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