Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: ufos and covid -- "nav model" version

[uploaded 18 times; last 17/09/2024]

We all love a good conspiracy theory. But some conspiracy theories
come with hard data.

In December 2019 China reported the first cases of an unknown
respiratory virus. By Feb it had spread to 90 countries incl the
USA. At the end of Feb the CDC reported the first confirmed US deaths
from the virus.  By March it had killed 3000 people worldwide.

On 20 Dec 2019 Pres Trump announced the creation of a new Space Force
that was to defend US and allied interests and operations in space.

If there's anything we love better than a good conspiracy theory it's
a big fat coincidence.

During the early months of the Pandemic I was working with a group to
produce a model that would predict the spread of the disease in
different countries. The model was intended to handle the mix of age
and other groups within mostly western countries to predict the load
they would be facing on their health systems.  The group used the
initial data on the virus. One of the easier to understand data-points
showed at least the initial bug was likely to create periodic surges
in typical populations. Approx every 100 days there would be a peak
in infections/hospitalizations.

The work showed, despite many announcements from part of the armchair
expert club that covid was a "mini flu" and would be of no real
importance, the developing data -- my robots did almost daily
downloads from the growing database at JHU -- showed it would be
brutal.  But a pattern that astounded me at various stages of the
Pandemic was there were ~100 day surges. And at a point where
international travel had been almost totally shut down these surges
seemed co-ordinated across most countries. The surges were coming
every 100 days very close to a multiple of 100 days since the first
cases were identified.

In a previous post I showed some initial attempt -- given I started
seeing black boomerangs and orbs during the record 9m Pandemic
Lock-down we had here in SE Australia -- to test a link between UFO
activity and covid cases.  Those results were maybe surprising because
they showed there was a strong statistical connection between UFO
sightings and covid cases around the same time (using daily data) but
it was unclear why. As usual in these kinds of studies the behaviour
of people reporting UFO sightings might make a statistical link a slam
dunk. E.g. it was often reported that "there was a surge in UFO
sightings over the Pandemic because people were in lockdown and had
more time to look at the sky and mistake Jupiter for a black
triangle".

For the past couple months I've been developing a simple behavioural
model for UFO's that links their supposed movement around the solar
system with daily UFO sightings across (mostly) N America.

This was a technique I used in a project a few years back that
predicted the movement and behaviour of customers with a particular
store loyalty card. When I took the job the company supplied voluminous
data on the behaviour of its 1000s of customers across its dozens of
stores. There weer also 100s of "test dates" from which you were meant
to provide a prediction of the next date that customer would come into
the store and how much they would spend.

Like many seemingly similar data science jobs you were expected to
create some kind of neural network that would spot patterns in the
data that would be able to spit out a "next date" and "amount spent".
But I realized quickly I didn't need to upload those gigabytes of
customer data. All we had to do was classify each customer by their
shopping behaviour. Some people shop every day. Some shop on one day a
week. Some come in on Saturn. Some do their main shopping at some
other store so they don't spend much. Some do their weekly shop at the
store and spend a large amount. By setting up a list of possible
(simple) behaviour for each customer we could find out what they
would do next by the specification of that behaviour. We didn't
actually need to see their voluminous spending record for the past 10
years. :)

I adapted some of the programs from this project to predicting UFO
behaviour.  Again we assumed the behaviour was simple at its heart.
I.e. assume UFO's move at constant speeds and in mostly straight lines
between their "take off" and "landing" points. Some percent of the
time they would be arriving on Earth and maybe be seen by someone and
maybe if seen then reported. The exercise was to find a list of
planets, comets, asteroids, moons or whatever so that we could line up
the days when simulated UFOs were due to complete their trip from some
remote asteroid and arrive on Earth with real reported UFO
activity. By twiddling the list of asteroids involved and the constant
speed parameter of the model we expected some kind of match to the
sightings reports. But it turned out to be quite a spectacularly
strong match.

Not only did the ups and downs of the simulated UFO arrivals "look a
lot like" the ups and downs of NUFORC sighting reports, the model
could be "validated".  I.e. just using the first 1/2 (say) of the UFO
sighting data we could find a set of asteroids and speed to appear to
be close.  But the simulation for the other 1/2 of the data that had
not been "seen" by the software when it was twiddling the list of
asteroids and speed was ALSO a close match. The model was "predicting"
UFO sightings accurately into the future.

But now we have a model that predicts UFO activity we can move it on
to predict other things with the same inputs. Can movement of UFO's
between various asteroids and Earth predict e.g. covid cases?

From that earlier work that found strong statistical links between UFO
sightings and COVID cases we have to expect that it well.  But,
again, the actual results are astoundingly close.  We have not proved
that some part of the UFO phenomenon was responsible for infecting
people with COVID, but it must be a contender to explain what was has
been going on.

So let's look at some results. Previous posts using what I have called
the "nav model" have shown links between UFO activity and various
other things aside from just UFO sightings. What I have done in those
posts is look at lists of different asteroids, different sets of
parameters like "UFO travel speed in space", and come up with a
"match" value that shows how close the phenomenon is predicted by the
simulated UFO activity.  As people that have been working in
paranormal research for decade have maintained, many strange things
seem to be linked together from cryptid sightings to national power
outages, crop circles, and poltergeist reports and many things
in-between. The "nav model" seems to be a common basis to predict all
these things better than chance accuracy. As I've characterised the
idea -- "it's all them".

In those prev results we often found that some phenomenon is
"promoted" by UFO activity -- i.e. more simulated (or reported) UFO's
seems to be associated with more national power fails or airline
accidents, but also in some cases we find more simulated UFO arrivals
should be expected to be associated with LESS of most of the same
activities and phenomena.

Again, a simple mental model -- something talked about for decades by
paranormal and UFO researchers -- there are "good UFOs" and "bad
UFOs".  And so it is with UFOs v COVID.

To nail down a connection with the development of the disease we can
take the JHU data on reported daily infections in the US (e.g.)  and
back date them 14 d. We then try to find a pattern of simulated UFO
arrivals on Earth that match up with those backdated cases.
I.e. "somehow" those arrivals might be associated with the initiation
of COVID cases in the US.

And so we have at least 2 tables. Simulations that show some UFO's
STRONGLY are associated with increasing COVID infections and some
arrivals that are apparently STRONGLY associated with decreasing
COVID infections.

While the output from the simulations is voluminous a summary of the
top 10 findings in each case (i.e. "positive" and "negative"
associations) are as follows

POSITIVE (i.e. "bad UFOs"):
Asteroids PEarth   Speed    PLeave     PInteract  Trans  R2             Beta
1 9 0 15 0.0787227 0.213273 0.00954145 0.207096-xlog    0.82418478      2.52691 
1 9 10 20 0.085603 0.195608 0.0274132 0.142134-xlog     0.75976578      2.97012 
17 31 35 90 0.0723708 0.545837 0.0104467 0.406627log    0.74840836      0.313286 
1 9 60 75 0.0563711 0.1868 0.0107255 0.411756-xlog      0.74386109      2.19968 
6 16 2 30 0.0772415 0.697179 0.0101464 0.372858-x-ylog2r 0.74085184     0.431131 
1 9 0 30 0.0627907 0.702974 0.00928706 0.17477-x-ysqrt  0.74047415      2.02149 
0 14 0 3 0.0686608 0.56931 0.00973167 0.202983sqrt      0.73282516      76.528 
0 11 54 64 0.0669813 0.571563 0.00933922 0.390613-xlog  0.73178584      2.67666 
0 13 20 26 0.0594289 0.723911 0.000906233 0.182726log   0.72405601      1.86568 
0 11 0 15 0.0582989 0.74325 0.0107162 0.352307-xlog     0.71587771      3.33135 

NEGATIVE (i.e. "good UFOs"):
Asteroids PEarth   Speed    PLeave     PInteract  Trans  R2             Beta
10 20 70 90 0.0834357 0.615673 0.0287704 0.141967-xsqrt 0.78445327      -250.091 
0 11 30 60 0.0602042 0.65725 0.0010802 0.206534log      0.67157947      -2.10707 
15 25 70 90 0.0612746 0.216417 0.000960809 0.361898log  0.64213588      -0.685438 
30 40 10 27 0.0565776 0.20414 0.00987691 0.128681-xsqrt 0.60465485      -190.768 
0 40 140 156 0.05536 0.186949 0.000939478 0.188272-xlog 0.57185272      -3.67888 
1 9 45 60 0.0609646 0.633403 0.00108593 0.128858log     0.56718478      -2.82789 
0 21 30 32 0.0702795 0.5511 0.00101703 0.150664-xsqrt   0.55783043      -729.651 
1 9 30 60 0.0694592 0.664265 0.000972396 0.191556log    0.55301363      -1.54122 
0 19 60 63 0.065392 0.209476 0.000996015 0.132148log    0.55024630      -1.91429 
1 9 70 90 0.0724115 0.200451 0.000969643 0.181384log    0.53721415      -2.51558 

OK. Another mess of numbers without much meaning to most. But the
upshot is the simulation finds that well-defined sets of
asteroids/comets in particular parts of the solar system are strongly
predictive of more daily COVID cases while other parts of the solar
system are strongly predictive of LESS covid cases. One set of
asteroids seem to be "friends" and the other set "NMEs".

The R2 statistic for each simulation run shows what fraction of daily
COVID cases over the period (2020-2022 here) are predicted by the
program.  Often 70, 80 or even higher percent. An astounding level,
even for one of my models. :)

If we ignore the lower 9 results in each case we can perhaps VERY
ROUGHLY characterise who are the apparent good guys and who are the
bad guys.

"Bad UFOs" hang out on asteroids, comets, planets, moons that are
between 1 and 9AU from the sun (i.e. between Earth and just a little
this side of Saturn) with inclinations 0 to 15 deg above the ecliptic
(i.e. where most of the solar system is located). They travel at
relatively low speed -- .2 AU/d -- and only select to come to Earth
about 8 times in 100. When they come they hang around for years.

"Good UFOs" hang out at asteroids &ct 10-20 AU from the Sun -- between
Saturn and Uranus -- with inclinations 70 to 90 deg. Very few
asteroids hang around at these inclinations. The list at JPL is
roughly 3000 long out of the million(s) of rocks known. The Good Guys
zip along at around .6 AU/d (3x the bad guys) and tend to go back home
after staying on Earth a month.

These models don't show the Bad Guys are deliberately trying to harm
humanity. Maybe they just spread it around carelessly or even
unknowingly.  The Good Guys seem to behave like cops. They swoop in
and sort out the situation and go back home again shortly after.

It turns out the same kind of characterisation separates solar system
objects into "good" and "bad". Similar exercises on a growing list of
activities (currently 94 of them) indicate UFO's hanging around
asteroids &ct INSIDE the orbit of Saturn are generally NOT HELPFUL but
UFO's originating from asteroids &ct in the outer solar system are
beneficial or act to negate the effects of the Bad Guys.

One of the 94 activities I've looked at are "interactions" seen
between UFO's and military aircraft. It seems interactions that seem
to be jets chasing off UFO's are largely associated with Bad Guys.

But the situation seems to be complicated. Looking at the various
missing persons databases (incl the NUFORC's list of claimed attempted
abductions), Havana syndrome, FBI "found wandering in the street with
no idea who they were" and "missing time" reports (also in the NUFORC
database) indicate all of these activities seem to be associated with
both inner and outer system asteroids.

This only stands to reason. The Good Guys are not all "good" (from a
human point of view) and, presumably, the Bad Guys are not all bad.

--
J. Allen Hynek & Project Blue Book: UFO Secrets Revealed
Popular Mechanics, 02 Apr 2024 22:59Z
Explore the UFO mysteries J. Allen Hynek uncovered with Project Blue Book
and how his findings challenged the Air Force's narrative on extraterrestrial...

Edinburg celebrates extraterrestrial culture with UFO Festival and Conference
valleycentral, 03 Apr 2024 03:57Z
The City of Edinburg will host its annual UFO Festival and Conference. The
three-day event runs from April 4 through 6. On day one, a free open mic
night at the ...

More UFO hearings coming, Rep. Tim Burchett says
NewsNation, 02 Apr 2024 21:57Z
Although the Pentagon report denies any evidence of extraterrestrial activity,
some have suggested it is just an attempt to ...

Indian police spot glowing UFOs zig-zagging over nuclear power plant -
mirroring reports of craft at sensitive bases in US
MSN, 28 Mar 2024
DailyMail.com has obtained two UFO videos recorded by an Indian police
official, depicting an apparent craft near India's Kudankulam nuclear plant.

Amazing UFO Sighting Over Hudson River Caught On Video
wpdh, 02 Apr 2024 20:33Z
Recent sighting was near the Hudson River by New Windsor and Cornwall, NY.
For over a century, the Hudson Valley has been a ...

Unidentified Blue Object In The Night Sky Stuns Arizona Residents
CNN-News18, 02 Apr 2024 18:32Z
The sighting was initially reported by an Arizona resident who was out for
an evening walk and described the object as a luminous cigar shaped UFO.

The Air Force Asked This Man to Investigate UFOs--Then Pushed Him Away After
What He Found
Popular Mechanics, 02 Apr 2024 13:31Z
His job was to uncover secrets from the unknown. But his curiosity opened
doors that the government preferred to keep closed.

Winston Churchill's UFO cover-up as declassified 'X-files' show ex-PM's
fears over leaks
Daily Express, 24 Mar 2024 18:49Z
The wartime leader and national hero worked around the clock to keep a lid
on the various UFO sightings made around the UK, ...

UFO truthers converge on Chuck Schumer's NYC office to celebrate humankind's
`ET moment'
Yahoo, 21 Mar 2024 23:42Z
A gathering of UFO believers touched down on Third Avenue Thursday afternoon
to thank Sen. Chuck Schumer for his efforts in ...

Scientists Say They've Found The Best Place to Spot a UFO in The US
ScienceAlert, 21 Mar 2024 23:41Z
The analysis of reports recorded in the past couple of decades and measures
of features such as sky cover and lighting ...

US Navy admiral who saw secret UFO files is totally convinced aliens are 'real'
Irish Star, 20 Mar 2024 15:44Z
Retired Rear Admiral Tim Gallaudet says he's "totally convinced" that the
earth is being visited by a non-human technological civilisation,...

World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47	<== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer