Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: uses of detection networks: ufos and covid

[uploaded 42 times; last 26/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We re-visit the links between UFO sightings and covid across the US,
  this time via detections reported in the NUFORC's "MADAR" network.
- Automatic detectors avoid problems associated with observer
  behavior.  Detectors (nominally) operate 24/7 and don't take a break
  because of wet weather.
- We find there is a statistically strong +ve link between MADAR
  detections -- adjusted by number of stations installed in a state --
  and that state's total covid cases up to the end of 2021.
- It's hard to escape the conclusion that some segment of UFO activity
  may be related to the pandemic. A more detailed looks shows there is
  at least one unambiguous strong suspect UFO type responsible for the
  +ve link, while there may also be other UFO types linked with
  reducing levels of covid.
- If patterns persist the next peak in cases is to be expected around
  mid June. A 100-day cycle in peaks may be related to parameters of
  the virus but also suspiciously coincides with motions of a certain
  rocky inner planet.


We've looked at the NUFORC's "MADAR" network before. It's known that
at least some UFO's disturb the local geomagnetics enough to detect,
and the group has built and installed 100s of magnetic detectors
across the US in the past 2-3 years.

By my count the state-by-state setup looks like:

State	Number of MADAR stations
	(as at end 2021)
Alabama		1
Arizona		4
Arkansas	4
California	7
Colorado	9
Connecticut	4
Florida		6
Georgia		7
Idaho		1
Illinois	5
Indiana		12
Iowa		1
Kansas		4
Kentucky	2
Maine		1
Maryland	2
Massachusetts	3
Michigan	2
Minnesota	1
Missouri	7
Montana		1
Nevada		1
New.Hampshire	1
New.Jersey	4
New.Mexico	2
New.York	12
North.Carolina	1
North.Dakota	1
Ohio		12
Oklahoma	1
Oregon		1
Pennsylvania	10
Rhode.Island	1
South.Carolina	1
Tennessee	2
Texas		5
Utah		1
Virginia	1
Washington	9

The beauty part of such public transparent science -- USAF please note
-- is the data gathered by this kind of groundwork has unpredictable
and unbounded applications.

While the instruments may be limited in various ways, the main point
I'd like to underline in this study is they run (nominally :) 24/7 and
don't likely rely in the patterns of daily travel or observation of the
sky other UFO sightings are subject to. While they may not detect
every kind of UFO or every UFO within a state they at least behave
relatively consistently. And this can be a vital leg-up for various
kinds of data analysis.

With UFO sighting reports from citizens there is always the problem of
trying to extract characteristics of the sightings that relate to the
behaviour of the objects in question themselves, and the factors
affecting the observers. If we find there are more sightings in cold
weather we can't be entirely sure weather is affecting UFO's somehow
-- maybe they don't work so well in cold air -- or it's simply a
matter of people staying indoors in cold weather and being less able
or inclined to look at things buzzing around in the skies.

With instruments that (somewhat!) goes away. While there is an issue
with the growth in the numbers and placement of detectors, at a first
approximation we can assume the detector events over the past couple
of years are relatively consistent. If the MADAR network says there
were more detections in a certain month we can be fairly sure there
were more UFO's in those months rather than just being the result of
people being more likely outside and looking up in those months.

And this assumption can allow us to examine things that are difficult
to look at otherwise.

Take the possible link between the COVID pandemic and UFO activity.
We have earlier noted there are suspicious robust statistical links
between covid cases in the US and elsewhere and UFO activity as
mostly witnessed across N America. In regions with more UFO sightings
there have generally been more covid cases, for example. More UFO
sightings are also linked strongly to covid cases per capita. In
months with more UFO sightings there are generally more new covid
cases.  But we also find that if we look at UFO sightings in a state
per capita there are still strong links with covid per capita but the
relationship switches sign from +ve to -ve.

There is a typical analysis dilemma caused by confounding factors.
The population of a state is linked with both sightings and covid
cases.  It seems there is also a link between population and rate of
covid cases per capita.

While we can try to adjust data all to per capita terms that does not
solve any problems. Because population can interact with UFO sightings
in more than one way.

If we examine state populations and UFO sightings we find that
sightings of some kinda of objects grow slower than linearly.
Typically, expressed as a power low, the power relating population and
sightings is less than or much less than 1.

IOW somehow larger states "repl" UFO sightings.

The problem only gets more complex when we consider the totality of
sightings is the sum of all the different categories we can divide UFO
sightings into. Each group potentially reacts differently to state
populations.

But with the MADAR data a lot of this (to a first approximation! :)
goes away.

If we compare state by state MADAR sightings (adjusted for the number
of detectors in each state) against e.g. total covid cases per capita
we find something like the following:

States like:    Av MADAR sightings  av total covid     Model estimate
                per station        cases per mn cap   covid cases per mn
                2020-2021          as at end 2021
Rhode.Island              1        127603             120198
Virginia                  3        106622             124098*
New.Mexico          3.80476        135394             125667
Texas                4.7375        132702             127486
Oregon              5.90178        110008             129756*
Iowa                6.98148        144279             131861
Missouri            8.34524        108941             134521*
Washington              9.5        136411             136772
Arizona                10.5        156534             138722*
Minnesota                11        124612             139697
Michigan             11.625        137830             140916
Montana                  13        136831             143597
South.Carolina           15        169574             147497*
North.Dakota             18        166486             153346
Idaho                    26        147175             168946*
(ordered by MADAR column).

The states have been binned by the MADAR sightings. States within +-2
MADAR events per station are averaged in the same line/bin with the
named state just one of those in that bin.

The output from the stats program looks like:

y = 1949.91*x + 118248
beta in 1949.91 +- 1193.4  (90% CI)
alpha in 118248 +- 14232.8
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.993918
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.735294
	Critical Spearman = 0.601000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.37168782

The linear model finds 37% of COVID cases are explained by
state-to-state variations in MADAR events. For each event/station
during the past 3y in a state there have been around 1950 cases per mn
(+-1200 90% confidence interval) for those states.

The relationship is stat significant in two ways, meaning
we're fairly sure (roughly 1 chance in 1000 maybe upto 1 chance in
10,000) there is a link between MADAR detections and the level of
COVID in similar states.

It seems at least *some* segment of the UFO activity is suspiciously
connected with the pandemic. While we can find some types of UFO's
seem to be at least nominally connected with lower covid rates, the
overall MADAR link is +ve.

One last point -- and I don't like to point fingers -- the only
"shape" of UFO that seems to unambiguously after all the relevant
adjustments have been made seem to be +ve linked with the pandemic are
pyramid UFO's. While most other shapes seem to be -ve connected, some
of that -- given the overall +ve found via the MADAR data -- may be
related to how different types of objects react to state populations.
It's possible the detailed but difficult-to-pin-down minutiae of how UFO
sightings connect with more observers/more possible virus cases could
still connect positively other types of UFO with increased covid cases.

We might recall some FLIR video evidence from S America showing a UFO
floating and emitting a stream of something into the air.
Experimentation has apparently shown the properties of the stream are
different from some substances tested e.g. smoke.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

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