Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: cattle mutilations and the 1970s

[uploaded 53 times; last 02/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We can ask an AI "what is odd about the 1970s". Already we know the
  1970s is a bit odd because it featured a rash of reports of cattle
  with their faces cut off across the western US. The reports got so
  thick even the FBI was called on to look at it.
- The AI chugs away and spits out a list of known datasets that can be
  simply manipulated to finger the 1970s and no other years.  The top
  fits include our old friends Saturn, Uranus and Flying Disks.
- A lot of other data series can point out the 1970s, but they also
  tend to "ping" other years as well. The planets and UFO data are the
  "best explanation" the s/w can find.
- The models found seem to agree very roughly -- given we asked a
  rather vague question.
- The models also predict cattle mutilations -- if they are in fact
  related to Saturn, Uranus and Disks -- still continues at a lower
  level than the 1970s. We might also predict another big up-tick
  around the time when Saturn and/or Uranus again approach perihelion.
  The "Saturn" model says around perihelion -- 2002, then 2031.  
  The "Uranus" model says around 10y after -- 2059.
  Did the 2002 peak (+-) happen?


We've had a look at this before. But something the s/w has thrown up
at me this week relates and is fairly interesting from an AI point of view.

We recall we've looked at the "big FBI Report" into cattle mutilations
in the 1970s. As an apologia for the "report", the FBI pointed out
looking at butchered cows was not generally in its area of
responsibility.  Which might explain the rather sketchy document it
produced in the 1970s that listed a couple dozen reports of animal
mutilations with some additions at the end (the quality of the
document when it got to the PDF-making stage makes it fairly unclear)
written in what seemed to be pencil.

We ran those numbers through my s/w and it did come up with an
interesting list of possibilities for what best explained the pattern
of dates seen in the report.

But the s/w can do a bit more. AI's can answer "vague" questions as
well as specific ones.

Given cattle mutilations hit the headlines in the US during the 70s --
some wikipedia pages say the rash of reports lasted from 1973-1983 --
we could ask the program -- what is so strange about the 1970s?

As we recall the s/w has a list of 10s of 1000s of datasets from
various govt and NGO agencies around the world related to mostly
weather and satellite observations, but also a lot of data on the
evolution of economic data in rich and poor countries, plus all manner
of other odds and sods the program has uploaded by using google/bing
searches.

So what is weird about the 1970s? We give the AI a dataset that shows
years 1950-2020 with a 1 or 0 next to them depending on whether the
year is "interesting" (i.e. within the 1970s) or not.

It chugs away for a few mins and spits out a lit of datasets that
"look similar" to the target data we gave it, along with some stats
showing "how similar" it is. All the stats has been run through a few
packages I trust and the s/w knows how to run and also how to
interpret the text output (e.g. looking for error messages or unusual
conditions in the output ASCII plots :) and have shown to be
statistically significant in at least 2 ways better than 90%
confidence (IOW 10% or less chance the relationship could be just due
to chance).


Suspect			Lag	R2
			(y)
sdsaturn-v		1	 0.78547796
sduranus-v		10	 0.77604360
ufo-Disk		0	 0.39706604
preband80		10	 0.28790204
ant170			1	 0.22532102
minmoon-r		0	 0.16713256
preseg160		5	 0.13669447
minkenya		10	 0.13381989
cosmic-OULU		1	 0.12696118
minaravgArcocean	0	 0.09475654
stormseg-160		1	 0.09380508
lat-80			0	 0.05671197

Each line gives the name of a dataset in the code the AI uses, a
number of years it uses to "lag" the suspect data to make it look
closer to the target data (in this case the list of years 1970-1979)
and the "explanation power" of the suspect data to predict whether the
years listed are "interesting" or "not interesting".

It claims the "sdsaturn-v" lagged by 1 year predicts around 78% of the
interesting years.

The 2nd line is a similar thing, but for Uranus, and lagged by 10
years not 1. Kinda befits a planet that is much further out and has a
longer orbit.

And the 3rd item suggests sightings of "Disk" objects also predicts
the 1970s around 40% of the time.

It seems the program is suggesting the best explanation for the 1970s
appearing in our list is "something to do with Saturn, maybe Uranus
and Disk UFO's and maybe other things that look like predictors of
western US winter weather"..

Let's have a look at a couple of these in more detail.

Here's the model for the "sdsaturn-v" dataset.

(Serial corr detected; estimated rho = 0.671802)
y = 0.137581*x + -0.220647
beta in 0.137581 +- 0.0174059  90% CI
alpha in -0.220647 +- 0.166409 
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
r2 = 0.78547796

Dataset:
(binned into decades for brevity)
Decade	av x          av y      av model-predicted y
1950	3.27411		0	0.229809
1960	3.42266		0	0.250246
1970	14.7949		4.08	1.81486
1980	3.25553		0	0.227251
1990	3.55803		0	0.268871
2000	3.89511		0	0.315246

It shows the variable/model "predicts" years other than the 1970s
should be 0, but the 1970s years should be modestly interesting.

The interest part comes because Saturn reached its closest approach to
the sun in 1973. This makes the variation of the "v" angle -- the
angle between the planet's perihelion and current position in degrees
-- suddenly switch from 360 to 0 during the year making the "stddev"
quite large which is why the AI has spotted it.  The stats don't think
this can be a total coincidence.  And, beside, nothing else it has
does any better and most of it does a lot worse.

Here's the model for the "Disk UFO" dataset.


(Serial corr detected; estimated rho = 0.504612)
y = 0.113894*x + -1.28638
beta in 0.113894 +- 0.0313676  90% CI
alpha in -1.28638 +- 0.324333 
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
r2 = 0.39706604

Dataset:
(binned into decades for brevity)
Decade	av x          av y      av model-predicted y
1930	1		0		-1.17248
1940	2.33		0		-1.02062
1950	7.78		0		-0.400535
1960	15		0		0.422033
1970	35.8		5.22		2.79103
1980	15.8		0		0.513149
1990	18.4		0		0.809273
2000	14		0		0.308139

Again the model seems to "ping" into it largest value (2.8) for the
1970s and registered very low for other years.  The "Disk" data also
(not surprisingly) peaks in this dataset (the NUFORC database) for the
1970s at about 36 sightings a year, and falls off pretty quickly
before and after.

Certainly not enough to convict in a court of law, but the stats is
suggesting "something" related to Saturn (and maybe Uranus) and maybe
also related to "Disk" UFO's seemingly has an affinity for the decade
where cattle mutilations hit the headlines and supposedly "peak" in
the US.

Of course if these links are anything they also predict that the
phenomenon did not go to zero outside the 1970s.  The "saturn" data
suggests non-1970s years really see a level of activity very very
roughly around .25 compared with 1.8 for the 1970s -- i.e. around 13%
compared with the "peak".

And the Disk model suggests at the 1980s-2000s were at a level around
.5 compared with the 1970s 2.8 -- around 18% very very roughly.

In very very rough terms they're both saying the same kind of thing.

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