Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: vanishing formations

[uploaded 59 times; last 31/10/2024]

<https://www.latest-ufo-sightings.net/2021/12/one-of-the-most-amazing-ufo-videos-ive-seen-lately-filmed-at-39000ft-over-the-south-china-sea.html>

LUFOs has an interesting vid of a formation of 12 fuzzy objects
apparently convoying in 3 rows of 4. Some objects come and go and
eventually the whole lot fade away.  

The vid was taken from a plane at much higher alt off to the right of
the convoy.  

Comments on the LUFO's page include one that the group is in "echelon
formation" that is supposedly "a very human formation".  But an
echelon is a slant-wise formation that allows aircraft or tanks in the
line to cover one flank of the tank/plane in front and also have good
visibility not blocked by aircraft/tanks to either side.  That's not
what the objects in the vid are doing. They don't seem to care about
visibility or covering the man in front of them.  

Exactly what they *are* up to is -- of course -- not clear. :)


I gathered the list of similar formations reported to NUFORC -- i.e.
reports that mention multiple objects "in formation" and also saying
the objects ended up fading away to nothing. There are more than 70
such reports since ~2006:

Year	#"vanishing formation" sightings (NUFORC)
2006	3
2007	5
2008	2
2009	6
2010	1
2011	5
2012	6
2013	8
2014	5
2015	2
2016	6
2017	6
2018	3
2019	5
2020	5
2021	3

The reason for the "2006" in the dataset is a peculiarity of NUFORC
that changed from mail/telephone reporting to a web form in Mar 2006.
The change-over meant the number and type of reports radically changed
from that point.

So at least the above data is comparable across the range Jan 2006
through Nov 2021.

We can throw this data to an AI-based s/w I'm tinkering up to try to
find out what (if anything) explains why the sightings have this
pattern.  The theory is that "everything is connected" to some extent
when it comes to events on planet dirt, so we *should* be able to find
some dataset of sat-based numbers that will look very much like the
list of sightings, above, and the ones that are closest -- in data
science parlance "high explanation power" -- should start to indicate
what the objects are and what the heck they are up to.

The AI thinks for a few mins and comes up with a very long list of
data it has uploaded from various NASA and other sites that "look
like" the sightings numbers. Statistical tests are used to make sure
the match-up is not just luck-of-the-draw but actually means something.

E.g. if the most extreme values of one dataset ("outliers") match up
very closely with the most extreme values of another dataset we assume
the 2 datasets are somehow causally connected. To decide whether a
steering wheel is actually connected to the wheels of a car you might
like to jerk it around randomly from left lock to right lock and if
the wheels seem to follow the jerking around to a left max and right
max turn you have to assume the steering wheel "controls" the wheels.

The first 10 items from the list the s/w comes up with are these:

Suspect		transf		R2		Beta		(stderr)
muah_mtSoPol	0o1.5		0.92192405	 5.71888 +- 0.817439 
mfireseg-110	0o1.5		0.91819883	 -0.000125196 +- 2.28333e-05 
mfireseg160	0o1.5-y		0.90855602	 -1.45965e-05 +- 2.82954e-06 
mfireseg60	0o1.5-y		0.90295350	 -1.69444e-05 +- 3.39431e-06 
mufo-pink	0o1.5		0.88994172	 0.16233 +- 0.0268721 
mufo-pink2020	0o1.5		0.88994172	 0.16233 +- 0.0268721 
mpresseg-180	0o1.5		0.88988048	 0.180243 +- 0.0416856 
msdiraq		5o1.5		0.88911159	 4.22713 +- 0.98146 
mfireseg-60	0o1.5-y		0.88247299	 -8.87424e-06 +- 1.97887e-06 
muah_mtSoPolLand 0o1.5		0.87880165	 3.87798 +- 0.740966 


So at least for vanish formations witnessed in mostly the US (NUFORC
does get other reports but 90%+ are from the US) if you know the
"uah_mtSoPol" data for the year you can 92% predict how many will be seen.

That particular data is the average "middle troposphere temperature"
above Antarctica for the year. For each 1C warmer it predicts about
5.7 "vanishing formations" will be seen over the US.

The hypothesis might be that these objects somehow originate around
Antarctica and the temperature there may favour seeing more or less of
them.  (Don't worry, we're going to look at a plot at the bottom to
show something more concrete. Stay with me :).

Other items on the list say the amount of wildfires along a certain
longitude bands also highly predict the number of these events.  The
fire data is measured in number of ha burned per 1000 km2 grid square
in the course of a year. E.g. along the band 110-100W each 100,000 ha
burned per 1000 km2 of land area predicts there will be 12.5 FEWER
sightings of vanishing formations over the US.

Also in the top 10 links are a couple other longitude bands.

The AI of course had access to every lat and long band but the lat
bands don't show up very high in the list. This suggests these objects
perhaps fly along those particular longitude bands which is why smoke
in those areas might affect whether they bother to fly all the way to
the US to be seen.

In the case of the LUFOs sighting -- of course -- that was over the
South China Sea. No guessing which longitude band that might
correspond to from our table. The AI has more or less predicted
without access to this LUFO report that these objects "might" be seen
anywhere along band 160-170E.

This band, of course, corresponds with the eastern coast of Australia
as well as some nice little islands like the Solomons. According to
the AI all these locations MIGHT also see vanishing formation events.

But we cant just end there. Once the AI has initially set its sights
on certain longitude bands we can zero in and ask which exact areas
along those bands are most closely linked by some data or other to the
list of sightings 2006-2021 listed at the top.

And this is where the map comes in.

<kym.massbus.org/UFO/vfmap.gif>

I apologise in advance for the crudeness of the density plot.  It does
at least indicate the maximum-likely places (deeper blue) along those
bands where things might be seen. Amusingly the AI has tended to mark
locations near the coast of various continents as the "most likely
places".  It's nice when it figures these things out without needed to
be told that people that make sightings tend to be on or very near dry
land.  It give you confidence that the predictions the AI is making
might actually have something to them. It seems to be doing "science".

We can see one corridor it found starts in West Antarctica, goes along
a corridor that includes our old friend Easter Island, then turns blue
around N Mexico/S California, crossing Oregon, Washington, British
Columbia then jumping over to N Canada presumably to somewhere in
the middle of the Arctic Ocean.

Another band starts in coastal Antarctica, proceeds up the Indian
ocean, past Madagascar, hits the Gulf and lands in Iraq, jumps some
territory and lands in coastal N Russia -- one of my favorite UFO
hunting grounds.

The other band, as indicated before, goes from Eastern Antarctica,
along the Australian coast, over Papua New Guinea, skips to some
islands, skips to the ocean off E Japan, skips coastal China and
Russia and ends up on the N coast of far E Russia.

All very interesting and almost all locations we've heard from
time-to-time have had interesting UFO/USO activity reported for at
least the past 70 years if not very very much longer.

--
[Nuttin Two Hyde!]
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