Newsgroups: alt.astronomy
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: do ufo's come from mars?

[uploaded 54 times; last 17/10/2024]

Given there is now official interest in UFO's and Congress has ordered
a report within 180 days in the light of continued ructions from the
"tic tac"/Nimitz incident in 2004, let's use our data science know-how
to decide whether there is simple evidence that UFO's *may* be
travelling between Earth and Mars.

A recent interview with a former Israeli intel chief saw him suggest
that UFO's were run by space aliens they had a federation and
a base on Mars that even featured one or more human astronauts.

This may appear ridiculous. But real science is able to analyze
questions based on data rather than "gut feeling" aka prejudice.

It's a great pity scientific research still clings to the logic of
geometry and tends to presume things that cant be proven, even if
there is some evidence for them, are "false".

In probability theory, and some areas of data science, if there are
choices for which there is poor or zero evidence it has to be presumed
each choice has equal probability. Are UFO's from Mars?  If you know
nothing then you should assume probability they are is 50% rather than "no".

So let us proceed to see what the data says.

I'll draw my "UFO" numbers from the online data from the NUFORC since
2006. The year is significant because the organisation launched a web
report form then. Previously it had been telephone reports and/or
field investigators. The obvious feature you can "see" in the data is
before 2006 there were only around 1/10 the monthly reports there have
been since 2006. By some estimates UFO reports from ~1930 to ~2000
were 90% mistakes, hoaxes, or something other "everyday". 10% were
"hard to explain". It seems from analysis of post 2006 data and NUFORC
only around 1% of current reports are something other than Starlink or
a drone dragging a bunch of Xmas lights at 30,000 ft. Only 1% are
"very interesting".

I'll draw my "mars" data from a simple simulation of the relevant
orbits. If it is the case that the distance to Mars has "something to
do with" the number of UFO sightings reported to NUFORC (mostly from
the US, but also from Canada and some from further afield) there should
be some significant statistical correlation.

I'll also add another hurdle for the model to pass. It must also
estimate the phases of the 2 orbits and predict a particularly close
approach from the Red Planet that happened last year. If we find a
significant corr AND ALSO there is a small distance in mid 2020 then we must
have found *something*.  Although it is hard to say exactly what. :)

  As a note: by similar means you might also find that UFO's are closely
  associated with each polar region, esp Antarctica and the Ant
  Penn. Their sightings in the N and S hem also seem to follow the
  complex pattern of plankton blooming much more closely than expected
  by chance alone. Plankton has a complex pattern with 3 blooms in each
  hem per year. The major bloom happens in midyear with smaller peaks
  either side. The S and N hem pattern are offset by a few months. It
  seems unlikely some phenomenon will flip flop back and forth in
  reasonable synchronization with these cycles and not be connection
  with them in some way.

Anyway. Here's the "best" model a little program comes up with:

y = -78.4246*log(x) + 488.67
beta in -78.4246 +- 39.7396   90% CI
alpha in 488.67 +- 25.2738
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = -3.26452 at 164 d.f.
|t| > tc (1.65421 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta < 0.000000
t < tc (-1.28673 left tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 0.998665
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999333
r2 = 0.0610171
calculated Spearman corr = -0.180791
Critical Spearman = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%; accept H0:not_related

Data:
Date			 E-M dist (AU)  #UFO reports  model-est #UFO rep
2006.21                   2.51915           63      416.211**(2s too high)
2006.29                   2.51974          275      416.193
2006.38                   2.48425          294      417.305
2006.46                   2.41282          343      419.593
2006.54                   2.30777          430      423.084
2006.62                   2.16929          415      427.938
2006.71                   2.00134          319      434.257
2006.79                   1.80668          392      442.282
2006.88                   1.58944          404      452.329
2006.96                   1.35457          378      464.869
2007.04                   1.11123          437      480.398
2007.12                  0.870366          264      499.558*(+2s)
2007.21                  0.659287          358      521.341*(+1s)
2007.29                  0.533317          312       537.97*(+1s)
2007.38                   0.56198          315      533.865*(+1s)
2007.46                  0.726742          432      513.701
2007.54                  0.951441          462      492.573
2007.62                   1.19598          467      474.634
2007.71                   1.43716          447      460.227
2007.79                   1.66682          443      448.601
2007.88                   1.87639          373      439.313
2007.96                   2.06297          351      431.879
2008.04                   2.22026          471      426.116
2008.12                   2.34779          366      421.736
2008.21                   2.44156          338      418.665
2008.29                   2.50052          433      416.794
2008.38                   2.52365          340      416.071
2008.46                    2.5105          483      416.481
2008.54                   2.46147          566      418.028
2008.62                   2.37702          504      420.766
2008.71                   2.25901          389      424.759
2008.79                   2.10941          535      430.133
2008.88                   1.93098          453      437.064
2008.96                   1.72641          343      445.846
2009.04                   1.50284          486      456.723
2009.12                   1.26284          386      470.368
2009.21                   1.01885          337      487.205
2009.29                  0.784865          313      507.667*
2009.38                  0.597581          356      529.048*
2009.46                   0.52424          394      539.317
2009.54                  0.612113          607      527.163
2009.62                  0.807613          499      505.427
2009.71                    1.0434          588      485.338
2009.79                   1.28789          323      468.828
2009.88                   1.52582          316      455.533
2009.96                   1.74886          285      444.833*
2010.04                   1.94982          289      436.302
2010.12                   2.12587          190      429.523*
2010.21                    2.2724          259      424.296*
2010.29                   2.38709          291      420.434
2010.38                   2.46792          331      417.823
2010.46                   2.51347          384      416.388
2010.62                   2.49609          536      416.933
2010.71                   2.43365          450      418.919
2010.79                   2.33622          468      422.124
2010.88                   2.20625          364      426.613
2010.96                   2.04542          308      432.548
2011.04                   1.85701          327      440.127
2011.12                   1.64402          269      449.681*
2011.21                   1.41367          331       461.52
2011.29                   1.17076          310      476.306*
2011.38                   0.92786          319      494.542*
2011.46                  0.706325          414      515.936
2011.54                  0.551893          779      535.285*
2011.62                  0.539829          642      537.019
2011.71                  0.677983          556      519.148
2011.79                  0.893901          636      497.466
2011.88                   1.13548          443      478.705
2011.96                   1.37834          529      463.505
2012.04                   1.61181          580      451.233
2012.12                   1.82784          388      441.369
2012.21                   2.01957          531      433.546
2012.29                   2.18493          505      427.374
2012.38                   2.31945          520      422.689
2012.46                   2.42159          763      419.309**
2012.71                   2.51711          767      416.275**
2012.79                   2.47667          671      417.545*
2012.88                   2.40104          778      419.977**
2012.96                   2.29118          669       423.65*
2013.04                   2.14882          393      428.681
2013.12                   1.97679          279      435.225*
2013.21                   1.77885          395        443.5
2013.29                   1.55896          426      453.847
2013.38                   1.32279          535      466.731
2013.46                   1.07901          656      482.706*
2013.62                  0.635824          909      524.183**
2013.71                  0.527291          780      538.861*
2013.79                  0.578014          796      531.659*
2013.88                  0.753828          801      510.832*
2013.96                  0.983546          767      489.971*
2014.04                   1.22771          701      472.581*
2014.12                   1.46917          550        458.5
2014.21                   1.69569          520      447.254
2014.29                   1.90312          658      438.204*
2014.38                   2.08509          645      431.042*
2014.46                   2.23909          775      425.454**
2014.79                     2.524          793      416.061**
2014.88                   2.50607          533       416.62
2014.96                   2.45236          520      418.319
2015.04                   2.36337          538      421.217
2015.12                   2.24134          332      425.375
2015.21                   2.08715          477      430.965
2015.29                   1.90512          450      438.121
2015.38                   1.69835          463      447.131
2015.46                   1.47157          484      458.372
2015.54                   1.23119          732      472.359*
2015.62                  0.986977          619      489.698
2015.71                  0.756428          723      510.562*
2015.79                  0.579067          660      531.516
2015.88                  0.526891          880      538.921**
2015.96                  0.633757          432      524.438
2016.04                   0.83684          410      502.639
2016.12                   1.07504          425      482.995
2016.21                   1.32031          408      466.878
2016.29                   1.55661          385      453.966
2016.38                    1.7767          383      443.595
2016.46                   1.97452          434      435.316
2016.54                    2.1469          682      428.751*
2016.62                   2.28912          549      423.721
2016.71                    2.3999          586      420.015*
2016.79                   2.47607          488      417.564
2016.88                   2.51684          489      416.283
2016.96                    2.5215          349      416.138
2017.04                   2.48997          334      417.125
2017.12                    2.4228          414       419.27
2017.21                    2.3209          344       422.64
2017.29                   2.18617          407       427.33
2017.38                   2.02176          361      433.461
2017.46                   1.82993          418      441.279
2017.54                   1.61501          509      451.078
2017.62                   1.38222          407      463.284
2017.71                   1.13799          450      478.532
2017.79                  0.896303          483      497.255
2017.88                  0.679924          351      518.924*
2017.96                  0.540729          499      536.888
2018.04                  0.550745          310      535.448*
2018.12                  0.703104          226      516.295*
2018.21                  0.925429          233      494.747*
2018.29                   1.16727          217       476.54*
2018.38                   1.41075          239      461.682*
2018.46                   1.64174          229       449.79*
2018.54                   1.85415          408      440.248
2018.62                   2.04293          345      432.644
2018.71                   2.20446          288      426.676
2018.79                   2.33482          253      422.171*
2018.88                   2.43267          227      418.951*
2018.96                   2.49563          231      416.947*
2019.04                   2.52285          319      416.096
2019.12                   2.51386          198      416.376*
2019.21                   2.46856          300      417.802
2019.29                   2.38849          351      420.388
2019.38                   2.27374          505       424.25
2019.46                   2.12784          397       429.45
2019.54                   1.95214          555      436.209
2019.62                   1.75146          430      444.716
2019.71                   1.52819          573      455.411
2019.79                   1.29135          659      468.617*
2019.88                   1.04589          613      485.151
2019.96                  0.810345          655      505.162
2020.04                  0.614331          499       526.88
2020.12                  0.524343          525      539.301	<-- close approach
2020.21                  0.595822          743      529.279*
2020.38                   1.01588          455      487.434
2020.46                   1.26034          298      470.523*
2020.54                   1.49953          555      456.896
2020.62                   1.72421          619      445.946*

The model finds there is a weakly significant association.  One test
finds it's 99% certain that when Mars is closer there are more UFO
sightings; when it's further there are fewer.

The model makes predictions that are "mostly" close to the mark of actual
report numbers. But several months are estimated to be way higher than
actually observed.

In addition, the other stat test -- a Spearman Rank test -- finds
there is no real pattern to the report numbers vis a vis Mars
distance. But it may well be the case we should not expect all the
closer months to Mars have higher report numbers and further months
all have lower report numbers.

Finally, the model predicts a very close Mars around Feb/Mar at .52
AU. The "real" close approach was closer to the middle of the
year. But this calculation would seem reasonable given how simple the
model is (circular orbits).

Overall, there seems to be weak evidence that Mars has "something" to
do with UFO phenomena. The R2 statistic -- the "explanation power" of
the model -- shows that variations in the distance between E and M
corresponds with about 6% of the month-to-month variation in number of
UFO reports.  I.e. it does not pretend to explain all reports -- just
some fraction of them. By co-incidence it is roughly the fraction of
UFO reports that researchers in the field judge to be "hard to explain".

--
COVID-19 bill started a 180-day countdown for UFO disclosures
New York Post, 30 Dec 2020
The report must address "observed airborne objects that have not been
identified" and should include a "detailed analysis of unidentified
phenomena data ...

UFOs Are Still a Mystery, and 2020 Showed Us the DoD is Paying Attention
The Debrief, 31 Dec 2020
[...] The Pentagon's officially authorized release of Navy videos
depicting aerial phenomena on April 27, 2020 ranks among the
most noteworthy stories of the year, and arguably, in
the broader history of UFOs. The Dept of Defense "authorized the
release of 3 unclassified Navy videos, one taken in Nov 2004 and
the other 2 in Jan 2015, which have been circulating in the
public domain after unauthorized releases in 2007 and 2017," according to an
official Pentagon statement.
[...] "The aerial phenomena observed in the videos remain characterized
as `unidentified'," the statement concluded, adding a link to the
Naval Air Systems Command FOIA Reading Room where the files could be
downloaded and viewed.
If the objects in these videos were anything known to our
military--either from its own inventory or suspected of belonging to
that of an adversary--it seems unlikely that the DoD's "thorough
review" would have cleared them for release. This, in addition to
characterizing the aerial phenomena in question as "unidentified,"
which explicitly conveys that the objects appear to be of unknown origin.

UAP Task Force to Provide Report to Senate Intelligence Committee
The recent passing of the Intelligence Authorization Act for 2021 may
help shed light on the Pentagon's current investigations into UFOs.
The Debrief, 29 Dec 2020
Since it was first presented by the Senate Select Intelligence
Committee in June, this year's Intelligence Authorization Act has been
of unusual interest thanks to an included provision titled "Advanced
Aerial Threats." In this inclusion, the committee offered intriguing
support for the "efforts of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task
Force at the Office of Naval Intelligence" and requested the production
of an unclassified report detailing the analysis of UFOs, or as The
Pentagon now terms them, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) or
"Anomalous Aerial Vehicles."

Rendlesham Forest UFO: Are we any closer to the truth 40 years on?
BBC News, 26 Dec 2020

The Debrief @Debriefmedia 15 Dec 2020 13:56Z
New insights into recent controversial claims about a "Galactic
Federation" and aliens by Israel's former space chief!
#galacticfederation #aliens #space #ufo #ufotwitter
<https://t.co/qMSrGHpXHc>loom.ly/KmtorXQ
[Seems to be re-spin of well-known conspiracy theories dating back to
Eisenhower admin. The only new info relates to current US military
thinking that UFO/UAF are real but not necessarily ET].

UFO Expert Can't Think of a 'Rational Explanation' to UK Cop's ...
News18, 09 Dec 2020
A video footage shot along the A59 between Skipton and Bolton Abbey in
England's North Yorkshire has captured what is believed to be an
unidentified flying ...

Former Israeli space security chief says extraterrestrials exist ...
NBC News, 09 Dec 2020
A former Israeli space security chief has sent eyebrows shooting heavenward
by saying that earthlings have been in contact with extraterrestrials.

Leaked Reports From Pentagon UFO Task Force Discuss 'Non-Human Technology,'
Mysterious Objects
gvwire.com, 07 Dec 2020
"Recommend you take the brief I just received from our Director of Naval
Intelligence VADM Matt Kohler, on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP),"
Burke told ...

  Video Shows Navy Pilots' Encounter With Possible UFO
  The Daily Beast, 07 Dec 2020 13:24Z

Post Disclosure World @PostDisclosure 06 Dec 2020 04:20Z
Hal Puthoff was part of AATIP. So he's seen a lot of classified
information relating to UAP. His favorite hypothesis is also that these
UFOs are originating from ultraterrestrials. And UAP Task Force gives
credence to the potential UAP originate from the oceans...
[UFO sightings, while 90% junk like dozens of report of Musk's
sat trains, are highly correlated with the coming and going of polar
phytoplankton.  Maybe "just a coincidence" but also supporting the shock
idea there is an undiscovered tech society on Earth living and
farming the oceans].

Details of leaked Pentagon reports mention 'unidentified' UFOs
New York Post, 04 Dec 2020
Details from 2 allegedly classified intelligence reports from the Pentagon
on apparent UFOs have been leaked, including photos of purported
"unidentified ...
[Atlantis is alive and well].

skepticalifornia @skepticaliblog Dec 3
Seems like this should be a much bigger story on the old timeline?·Mar
Pentagon confirms UFOs are real, capable of rapidly navigating water,
air & space with an unknown propulsion system and they appear to be
extremely interested in our nuclear technology
<https://t.co/WYobQBscCN>washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/confir...

  Bridget Phetasy @BridgetPhetasy 04 Dec 2020 22:46Z
  Replying to @skepticaliblog
  I love how people will believe literally any conspiracy theory you tell
  them in 2020 but we hear UFOs are real and it's crickets.

  ½(PEACE)Pd Luke Cook mV¸§ @UFO_LUKE 04 Dec 2020 15:46Z
  After the incredible efforts of @Debriefmedia over the last few
  days, I've decided that @LtTimMcMillan has earned a special place
  on my Xmas tree this year. #ufotwitter
  pic.twitter.com/xpYxjQt2Es

[Venus! Swamp gas!]
Disclose.tv ¨ @disclosetv 04 Dec 2020 0:23Z
NEW - Leaked photo from Pentagon UFO task force shows 'silver cube'
hovering over the Atlantic.
<https://t.co/xpGhTRap55>dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9...

[It's In The Water!]
The Debrief @Debriefmedia 02 Dec 2020 16:21Z
In an exclusive feature for The Debrief, US #military and
#intelligence officials, as well as #Pentagon emails, offer an
unprecedented glimpse behind the scenes of what's currently going on
with The Pentagon's investigation into #UFOs
<https://t.co/PnsEzcxWNU>thedebrief.org/fast-movers-an...
[<https://www.thedebrief.org/fast-movers-and-transmedium-vehicles-the-pentagons-uap-task-force/>].

  The Debrief @Debriefmedia 02 Dec 2020 14:21Z
  Due to a large amount of traffic, The Debrief crashed this morning. We
  are sorry for the inconvenience caused. We are in the process of
  migrating to a more robust server. We're gonna need a bigger boat.