Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: "there is no proof UFO's are interplanetary"

[uploaded 43 times; last 17/09/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Simple reasoning shows there is a "link" between the position and
  movement of solar planets and UFO sightings on earth.
- By eliminating planetary variables that offer direct visual cues --
  like planetary magnitudes, the tilt of Saturn's ring system, etc --
  we can build a model that predicts the "unusual" part of
  UFO sightings rather than simple reactions to unusual bright dots or
  blobs seen in the sky that turn out to be Jupiter, Venus or Saturn.
- An incredible 40%+ of UFO sightings seem to be related to the
  position and movement of planets that should not be directly visible
  to witnesses on earth.
- The variables an AI program selects to build its model suggest
  various possibilities we've seen before -- that the position of
  certain planets around their orbit favor increased UFO activity on
  earth as if they were using Jupiter and even Venus to directly cross
  the solar system close to the sun and use slingshots to course
  correct.


I was hanging around one of those ufo chat rooms, keeping an ear close
to the ground so to speak, when one of the posters/trolls started
berating someone that asked about UFO's in space or LEO.  "There has
never been any evidence UFO's are in space" Our Hero said.  It went on
and on for a few paragraphs.

Hard to believe people can be saying things like this in the 21st century.

It is totally trivial for any high-school kid to show there is *some*
connection between UFO's and "outer space". All that maybe a stumbling
block is the imagination to figure out exactly how to do it convincingly.

My shtick as a data scientist is playing with numbers. So all tasks
to me look like a matter for finding the right data and running some
simple statistics to see whether the pattern found in the numbers is
way way beyond what could be there simply by luck.

You see 5 points on a graph in a rough straight line you say ho hum.
You see 100 points on a graph in a rough straight line you sit up.
(In the data-sets below there are 5000+ data points laying along a line).

So to show there is "something" linking UFO's and "other planets" is a
relatively simple matter of getting a table of planetary parameters
together, a similar table of UFO activity, and showing the planetary
data predicts a good chunk of the UFO activity beyond any reasonable
level of chance.

So this is where my latest project comes in. I've built a little
program that can estimate lots of different planetary parameters as at
a certain day between 2000 and 2100. The folks at NUFORC have a list
of sightings reported by US, Canada and other citizens from roughly
2006 but with historical sightings from newspapers and other sources
going back to the 1930s and some earlier.

So does a collection of planetary parameters "predict" UFO sightings
beyond simple luck?

Well I obviously wouldn't be making this post if the answer was "no".

But to make the case more convincing we will tie one arm behind our backs.

We might suspect that SOME kinds of planetary data MIGHT spark UFO
reports.  E.g. it's commonly believed that the meanderings of Saturn
and its famous rings often bamboozle people into thinking it's not a
nachl object and is therefore the "cause" of many UFO reports.

While the statistical tests show if anything the OPPOSITE is true
because "everyone knows it's Saturn" and this legendary confusion is
well appreciated by everyone, we shall be selective about which
planetary parameters we'll be considering, below.

Things like brightness ("magnitude") or diameter of a planet as viewed
in the sky will not enter the calculations. Planets that pass some
level of brightness or apparent size *might* spark UFO reports, so we
won't include them.

Some other parameters which might vary in the same way as "visual cues"
like diameter or brightness will also be banned.  Anything to do with
Saturn's rings like the angle of tilt or their brightness is off the list,
too.  And while we're about it the "phase" of each planet -- how much is in
sunlight as seen from earth -- is also off the list of variables to use.

That basically leaves things like distance between the sun and each
planet, the angle between the planet in its orbit and its perihelion,
and the angle between the sun and the planet as viewed from the earth
("elongation").

But we will relax some of these restrictions for planets that don't
seem likely to be VISIBLE from earth. E.g. Pluto. With an apparent
diameter less than 1 sec of arc it's not likely its change in
diameter or phase as the Earth (and the relevant planet) moves around
its orbit can likely spark a UFO report.  The same goes for Mercury,
Neptune and Uranus.

So we throw the remaining 1000+ variables into a mix-master with a little
AI and ask it to find a good predictive model that links non-visual
planetary variables with NUFORC day to day sightings data and it spits
out one that surprisingly claims to explain 40% of UFO sightings.

This in itself is something surprising. We have allowed our s/w to
only use variables that do not directly correlate with anything
someone on earth can see with their naked eyes nor, in some cases,
even binocs.

Up to this point I had taken to heart the advice from many experts in
the area that only around 10% of historical UFO reports were "anything"
and that possibly modern UFO reports, thanks to online report forms,
were even less reliable and prone to troll attacks and other hoaxes.

To have a s/w claim that 40% of UFO sightings are actually associated
in some way with planetary positions tends to indicate the number of
real UFO reports may be much higher than suspected up to now.

The plot of the relationship between reports and the prediction model
is at <kym.massbus.org/UFO/model>.

The line that spikes up every few days are the "observations" (the data
from NUFORC) and the wavy line that generally follows the overall
trend of the sightings and has several wavelike components obviously
(now) due to periodic movements of various planets is "the model".

The model I've settled on presenting here is as follows:


 REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
 *****************************************


     VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------
         date         0.00070         0.00003      20.33071       0.00000
           x1        -0.81007         0.17292      -4.68465       0.00000
r-plutoL14
           x2        -0.22059         0.01776     -12.42402       0.00000
rg-neptuneL12
           x3        -0.00161         0.00015     -10.56137       0.00000
v-jupiterL18
           x4        -0.04795         0.01763      -2.71953       0.00664
lonecl-plutoL3
           x5         0.02558         0.00985       2.59862       0.00949
latecl-marsL18
           x6         0.05832         0.01918       3.04093       0.00242
rg-marsL7
           x7         0.00073         0.00013       5.59397       0.00000
v-marsL2
           x8        -0.12575         0.02710      -4.63964       0.00000
rg-venusL11
     CONSTANT        46.01239         1.95639      23.51898       0.00000


 WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =       167.85323
 DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =      1059
 SCALE ESTIMATE          =         0.39812
 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.43364
 THE F-VALUE =       90.092 (WITH   9 AND 1059 DF)   P - VALUE = 0.00000
 THERE ARE  1069 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT.
 AVERAGE WEIGHT          =         0.96393


The model's F-value shows it is way beyond luck that planetary
variables over the past 2-3 wks closely correspond with UFO sightings
made today.  Overall, the variations in the planetary variables listed
shadow about 43% (the R^2) of the day-to-day changes in UFO sightings.
The "scale estimate" says the model will predict the daily UFO
sightings to an average +-.4 cases in any given day.  The "average
weight" says only about 4% of data points presented to the model were
found to be more than 1sd away from the prediction.

The model "makes sense" in many cases. This is something the AI's are
very good at figuring out because they now have years of experience
seeing which variables from my various databases robustly predict
which other variables in the databases. They can quickly tell me
(usually) what the significance of a +ve \beta or -ve \beta is.
E.g. variable x1 (which turns out to be the daily avg distance from
the Sun to Pluto in AU lagged by 14 days) has a beta of -.8. This
means if Pluto gets *closer* to the sun r gets smaller and the
contribution to the UFO sightings count that day goes up 0.8 on
average.  IOW the closer Pluto is to the sun the "easier" it seems for
UFO's to get from Pluto to N America where they can be tallied in
NUFORC statistics.

Similarly, the rg-neptuneL12 (x2) variable is the geocentric distance --
distance between Earth and Neptune in this case -- in AU, lagged by
12 days (i.e. the value from 12 days ago). Again \beta is negative (-.22).
For each AU closer to Earth Neptune gets it seems it it slightly easier for
UFO's to turn up to be counted in NUFORC data. Suggesting a small number are
possibly travelling from Pluto to Earth.

The lonecl and v variables are angles the planets make with reference
points in their orbit. Angles 0-180 degrees are the region of an orbit
where the planet is above the ecliptic (plane of the Earth's
orbit). Angles -180 to 0 (or sometimes written 180-360 degrees) are
where a planet is moving below the ecliptic.  Generally the motion
above or below the ecliptic is only about 1 or 2 visual diameters of the
moon, happening over months or years. It's not generally something you can see.

But it seems certain parts of the orbits of some planets seem to be
associated with making it harder/easier for UFO's to show up in
sighting statistics.

In some cases the AI's have shown up a pattern of dependence on
location in a planet's orbit that suggest some planets are used to
"swing by" to allow UFO's to travel from the outer solar system
directly to Earth via a "close shave" trip around the sun.  It seems
their space drive is not so powerful they cain save a dollar allowing
theirsels to free-fall toward the Sun for 1/2 the trip or use Venus
to swing back onto course toward the Earth.

This is not to say that Earth is particularly the center of the UFO
universe. But it (so far as I know) is the only location we have
relatively good data on which days they are (possibly) turning up.
So that kinda biases the measurements and conclusions.

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