Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: unwanted pregnancy?

[uploaded 27 times; last 25/10/2024]

What looked like a typical bit of Pentagon mis-direction has been
widely publicized across the usual and fringe media -- in "a secret
report" at least one woman claims to have an unwanted pregnancy as a
result of a UFO or alien encounter.

Like many people (who consider themselves "serious minded" :) I
dismissed the "I had an alien baby!" story. Most of the release of
material from the relevant FOI seemed to be the usual noisy junk
needing some serious analysis to extract anything useful from.

But this is where "AI" meets the kind of criteria written up by
Harvard's Avi Loeb. "AI" offers science or mil int the prospect of
some kind of "unbiased" or at least "uncluttered" analysis of any
topic, no matter how far fetched.

While I've had some experience using AI for serious analysis of
complex topics and find it's not quite as "unbiased" as many might
hope, we can offer here an example of "unprejudiced" analysis of the
sensational topic of possible "alien" babies. ;)

If it is the case that "UFO's" have something to do with "unwanted
pregnancies" can we find any evidence for that in hard
publicly-available datasets?

The answer is always yes. :)

Here we look at state abortion rates per 1000 women as an indicator
or proxy for unwanted pregnancies. And we just do some simple
regressions against different types of UFO data to see if there is any
kind of statistically significant hit.

And the s/w immed picks up some hits. Depending on how much the data
is "tortured" by advanced stats there is almost any level of support
for *some* kind of link.

At this point we can't claim there is evidence for a "causal" link,
but at least we all have a mental model of how a UFO encounter *might*
result in an unwanted pregnancy.

But here are the stats.

The UFO data I will present here are rates of UFO sightings across US
states from the NUFORC dataset. I thank again the NUFORC for proving
these numbers online without let or hindrance or requests for monetary
assistance.

The NUFORC created a web report form in 2006 possibly related to some
event in 2004. The character of the UFO reports changed radically with
the advent of the form, so I will split the state-by-state data into 2
sets -- one pre 2006 and the other post 2006 (up to the end of 2021 in
the present dataset).

Each finds there is a strong statistical link. The more UFO's each
state sees per km2 the more abortions per 1000 women each state
records (the abortion rates come from 2022, but we assume at this
point they are indicative of historical rates).

Both the pre- and post-2006 data gets a strong hit. By "strong" I
mean my usual standard 2 tests -- a T-test on the relevant regression
\beta, and a rank test on the ordering of the data by the dependent
("Y") and independent ("X") values of the data.  If both tests pass at
less than 10% "could be just luck" then we have a "3 9s" to "4 9s"
likelihood there is some real link.

The pre-2006 data looks like:

MODEL:
y = 1.75914*x + 7.53293
beta in 1.75914 +- 0.566151  90% CI
alpha in 7.53293 +- 1.23503
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999998
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.556110
	Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_related
r2 = 0.361354

State		UFO sightings/mn km2  Abortion	  Model
				      rate/1000w
Alaska                 0.0244491         8.6     7.57594
West.Virginia          0.0710519         1.3     7.65792*
Wyoming                0.0710519         1.3     7.65792*
New.York                0.131067         7.9      7.7635
Missouri                0.136541         8.3     7.77313
Rhode.Island            0.150194         3.1     7.79715*
Idaho                   0.231004         3.9      7.9393
Montana                 0.234582         5.5      7.9456
Tennessee               0.245581         4.4     7.96494
Nebraska                0.247947        16.4     7.96911**
Kansas                  0.295641        12.2     8.05301
New.Jersey              0.301669        11.7     8.06361
Iowa                    0.329347         6.3      8.1123
Colorado                0.415429        10.9     8.26373
North.Dakota            0.441903         6.2      8.3103
Michigan                 0.45743        10.1     8.33762
Arkansas                0.479191         5.5      8.3759
Ohio                    0.490571        11.9     8.39592
South.Dakota            0.494522         9.4     8.40287
Minnesota               0.566035         4.3     8.52867*
Washington              0.607172         5.9     8.60103
Wisconsin               0.607172         5.9     8.60103
Louisiana               0.618185        10.6     8.62041
Alabama                 0.677642         6.4       8.725
Arizona                 0.718026         9.2     8.79604
Mississippi             0.747786           4     8.84839*
Maine                   0.752897         8.8     8.85738
Texas                   0.763022        11.4      8.8752
South.Carolina          0.778738         9.2     8.90284
Georgia                 0.864147        16.9     9.05309*
Virginia                0.892359         4.4     9.10272*
Massachusetts           0.898225        14.2     9.11304*
Utah                     1.01999        10.2     9.32724
Hawaii                   1.02434          12     9.33489
Kentucky                 1.06059         3.8     9.39866*
New.Mexico               1.09047        14.6     9.45122*
Pennsylvania             1.21787         5.3     9.67534*
Indiana                  1.28285         5.9     9.78965
Illinois                 1.34668        16.6     9.90193*
Vermont                  1.43503        12.1     10.0574
California                1.7572        16.4     10.6241*
Florida                  1.82027        18.6      10.735*
Oklahoma                 1.91142        13.1     10.8954
North.Carolina           1.96389         9.4     10.9877
Nevada                   2.35382         9.2     11.6736
Delaware                 3.25733        10.5      13.263
Maryland                 5.01171        13.5     16.3492
New.Hampshire            6.55215          28     19.0591**
Connecticut               7.1742        17.7     20.1534
Oregon                   8.24588        16.7     22.0386*


The 2 stats tests say there is a strong link. We cant say UFO's
*cause* some unwanted pregnancies but the R2 is the important value
here. It says the state-by-state difference in UFO rates/km2 predict
about 36% of the state by state variation in abortion rates.

And the R2 is important. Because that's almost exactly the same
statistic from the post-2006 dataset. Despite the huge changes in UFO
observing methodology, the "correlation" has remained the same,
presumably over the past ~100y.

Here's the data for the post 2006 stuff:

MODEL:
y = 0.142532*x + 7.39118
beta in 0.142532 +- 0.0440032  90% CI
alpha in 7.39118 +- 1.23117
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999999
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.561585
	Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_related
r2 = 0.380761

State             UFO sightings/mn km2  Abortion   Model
                                       rate/1000w
Alaska                  0.229938         8.6     7.42396
New.York                0.901088         7.9     7.51962
West.Virginia           0.947358         1.3     7.52621*
Wyoming                 0.947358         1.3     7.52621*
Rhode.Island             1.20155         3.1     7.56244*
Missouri                 1.66475         8.3     7.62847
Montana                   2.0763         5.5     7.68713
New.Jersey               3.28025        11.7     7.85873
Kansas                   3.34122        12.2     7.86742*
Nebraska                 3.50619        16.4     7.89093**
Minnesota                3.62741         4.3     7.90821
Idaho                    4.23662         3.9     7.99504
Tennessee                4.49322         4.4     8.03161
North.Dakota             4.98799         6.2     8.10214
South.Dakota             4.99985         9.4     8.10383
Louisiana                5.02741        10.6     8.10775
Arkansas                 5.08959         5.5     8.11662
Iowa                      5.3313         6.3     8.15107
Michigan                 6.03541        10.1     8.25143
Alabama                  6.29765         6.4      8.2888
Colorado                  7.7114        10.9     8.49031
Maine                     8.2164         8.8     8.56229
Ohio                     8.53986        11.9     8.60839
Massachusetts            8.83055        14.2     8.64982*
Virginia                 8.93953         4.4     8.66536*
Washington               9.15473         5.9     8.69603
Wisconsin                9.15473         5.9     8.69603
Mississippi              9.54396           4     8.75151*
Arizona                  9.96769         9.2      8.8119
Kentucky                 9.97525         3.8     8.81298*
Georgia                  11.6367        16.9     9.04979*
South.Carolina           13.3576         9.2     9.29508
Utah                      15.661        10.2     9.62339
Hawaii                   16.0008          12     9.67182
Illinois                 16.6736        16.6     9.76771*
Indiana                  16.8043         5.9     9.78634
Texas                    17.5093        11.4     9.88683
New.Mexico               17.7632        14.6     9.92302*
Pennsylvania             19.7149         5.3     10.2012*
Vermont                  21.8504        12.1     10.5056
California               22.5087        16.4     10.5994*
North.Carolina           23.6012         9.4     10.7551
Oklahoma                 27.4138        13.1     11.2985
Nevada                   31.1364         9.2     11.8291
Florida                  31.8959        18.6     11.9374*
Delaware                 42.6555        10.5      13.471
Maryland                 63.2865        13.5     16.4116
New.Hampshire            78.8914          28     18.6358**
Connecticut              93.3343        17.7     20.6944
Oregon                   102.949        16.7     22.0648*

So, again, a strong statistical link and the proportion of the
"unwanted pregnancies" explained is around the same value.

We are forced to conclude there is "some link" between UFO sightings
densities and unwanted pregnancies, although what that link is exactly
remains unknown at this point.

The Surgeon General's Report of the 1960s that linked cancer and
tobacco smoking was the first "scientific" report to outline a
methodology to establish a causal link.  That publication argued that
3 types of data analysis were required to show that kind of link.  (a)
predicting forward in time -- if the "stimulus" changes at time T then
the "response" must change in the future (in a statistically strong
way).  (b) predicting backward in time -- if the "response" changed at
time T then the "stimulus" must generally have changed at some prior
time (").  (c) predicting across categories -- if the data is split
into boxes related to geography or some other property of each
individual datapoint, it must be found across the boxes there is a
strong link between the stimulus and response.

We have shown here (c) in a couple different ways.

I can point out at this time the other kinds of data is also visible.

This is what happens when you try to do unprejudiced analysis.  You
get stoopid results you don't like. In this case not the least of
which are the YUGE list of biological and genetic implications.

As a tribal wise woman once told me -- Science (that she only
vaguely understood in the context of the conversation we were having
at the time ;) sounded like a hard way to live.  It was a way
of life where you had to surrender to the truth of what you found
rather than running away from things you don't like, which is allays
the easy way to go. She said it better. But the language is difficult.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

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