Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and minor quakes

[uploaded 41 times; last 17/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

- We look at "small quakes" and their connection with UFO
  activity. These have been MIA until now due to an emphasis in most
  databases of  tracking  the big and damaging events.  But
  we've found in the past the links between major quakes and UFO's
  seem less a result of or an attractant and more like a major
  repellant and/or possible suppressant depending if they are where
  UFO's are suspected of "hanging out" while visiting Planet Dirt, or
  whether they happen in regions UFO's are interested in monitoring
  for whatever reason.
- Small quakes maintained in a database at Caltech seem to be a
  missing part of the puzzle. They are very closely predicted by both
  California UFO activity and US48 sightings as well.
- While there seems to be no evidence (yet) for UFO's being attracted
  to volcanoes or earthquakes large or small, the link with small
  quakes suggests some "digging" activity may be happening somewhere. 
  Possibly many places.
- Other data still being processed lends further support to a mental
  model of "digging". The GRACE sat data finds almost every US state
  shows an anomalous (if small) missing mass following increases in
  UFO activity and a slight "return to normal" when UFO activity
  declines again. We've seen "contrails" coming from some UFO's in pix
  released by certain govts. Maybe its not a bio-weapon under test or
  disinfectant being released -- they are just getting rid of dirt.
  

We've seen before there are strong links between UFO's and major
earthquakes. The interpretation I posted some time back before I was
fully aware of the folklore was that major quakes in some regions
seemed to be a UFO stimulant; while the same kind of events in other
regions seemed to suppress UFO activity.

But the folklore has a slightly different spin. Some people believe
that quakes can "attract" UFOs for some reason.  In the past I've had
trouble reproducing or supporting this link. Similar to the situation
my s/w is having with volcanoes -- where some UFO researchers posit
unusual objects are "often seen" around volcanoes (e.g. in S America)
-- but the stats so far coming out of one or other AI's seems to
suggest other things are responsible for the apparent
association. E.g. volcanoes are typically far from the coast and in
some countries there is a big different between coastal and
non-coastal areas in terms of UFO activity. I.e. seeing UFO's around a
volcano is largely a coincidence. They are apparently there for some
other reason.

But the problem now seems to be partly clarified with the realization
extant earthquake data is implicitly biased and it's the bias that has
led to the non-results to date. It turns out scientists and various
organisations place greater import on tracking "major quakes" than
small ones. Large quakes are not only significant in terms of threats
-- which is what many organisations that track them tend to be working
on -- but the number of small quakes is extremely large, making it
difficult to keep track of them all and more costly to build and
maintain instruments good enough and numerous enough to register them
in the first place.

One of the programs that's running on my system has now found a
database that includes a lot of details on daily tremors even down to
-ve magnitudes. The database query form also seems to include check
boxes to allow searches for tremors that have been machine classified
as events other than quakes -- e.g. mining activity, nuclear blasts,
etc. So it all looks promising to twiddle with in the near future.

But today we'll use the data just around California to check again
whether and how *small* quakes are connected with local and regional
UFO activity. The first tranche of events the s/w has uploaded this
morning are small quakes between mag -1 and mag 1 within ~100 km of
the San Francisco area. It turns out just between 2020 and 2023 there
have been almost 80,000 of them.  Now *that's* the kind of data I've
been wanting to see. :)

And the programs immediately find that UFO activity is implicated in
the *creation* of some large chunk of these events.  When UFO activity
in California goes up and down then in the month following that small
quake activity goes up and down in parallel. More unusually, the UFO
activity of the whole 48 goes up and down in parallel a month later.

So we can see how this links in with another hot topic I've started
looking at -- missing mass measured by gravity sats that appears to
follow the activity of UFOs up and down. AKA possible tunnelling or
base-building activity.

But back to the small quake data. For the sample uploaded so far and
divided up into consecutive months we find the numbers are:

Date	Number of small quakes around SF
(yyyy.mm)
2020.04 1408
2020.12 1306
2020.21 1400
2020.29 3028
2020.38 1990
2020.46 1815
2020.54 1737
2020.62 1607
2020.71 1594
2020.79 1393
2020.88 978
2020.96 991
2021.04 707
2021.12 887
2021.21 753
2021.29 1031
2021.38 876
2021.46 1369
2021.54 1063
2021.62 1031
2021.71 1122
2021.79 645
2021.88 809
2021.96 683
2022.04 901
2022.12 770
2022.21 727
2022.29 712
2022.38 787
2022.46 785
2022.54 782
2022.62 795
2022.71 665
2022.79 613
2022.88 475
2022.96 402

Which nicely shows some bumps up and down. And we might ask -- what is
making small quakes do that?

Here is most of the answer.

Suspect	lag	filter	transf	R2
	(m)
ufo	1	1	none	0.75534197
ufo	1	1	x	0.70588523
ufo-CA	1	1	none	0.67659065
ufo-CA	1	1	y	0.65581779
ufo	1	3	y	0.55015227
ufo	0	3	none	0.53377570
ufo	2	1	none	0.53165434
ufo	1	3	none	0.52837053
ufo-CA	1	1	x	0.52189165
ufo	2	1	x	0.47825767

The 2 suspects I've looked at are the NUFORC sighting counts for the
whole US and just those for California. To match the UFO activity
against the quake numbers the s/w is allowed to transform things in
several simple ways. It can also ignore "outliers" if that makes the
match better. And it can also lag the UFO data by 0 upto 3 months if
that also improves the match. The value of the match is given by the
relevant regression R2 ("explanation power"). The R2 shows what
proportion of the variation in the dependent variate (i.e. the quake
numbers) is explained by the variation in the independent variate
(i.e. the UFO activity counts).

I think we are not surprised to see the stats shows that small quakes
"depend on" UFO activity in some way. Both US48 and California UFO
activity predict small quakes around San Francisco in the next
month. But the shocking thing is the PROPORTION that is explained. The
top line in the table says the best stats model found says almost 76%
of small quakes around SF have something to do with US48 activity the
month before. I.e. only about 1 in 4 of them are "caused" by anything
else -- moving faults or fracking, etc. The picture is the same for
Cal-specific UFO sightings.  The 3rd line down shows Cal UFO's explain
2/3 of SF regional tremors 1 month later.

With these kinds of results it's pretty sure when we get around to
looking at data for other regions around the US (I'm presuming the
same database keeps track of the 1000s of other tremors at least in
some other parts of the US mainland) they will replicate what we have
found here. Small quakes are most likely to be intimately connected
with prior UFO activity both locally and elsewhere.

As I mentioned this post is linked with a larger effort I've dubbed
"Digging In". Some of the preliminary output from that work is
presently sitting at <kym.massbus.org/UFO/DiggingIn>.  It seems to
show that UFO activity is also intimately connected with widespread
variations in mass anomalies detected by the GRACE gravity sats
between 2002 to at least 2016.  Apparently in almost every state when
UFO activity ramps up locally the gravity sats detect a little later a
decline in mass anomaly in that state. It's as if people see UFO's,
they land nearby, and start digging. Where the material goes they
hypothetically dig out of (wherever) is anyone's guess. Maybe the few
states where the relationship runs -ve, perhaps. Maybe those other
states are the dumping grounds for the excavated material.

Anyway, that study is proceeding.

--
The US government portrays itself as the world's preeminent
superpower, so to acknowledge that there are things in their
airspace, whatever they are, that are faster and more manoeuvrable
and run rings around fast jets doesn't play very well.
So there's the embarrassment factor, and maybe a little bit of
fear that either an adversary has made a quantum leap in
development, which has left the US in a poor second place, or, as
some believe, this really is extra terrestrial, in which case we're
not at the top of the food chain anymore.
-- Nick Pope, 02 May 2023

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