Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: tracking ufos with comets

[uploaded 31 times; last 09/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We looked before at how comparing tornado and storm data with UFO
  sightings from state to state can establish major highways of object
  travel on Earth. We've seen before that a line of storms across the
  US on a given day generally results in a piling up of sightings on
  one side of the line and a thinning out on the other side.  This is
  consistent with UFO's on that day in that region tending to move from
  one side of the line to the other. By surveying the whole dataset we
  can establish long-term "UFO highways" across the US, the Ohio
  Valley being the obvious best example. :)
- It seems comets may form a similar (however slight) barrier to UFO
  travel across the solar system. In months where there are larger
  numbers of comets approaching perihelion inside the orbit of
  Jupiter -- and oftentimes inside the orbit of Mercury -- there are
  generally lower numbers of UFO reports (after seasonal adjustments).
  In months with fewer inner-system comets there are larger numbers of
  sightings.
- Using data for comets coming no closer than 5-10 AU from the sun
  shows the more comets in that region the more UFO sightings.
  Apparently comets restricted to the region beyond Jupiter result in
  a "piling up" effect of UFO's in the inner system, incl Earth.  This
  effect is, however, statistically weak compared with the -ve corr of
  comets in the inner system.


In a prev post we looked at a method that suggests how UFO's track
across the US using storm data. IOW a kind of passive radar.  On days
where storms form along lines of latitude or longitude we noticed that
UFO sightings "pile up" on one side of the storm line and thin out on
the other side. Suggesting the objects were tending to move in a
certain direction on that day.  By compiling tables of all storm lines
over time we re-confirmed an old UFO idea -- the Ohio Valley sees a
large number of sightings because it apparently acts like a UFO
highway at least for some times of the year.

I'm presently using data from NASA's "Horizons" system to find
patterns linking the movements of objects in the solar system with UFO
activity over N America. A future post will cover the results for
planets and the larger asteroids (suggesting some types may have an
"affinity" with certain planets or asteroids), but here we'll look
at what comets suggest about the movements of UFO's within parts of
the solar system.

The initial data was just a list of comets registered at the Horizons
database arriving at perihelion since 2006 and having a perihelion
distance of less than 5 AU -- i.e. inside the orbit of Jupiter.

The data was (no surprise) very noisy. But removing seasonality from
the UFO sightings (taken from the NUFORC database for sightings
reported after the organization started using a web report form) and
comparing with the month-by-month number of comets approaching
perihelion inside the orbit of Jupiter -- usually much closer to the
sun than 5AU -- showed an interesting relationship reminiscent of US
tornadoes on UFO activity:

#comets        Av #UFO sightings  Model
               in same month
1              483.543            469.101
2              471.284            467.079
3              530.945            465.057*(model 1sd below av seen)
4              457.785            463.035
5              492.314            461.013
6              482.99             458.991
7              441.062            456.969
8              475.006            454.947
9              508.035            452.925
10             505.757            450.903
11             525.596            448.881*(-1)
12             487.364            446.859
13             341.403            444.837*(+1)
14             333.803            442.815*(+1)
16             378.803            438.77*(+1)
17             490.403            436.748
18             493.42             434.726*(-1)
19             385.937            432.704
20             400.545            430.682
21             437.77             428.66
22             325.87             426.638*(+1)
23             402.986            424.616
28             405.67             414.506
30             366.608            410.462
33             375.545            404.396
83             369.17             303.295*(-1)

MODEL:
y = -2.02202*x + 471.123

We've divided the data into months between 2006 and 2022. And we've
binned the data by number of comets in the month to get the above
table.  So the first line shows that months 2006-2022 where there was
1 comet saw an avg number of UFO sightings (de-seasonalised) in the
month of 469.1 reports. The last line shows for months with 33 comets
in the inner solar system had an avg 375.5 UFO reports.

We therefore find a pattern that months with larger numbers of comets
approaching perihelion within 5 AU of the sun see a reducing number of
UFO sightings.  It's as if comets are "crowding out" UFO activity
across N Am.

The calculation of whether or not this represents a statistically
significant pattern or just one that has come up by luck is tricky
given the time-series nature of the various data. It turns out there
is significant auto-correlation in comet and UFO data meaning the
pattern above could have just been created by "inertia" in one or
other or both datasets.

But the relevant time-series program finds with auto-correlation
cancelled out using various techniques it has on hand still shows a
highly significant relationship according to 2 independent statistical
tests at better than 95% confidence each.

T-test: P(beta<0) = 0.996380
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = -0.608889
        critical value = 0.465 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.26411371

This suggests that the appearance of comets within the orbit of
Jupiter has an effect of UFO sightings. For each comet approaching
perihelion in a month UFO sightings (seasonally adjusted) reduce by
around 2 per month.

Just as we were able to use lines of storms across the US as a "fence"
to decide where UFO's may be moving from day to day in certain times
of the year, we might be able to probe the movement of UFO's between
outer planets and Earth by comparing comets at different distances
from the sun and UFO activity across N Am.

The next group of data is for comets that are approaching perihelion
2006-2022 but with a minimum distance between 5 and 10 AU. I.e.  (and
somewhat arbitrarily at this point) between Jupiter and Saturn.

The table for that dataset looks like:


Bin size   Av #UFOs     Model
(#comets)  same month
 1          392.29      529.629
 2          420.729     526.007
 3          376.66      522.385
 4          415.73      518.763
 5          382.584     515.141
 6          469.056     511.52
 7          451.789     507.898
 8          413.284     504.276
 9          503.148     500.654
10          503.053     497.032
11          422.324     493.41
12          615.185     489.788
13          567.414     486.167
14          510.453     482.545
15          643.072     478.923
16          567.953     475.301
17          756.203     471.679*
18          804.831     468.057*
19          584.512     464.435
20          836.295     460.814**(model 2sd under observed av)
21          483.147     457.192
22          611.967     453.57
23          467.17      449.948
24          447.803     446.326
27          375.203     435.46
28          -11.83      431.839**(+2sd)
29          416.67      428.217
31          314.42      420.973
33          191.267     413.729*
34          319.403     410.107

MODEL:
y = 0.78877*x + 79.083

Interestingly we see a "piling up" effect. The more comets in the
other system *ostensibly* the more UFO reports in the same month.

While the table above shows a stat sig +ve relationship between
number of comets in a month approaching perihelion between the orbits
of Jup and Sat, in the context of a time series from month to month
the corrections of serial correlation in UFO sightings and comets
approaching perihelion removes the statistical significance. The
program says there is nothing more to the +ve correlation, in this 2nd
table, than the operation of inertia in one or other dataset.

So we seem to have at least tentatively established that comets seem
to form a barrier or "fence" to UFO travel. When more comets are
buzzing around the inner solar system there seems to be stat sig lower
UFO activity on Earth (i.e. assuming UFO sightings in N Am is at least
a proxy of activity on the planet overall). But comets that don't
enter the inner solar system either have no effect or at most may
prevent UFO's travelling somewhere beyond Jupiter and not subsequently
being seen on Earth.

IOW we seem to have some evidence that UFO's tend to travel inside the
inner side. At times when more comets buzz the inner system there are
less sightings on Earth. At times when more comets buzz the region
between Jupiter and Saturn UFO sightings on Earth (weakly) "pile up".

While a preliminary survey finds there are links between certain
planets and larger asteroids and UFO activity on Earth, astronomers
keep track of 1000s of objects far out in the solar system, that
extends out according to some opinions to 1.5 ly.

Not only which objects seem to be linked with UFO activity is of
interest, but what properties those objects have in common and perhaps
whether the change in corr with distance from the sun shows UFO's are
more or less limited to the region close to the sun (e.g. sailing on
the solar wind) or are comfortable operating in deeper space.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

[Stigma:]
UFO encounter with US Navy warship was RIPPED OUT of ship's logbook after
mass sighting by 200 sailors, says witness
The Sun, 09 Jul 2022 10:25Z
US NAVY sailors were allegedly told to rip pages out of a warship's record
book detailing an encounter with a 40ft ball of ...

Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher proposes a secure mechanism for reporting UFO
activity
Washington Times, 08 Jul 2022 14:29Z
Rep. Mike Gallagher wants to set up a special reporting mechanism for
soldiers, contractors and others who want to report ...
[At present reporting UFO's even to the Pentagon's UFO unit could
result in jail for contravening NDA's that are part of employment or
service contracts.  The proposed laws would also ban retribution from
bosses or commanders, as the case may be].

My D-Day veteran grandfather was killed while chasing a UFO in his fighter
plane - it was covered up & we want answers
The Sun, 07 Jul 2022 10:08Z
THOMAS Mantell was a 25-year-old war hero when he was killed in a plane
crash after being scrambled to chase down a UFO - and almost 75 years on his
family are still desperate for answers.

The Search for UFOs May Reveal Something More Valuable
Newsweek/Opinion, 06 Jul 2022 11:17Z
America's "space agency" picking up the UFO ball was bound to raise eyebrows
and concerns for NASA's reputation. But if it's ...

Alien life search: UK tech millionaire buys huge ex-nuclear warning system
to 'hunt UFOs'
Daily Express, 06 Jul 2022 12:17Z
A BRITISH millionaire has purchased a former nuclear warning system from the
Cold War era in Norwich to hunt for UFOs.

Stunned by UFOs, `exasperated' fighter pilots get little help from Pentagon
The Hill, 05 Jul 2022 12:58Z
Despite the frequency of the encounters and the severity of the hazard,
it took the Navy five years to adopt a formal UFO ...