Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and the pandemic

[uploaded 68 times; last 16/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- There are suspicious connections between patterns of UFO activity
  and (at least for the US) patterns of virus activity.
- Overall it seems an up-tick in UFO activity in a state during
  2006-2019 is related to a similar up-tick in virus activity over the
  last 12m.
- Preliminary data shows certain UFO types are associated with
  statistically significant "helping" -- i.e. virus cases go down
  with increases in UFO activity. But other types of UFOs seem to be
  associated with the other thing. Some triangles are associated with
  virus declines; but black triangles are not one of them.


Just a year ago I was doing a project on modeling the pandemic.  One
component of the work involved writing a simple but fairly detailed
country-level simulation to follow what might happen in the next
12m. Feed in the then-not-totally-known parameters of the virus and
some initial numbers on the growing case numbers and death toll, and
the model chugged away and figured out what kind of population and
mixing was involved and produced a plot or 2.

You could even add in complicated details like different mixing
patterns for different age groups and genders, and even posit a simple
vaccine model. At that point it was assumed even ONE vaccine in the
next 12m was a long shot, so I remember one of the runs I "handed in"
involved a vaccine that was only 30% effective but I said something on
the cover notes "don't take this one seriously; it's not likely to be
relevant for years".

One of the interesting things the model showed up with the covid
params then know was a tendency for the population to oscillate.  With
some presumed lockdowns when things got real serious and the tendency
of people to get tired of wearing face masks and washing hands it
seemed around every 100 days the model was pointing at a resurgence in
the virus. And this was without any modeling of possible new virus strains.

It was interesting to predict "every 100 days".  When I later saw
case number plots from Johns Hopkins data show many countries were
having peaks at 100, 200 and 300 days.  A bit of slop, to be sure, but
amazing the model seemed to have gotten this detail right.
  <http://kym.sdf-eu.org/CHINA/modelLiaoningact.gif>
  <http://kym.sdf-eu.org/CHINA/modelBeijingact.gif>
  <http://kym.sdf-eu.org/WORLD/modelbelarusact.gif>
  <http://kym.sdf-eu.org/AUSTRALIA/modelQueenslandact.gif>

Flash forward a year and I'm more interested in working on UFO modelling.
I wont go into why. Use your maginations! :)

As part of the UFO modeling, esp in connection with the correlations
with planetary parameters, in my in basket one day was an AI's idea of
an interesting plot. It showed a certain planetary parameters had
roughly a 100 day period.  Don't worry about exactly which parameter --
it's a function of some angle of something. But it has a cycle roughly
every 100 days.

So I got to thinking. And added a couple things to the TODO list for
the AI's to look at.

And, unfortunately, something cropped up. A week or 2 later now even
more stuff has cropped up in the inbox.

There seems to be a connection between UFO activity and the pandemic.

The news is not all bad. It looks like SOME parts of the UFO data are
trying to "help". But some part are doing that other thing.

We'll go into some details later, after I see whether they survive
some of the vetting that goes on with models that get spit out by
parts of the s/w almost every day.

So first we'll look at the overall pattern that's likely to be similar
everywhere.

I take -- as usual -- the NUFORC data as a proxy for US and global UFO
activity.

Breaking sightings over the past ~10y down state-by-state we get:


State	Number of sightings
	(NUFORC -- 2006-2020)
AB	423
AK	425
AL	911
AR	689
AZ	2963
BC	506
CA	9817
CO	1988
CT	1326
DC	80
DE	278
FL	5411
GA	1812
HI	463
IA	784
ID	880
IL	2588
IN	1525
KS	736
KY	1097
LA	728
MA	1755
MB	150
MD	1233
ME	778
MI	2330
MN	1396
MO	1745
MS	502
MT	657
NB	154
NC	2502
ND	167
NE	440
NF	27
NH	756
NJ	1824
NM	1068
NS	137
NT	10
NV	1030
NY	3552
OH	2790
OK	931
ON	1478
OR	2157
PA	3251
PE	14
PR	2
QB	1
QC	202
RI	426
SA	5
SC	1662
SD	259
SK	132
TN	1463
TX	3618
UT	994
VA	1762
VT	430
WA	3991
WI	1598
WV	579
WY	247
YT	18

And then there's the JHU data for the US. This copy is probably quite
old. The AI's have not been scrounging the master files off github as
regularly as they used to. But for US states we have:


State	#cases	#deaths
AL	471311	8513
AK	55259	279
AZ	779093	14011
AR	306064	5061
CA	3473993	51994
CO	404256	5722
CT	259372	7214
DE	79832	1202
DC	37877	947
FL	1771359	27599
GA	937402	15090
HI	26611	415
ID	165209	1767
IL	1144281	21676
IN	637987	11752
IA	324306	5108
KS	589990	9136
KY	376253	4020
LA	409861	9076
ME	41065	634
MD	362084	7329
MA	540827	14921
MI	620685	15854
MN	467217	6357
MS	280778	6266
MO	481183	7444
MT	95717	1312
NE	193421	1968
NV	283391	4496
NH	68061	1098
NJ	717835	21964
NM	177214	3386
NY	1470301	44664
NC	791521	9926
ND	98106	1453
OH	918079	11652
OK	401780	3761
OR	146741	2020
PA	869222	22353
RI	117891	2212
SC	462981	7611
SD	109132	1804
TN	742213	10463
TX	2486505	39182
UT	353700	1733
VT	12766	182
VA	650366	8892
WA	320146	4449
WV	124190	2119
WI	600016	6611
WY	52618	624
Diamond.Princess	49	1
Grand.Princess	116	3
Guam	7636	129
Puerto.Rico	95355	1872
Virgin.Islands	2563	25


Now you know what's coming up. We are going to see if these 2 sets of
numbers are more similar than they would be just by random luck.

Here's a binning regression. It takes the 2 sets of numbers and
assigns them to bins based on similarity. States that are "similar"
according to the s/w are put in the same bin and the average for UFO
sightings and virus cases is computed for the bin.  It's the bin
averages that get passed on to the regression to see whether
e.g. virus numbers are predicted by sightings numbers.


MODEL OUTPUT:
Annual UFO sightings 2006-2019 in each state used to predict virus cases
in that state 2020-2021.
y = 349.943*x + -36557.9
beta in 349.943 +- 28.3296   95% CI
alpha in -36557.9 +- 69974.8
r2 = 0.95343281
P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
calculated Spearman corr = 0.902741
Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected


So the statistics says the 2 sets of data are far too similar to be
due to just chance. Not only does the T-test say \beta in the model is
99% likely to be positive, the Spearman rank test says the ordering of
states by UFO activity is very very similar to the ordering of states
by virus activity (#cases).

Together these things are saying there something like only 1 chance in
10000 this could come about without some connection between UFO
activity and virus activity.

Wouldn't it be odd if we were already involved in some conflict and
no-one knew about it.

As I said, from what I can see in other things fresher out of the
pipeline maybe only a minority of UFO types is involved in this
particular pattern. We'll go into the ins and outs a bit later.

Until then, if you see any black triangles please put on a good mask
and wash your hands afterwards.


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