Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: ufos and mercury -- nav model tweak

[uploaded 35 times; last 31/10/2024]

Results are evolving nicely at Quant Central with the various AI
programs working with the simple "nav model" in many directions.

The first nav model started out assuming events on earth (and some
other moons and planets) are related to objects hopping between
selected asteroids/comets around the solar system. By adjusting 4 main
parameters and the list of "hang out" asteroids the programs can make
trips between said asteroids and the earth line up almost exactly with
a bevy of datasets only some of which are reports of UFO sightings.

There are now 128 different "activities" that seem to be easily
explained by the model. The variety is getting to be quite large and
it wont be long before we end up in the invidious situation that
"almost everything" might be explainable to some degree by
hypothetical things jumping from asteroid to asteroid at approx solar
escape speeds or faster. (This normally indicates that the relevant
objects can not be natural -- only rocks that travel slower than solar
escape speeds can be resident in the solar system for any sig length
of time; faster objects either must have recently come from outside or
are unusual -- maybe engineered -- objects from inside the solar system).

The list of "activities" today is thus:

ABC ABDUCTION ACCIDENTS BIGFOOT BIRDDEATHS BLUEBOOK BTC CATTLEDEATHS
CHAMP CO2-L30d CO2 CO2D COVID-CASES-L14d COVID-CASES COVID-DEATHS-L14d
COVID-DEATHS-L30d COVID-DEATHS CRASHES CROP-CIRCLES CRYPTIDS
FBIUNIDLIVING FISHDEATHS FOO-FIGHTERS GHOST-SHIPS-L14d
GHOST-SHIPS-L30d GHOST-SHIPS GHOST-SHIPS1900-L30d GHOST-SHIPS1900
GHOSTS UFO-GIANT HAVANASYNDROME HESSDALEN HUMANOIDS-blond
HUMANOIDS-hairy HUMANOIDS-short HUMANOIDS HUMANOIDS1990-blond
HUMANOIDS1990-hairy HUMANOIDS1990-reptilian HUMANOIDS1990-short
HUMANOIDS1990 JELLYFISH MARSQUAKES-deimos MARSQUAKES-mars
MARSQUAKES-mercury MARSQUAKES-phobos MARSQUAKES METEORS-ams METEORS
MISSING-SHIPS-L30d MISSING-SHIPS MISSING13-15 MISSING65 MISSINGAUS
MISSINGDOE MISSINGFEMS MISSINGKIDS MISSINGMALES MISSINGTIME N2O-L30d
N2O N2OD NESSIE NICAP PENGUIN POLTERGEIST POWEROUTAGES RANDOM
RUSSIAOILREV-L90d RUSSIAOILREV SAUDIOILREV SHADOWS SHC SO SUNSPOTS
TLP+1d TLP-moon TLP UFO-AZ UFO-BLACK UFO-BLUE UFO-BRIGHTLIGHT UFO-CA
UFO-CHASE UFO-CHEVRON UFO-CIGAR UFO-CYLINDER UFO-DARK UFO-DAWN
UFO-DISK UFO-DUSK UFO-FAINT UFO-FIREBALL UFO-FL UFO-FLASH
UFO-FORMATION UFO-GR.Y UFO-GREEN UFO-IL UFO-LIGHT UFO-MYLIST
UFO-NOTLIGHT UFO-NV UFO-NY UFO-OH UFO-ORANGE UFO-PA UFO-PINK
UFO-PURPLE UFO-RED UFO-SILVER UFO-SPHERE UFO-TRIANGLE UFO-TX UFO-UT
UFO-WA UFO-WHITE UFO-YELLOW UFO USMILSPEND-L90d USMILSPEND USOILREV
WATERUFO UFO-WAVES WHALES WORLDOILREV-L90d WORLDOILREV XOM

I won't go into the details here. Rough plots and explanatory text is
available on my web site and I will eventually get around to making
that a bit of an exhibit with uniform documentation from source code
to details of relevant datasets used. But don't hold your breath.

As part of the tinkering I've been adjusting the basic nav model code.
Some of this is hinted at in the above list. For some phenomena the
site of the action is not earth. E.g. Mars Quakes and Transient Lunar
Phenomena (TLP) where we need to modify/hack the way the code
simulates trips between asteroids and a specific target like Mars, or
the Moon. Along the way we also looked at some other slightly modified
simulations that first directed travelling "objects" to e.g. the moon
and then allowed them to travel to the earth to be sighted 1 or 2 days
later.  Or directed them to Mars' moon Deimos and then allowed them to
land on Mars.  In this way we could determine whether the relevant
"bugs" were really heading for e.g. the moon or might be targeting
earth and perhaps just taking a side-trip to the moon to make a flash
or puff of dirt.  We'll come back to that at some point -- until then
the provisional finding was the objects targeted earth and whatever
was seen on the moon was related but happened some time later.
Therefore, perhaps, downplaying the possibility of an active if secret
moon base everyone was using unknown to anyone but a select few on
Planet Dirt.

The next step up from hacking in a different "destination" for
travelling objects is a simple mechanism to allow objects to travel
along a selected path from planet to planet on the way to e.g. earth.
This may come in useful to examine certain events such as COVID where
waves of disease seemed to correlate highly with the distance of
Mercury from the earth. We should note here that Mercury is an unusual
planet having the property that it moves around so fast it is actually
the closest planet, ON AVERAGE, to every other planet in the solar
system. IOW it would make a great 1/2-way station for trips from
anywhere to anywhere else.

So the adjustment went OK -- fairly simple even given the growing
rat's nest of C++ code that is the "nav model" program -- and the
initial results are in.

We set up the model to simulate "bugs" travelling between asteroids in
a select region of the solar system and sometimes coming to earth
*via* some other planet. The planets we selected for the various runs
were Mercury, Venus, Mars and Saturn. When a simulated UFO decides to
go to earth they decide first whether the "hub" object is actually closer 
and then go there first, if it is. If the earth is closer than the hub
object the trip goes direct to earth. At some point we might also
use info like how close the proposed trajectory gets to the sun.  
It seems from other data this may be a consideration for some of the
"bugs" we're talking about.

We have noted in the past that the "standard" nav model -- that
simulates bugs travelling direct to earth at a constant speed from
wherever they were in the solar system before that -- explain at least
1/3 of NUFORC sightings data since 2006 (when their web form went
online).  By tweaking which set of asteroids we assume are the "hang
out" asteroids of said bugs we can boost that up to 40% or so.

But using a "baseline" set of asteroids we find that the simulation
using an intermediate stop of Mercury out-performs the standard sim plus
others that choose other planets as a pit stop on the way to earth.

The numbers are thus:

Via     Alim INlim p_earth   Speed    p_leave    p_seen   Trans     R2
mercury 1 8 60 68  0.0779708 0.763491 0.00904612 0.13433  xylog2r   0.42662032
STD     1 8 60 68  0.0556389 0.587788 0.0010962 0.390916  log2r     0.36431482
mars    1 8 60 68  0.0778104 0.633804 0.0102232 0.138664  xylog2r   0.34843264
venus   1 8 60 68  0.0653541 0.72762 0.00970729 0.126832  xylog     0.33253108
saturn  1 8 60 68  0.0589337 0.652313 0.00968304 0.184136 xysqrt    0.28848704

In all cases the set of asteroids/comets assumed to be in the hangout
list are between 1 and 8 AU from the sun and an inclination between 60
and 68 deg relative to the plane of the earth's orbit (the ecliptic).

The "via" column is the planet assumed to be the hub for trips to
earth.  Each UFO in the simulation -- we generally start out assuming
about 10x the number of asteroids and comets in the "hang out" set --
moves from location to location using simple rules.  Every simulated
day the UFO captain decides whether or not to leave the asteroid or
planet they are on according to a probability (p_leave).  If they
decide to leave they choose to next goto earth according to
probability "p_earth". When travelling they move at a constant speed
directly toward earth (i.e.  as earth moves in its orbit the path
curves a little) according to "speed" (in AU/d). 0.3 AU/d is solar
escape velocity. So almost all simulations find the best explanation
of UFO sightings are speeds well above escape velocity and therefore
"unnatural". When a UFO arrives on earth it is seen with percentage
"p_seen" for each day that it stays.  The "trans" column in the above
table tell me what kind of translation happens from "sightings" to
"reports" at the relevant database. The AI program adjusts all the
parameters for a given set of asteroids to make the "match" against
UFO sightings as recorded by the (normally) NUFORC as strong as
possible.  The "R2" number shows what fraction of the day-to-day
changes in sightings is matched by day-to-day changes in the arrivals
of simulated UFO's in the nav model.

We can see the modified nav model using Mercury as a stepping stone to
earth is clearly better than the standard model that assumes they fly
direct to earth. The other planets tried as a hub perform less well
than Mercury or earth.

Which all seems to indicate that a chunk of UFO's may indeed be coming
via Mercury and matching against the waves seen in some of the
associated events we've looked at over the past few years.  E.g. the
waves of COVID infections. Again, I need to point out that just
because some things are strongly related does not mean they have a
negative connotation. At this point I have not separated out whether
the R2 is for a +ve corr or a -ve corr -- we just wanted to find the
largest one, not the largest one associated with something "bad".

In up-coming posts we'll start to look at how all these results hang
together. If the model or the idea behind the model has any validity
then we might expect certain patterns to turn up in the way the model
sees e.g. "(misc) cryptids", "Nessie", "Champ", "Bigfoot", and the
UK's "Alien Big Cats" -- all of which seem to be somewhat the same
kind of thing. If the results of the nav model sims "look very
similar" and yet look very different from the patterns with other
kinds of events we might start to accept there is something
non-trivial about how well the model matches up with UFO sightings.

--
I followed orders
God knows where I've been
But I woke up alone
All my wounds were clean
I'm still here
I'm still a fool for the holy grail
-- Holy Grail, Hunters & Collectors, 1992

"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
-- Marie Curie

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