Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and the pandemic -- lagged regrs at daily granularity

[uploaded 71 times; last 31/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Updating our correlation of virus data and UFO sighting data to
  day-by-day granularity allows us to time shift one against the other
  looking for the "best fit".
- Keeping in mind the assumed incubation for covid is regularly
  reported to be "days" and sometimes "about 7 days" we find the best
  R2 from the relevant lagged regression is found to be 6 days for US
  new daily virus cases and 5 days for US daily virus deaths. This is
  uncannily what we would expect if UFO reports were proximal with
  some number of covid infections.
- SAD.


More interesting patterns in the inbox today.

Overnight the s/w got around to updating its NUFORC database and
collected up the sightings for all of 2020.

It already collects daily data from JHU for the pandemic and these
periodically get posted somewhere else.

But with daily granularity in both sets we can now compare sightings
and virus cases or virus deaths in detail.  One of the details is we
would expect the "best match" to happen around a lag of 7
days. I.e. if UFO activity goes up on day T then if UFO activity and
virus cases are connected in some way then we would expect virus cases
to go up around T+7. I.e. there is an incubation time. If UFO's are
involved then the "UFO activity" might be expected to be related to
"infection" but it takes around 1 wk for the initial infection to
fight its way past the initial immune reaction in the nose and throat
and work its way down into the lungs, liver, heart, kidneys, pancreas,
intestines, spinal cord and brain -- "incubation" they call it.

So we again are going to match up a list of numbers for UFO activity
-- i.e. daily sighting reports -- and daily new covid cases for e.g.
the USA as tallied by Johns Hopkins and others, and gently slide the
UFO numbers along day by day by day to see how the match might improve
and dis-improve and find at which lag or delay the match is best.

Here is the exercise for the US daily new covid cases data for 2020:

Lag	R2 ("goodness of fit" metric) from UFO/daily new covid cases ts regr
00	0.00082523
01	0.18592728
02	0.02414537
03	0.14584127
04	0.02834430
05	0.29605630	<-- 2nd bump
06	0.67975747	<-- best match!
07	0.10828186
08	0.02969608
09	0.00248858
10	0.00140389
11	0.00234559
12	0.00465695
13	0.00931614
14	0.04529383

WOW! The best match seems to happen around day 6. So close to the
expected value you could smell it!

Let's try the same exercise for the covid daily death data for the USA:

Lag		R2 from UFO/daily deaths ts regr
00	0.00420934
01	0.26323479
02	0.35751984	<-- 2nd bump
03	0.00000290
04	0.05189656
05	0.38536232	<-- best match
06	0.24090955
07	0.00624614
08	0.01052389
09	0.00153894
10	0.02952213
11	0.14455393
12	0.00925671
13	0.06713448
14	0.00710066

Again it seems if UFO activity goes up then around 5 days later the
death rate from covid goes up.

Interesting that the death bump comes a little before the main "new
case" bump. This probably says something about how the first virus
worked. A lot of people can fight it off -- in many people the part of
the immune system in the nose can kill it before it even develops into
a sniffle.

So some people fight the virus and it may be 6 days before it develops
into something that would cause them or their doctor to do a test and
find that it's +ve.

OTOH some people can not fight the virus and after only 5 days those
people are dead from it.

In any case it is entirely suspicious that UFO activity is highly
correlated with covid cases after a time lag very very very close to
what we would expect if the time of the UFO activity corresponded to
initial infection.

Of course I may be totally mad. That's what I'm hoping, anyway.

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