Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: the mothership

[uploaded 49 times; last 31/10/2024]

I belatedly noticed a paper in prep by Avi Loeb and Pentagon UFO
hunter Sean Kirkpatrick that says it's "possible" an alien mothership is
lurking around in our solar system.

Well blow me down.

You can calculate where the mothership might be lurking by trying to
figure an orbit for it that might explain a lot of the UFO activity we
are seeing down here on planet Dirt. And I've done that a little
while ago. Make sure you're sitting down for this one because the answer
might spook you out.

We might assume that if "they" are here and are somehow interested in
us they may have setup shop somewhere in the ecliptic -- the plane of
the Earth's orbit. The biggest energy expenditure to go from A to B in
the solar system is shifting between orbital planes. Getting to an
asteroid at a high inclination to the ecliptic is harder than one at
lower inclination. You generally need a bigger delta-v budget for us
mere mortals that still move anywhere by shoving a bunch of garbage
out the other direction as fast possible. And a bigger delta-v might still
cost a flying saucer pilot a gilder so even they might be interested in
trying to do the trip as cheap as possible.

So we might start by looking for say a circular orbit (another
assumption) in the plane of the ecliptic such that the distance or
some function of the distance between that orbit and the Earth's orbit
goes up and down very much in synch with UFO activity.

The big test would be -- how WELL does that explain the ups and downs
of UFO activity over say the last 30 years.

Here comes the punch-line. It turns out a simple orbit explains "most"
UFO sightings. It explains them better than the orbit of any planet in our
solar system. While some planets seem to explain "some" of the month
to month changes in UFO numbers, they in no way explain as much as a
circular orbit that this one might be the one chosen by a visiting mothership.

So we can do the number crunching. It's actually a very simple program
that assumes the mothership orbits in a circular orbit at a constant
rate (i.e. eccentricity = 0), and the Earth does it's thing in its own
pretty much circular orbit. For each month calculate the average
distance between the mothership and the earth and see how much it goes
up and down in synch with the UFO activity reported e.g. to the
NUFORC. And twiddle around adjusting the orbit until you get the best
possible match and that match is also statistically robust e.g. could
not occur by just chance more than 1 time in 100.

So the program I played with found this solution:

The mothership is very very close to us. It's orbit is around 1.1 AU
out from the Sun. At some times of the year it gets exceedingly close.
At other times of the year it's on the other side of the sun. The
program finds in Jan 2000 it would have been around 60 degrees ahead
of us in its orbit. At that time the Earth would have been around
perihelion. 60 degrees ahead -- if you do some figuring with star
charts -- puts it 30 deg to the right of Procyon around that time.

And, as I say, the proof of this pudding is how well the orbit matches
up with UFO sightings -- almost 60% of them could be explained by how
close this hypothetical mothership would be to earth all the time
between Jan 2000 and now. It's often estimated that about 10% of UFO
reports represent "real" unusual stuff. But in this case a mothership
orbiting just outside the Earth's orbit would explain a whole lot more
and point to many more people being totally sober and of sound mind
when seeing things in the sky than previously thought.

For the stats heads the output from a regression that matches up the
hypothetical orbit 1.1 AU and 60 deg ahead of Earth in Jan 2000
against NUFORC reports up to March 2006 (when the methodology of collecting
reports changed) looks like:

Time Series Regression
(AUTO CORR CORRECTION; estimated rho = 0.194666)
y = -14.6954*log(x) + 24.1855
beta in -14.6954 +- 2.55232 90% CI
alpha in 24.1855 +- 1.97068
T-test: P(beta<0) = 1.000000
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = -0.715454
Critical value = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.56109083

I.e. the stats suggests the mothership people find it very easy to
travel between there and here. The "cost" seems to be according to the
log of the distance between there and here, not the linear
distance or some higher power of the distance -- the LOGARITHM of the
distance. This then sounds like some fancy kind of drive they use. Which is
expected. Because they probably don't use chemical rockets if they came here
from somewhere else.

2 statistical tests find the formula is highly significant -- it could
not be expected to happen by luck alone. Each test says there is less
than 1% probability there is no connection between something in this orbit
and UFO reports. Together the 2 tests suggest maybe only 1 chance in 1000 or
maybe even 1 chance in 10,000 it could just be luck.

The R2 number says 56% of month-to-month variation in UFO
sightings are predicted by the formula. I have seen better models for
predicting UFO activity -- some of them go to better than 90% -- but
this is by far the simplest formula. Essentially a simple calculation
and no other measurements will predict UFO activity out to years in the
future. If the aliens don't find out we might know where they are. :)

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

But what is true and I'm actually being serious here, is there are, there's
footage and records of objects in the skies that we don't know exactly what
they are, We can't explain how they moved, their trajectory. They did not
have an easily explainable pattern.
-- Pres Barack Obama, "The Late Show", 2021

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