Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: which ufos are from space?

[uploaded 27 times; last 28/09/2024]

Perhaps apropos of the latest Pentagon report that says most UFO
reports are misidentified ordinary objects (shock!)  we can take a
little look at what the data shows when you torture it some.

As discussed before I've been developing a very simple simulation
that presumes some fraction of the weird objects that have been
buzzing Navy ships since at least WWII do come from space.  The
question then arises -- where in space.

Starting local I've loaded the data for 1000s of known asteroids and
comets (planets and their moons as well) and ask the question -- which
set of asteroids is relevant to objects moving around the solar system
and sometimes landing on Earth to be mistaken for a coke bottle or
other ordinary object.  Is it even possible?

And the answer has been so far -- it's possible and an extremely close
match for some types of UFOs.

My programs have hunted and hunted and managed to isolate a set of
asteroids that seem to be involved in a good chunk of UFO
action. Assuming some UFO's are moving around the solar system from
asteroid to asteroid for reasons presently unknown, and sometimes
choose to come to earth, we can create a simple flight control program
that decides when to take off, where to head to, when to land and how
long to stay at the designation before taking off again.

The flight control program or "nav program" as I've been calling it is
very simple. It's assumed UFO's travel as constant speed in space and
decide to leave or head to earth based on a simple probability (which
we have to determine to get the match right).  We keep tinkering until
the match between the simulation's predicted arrive and departure of
UFO's from earth seems to closely match day by day UFO reports (as
usual I used the NUFORC database as it was at the end of 2023).

The programs that do the twiddle try to make absolutely sure ("5
nines") the match is not just luck, and that the model is predictive
rather than just a curve-fitting exercise.

In the last week or 2 the computers at Quant Central have been running
millions of sims for each type of UFO as well as all kinds of
paranormal and unusual phenomena and deciding if any of these are
connected with things moving around the solar system.  Surprisingly,
all the phenomena that have been suspected of being related in some
way all link with things moving around out there.  Each phenomenon
seems to have a "home" and different parts of the solar system seem to
specialize in one or two activities.  We'll get to that in the
fullness of time. :)

But today we'll look at the latest outputs showing which asteroids and
flight characteristics link with UFO sightings of selected colors and
shapes, where those asteroids are, and what the flight characteristics
of the UFO's might be that closely link with sighting reports. And, of
course, we also would like to see what proportion of sightings link
with those asteroid-hopping objects.  For some UFO types is
surprisingly large. And -- equally surprising -- for some UFO types
it's amazingly small.

It may well be certain types of UFO are "earthbound" while others
really are linked with interplanetary movements.

The list as of today is thus:

UFOtype       Asteroids             Nav parameters                      R2
ORANGE        1 9 75 90  0.0737505.0.21063.0.000964876.0.34739-y      0.7039918
MYLIST        0 14 56 66  0.0622003.0.688803.0.00105508.0.410044-x-ylog2r 0.6976
RED           1 9 75 90  0.0737505.0.21063.0.000964876.0.34739log2r   0.5903708
FIREBALL      0 10 59 66  0.0659106.0.632572.0.001007.0.137148log     0.5744418
PURPLE        1 9 60 68  0.0720268.0.205114.0.000997527.0.371879-ylog2r 0.551283
YELLOW        1 9 60 68  0.0637067.0.703556.0.00094897.0.396396-ylog  0.5124951
BLUE          1 9 60 68  0.0637067.0.703556.0.00094897.0.396396log2r  0.4751229
WHITE         1 9 60 68  0.076113.0.586786.0.000952877.0.129301-y     0.3976328
CHASE         1 9 75 90  0.0566785.0.209248.0.0291689.0.185315-x-y    0.3968151
GREEN         1 9 60 68  0.0637067.0.703556.0.00094897.0.396396-y     0.356798
PINK          1 9 75 90  0.06262.0.20768.0.000926839.0.208897-x-ylog2r  0.343956
UFO           1 9 60 68  0.076113.0.586786.0.000952877.0.129301log2r  0.3337852
NOTLIGHT      1 9 60 68  0.0637067.0.703556.0.00094897.0.396396log2r  0.3337760
LIGHT         1 9 75 90  0.0678734.0.56136.0.000986296.0.405259-ylog2r  0.319328
FORMATION     0 14 56 66  0.0858789.0.206258.0.00099245.0.189889-ylog2r 0.294323
FLASH         1 9 75 90  0.0740679.0.638749.0.00102677.0.350688-ylog  0.2814349
DAWN          1 9 60 68  0.0637067.0.703556.0.00094897.0.396396-xlog  0.2671365
FAINT         1 9 75 90  0.0678734.0.56136.0.000986296.0.405259-ylog  0.2165368
GR.Y          1 9 75 90  0.0678734.0.56136.0.000986296.0.405259-x-ylog  0.208292
DUSK          1 9 75 90  0.0678734.0.56136.0.000986296.0.405259log2r  0.1946283
DARK          0 14 56 66  0.0858789.0.206258.0.00099245.0.189889-ylog 0.1808562
BLACK         1 9 75 90  0.0757666.0.198993.0.00944516.0.344486-xlog  0.0912482
TRIANGLE      1 9 75 90  0.0671478.0.595123.0.00109396.0.416524log    0.0821853
SPHERE        1 5 20 30  0.0713543.0.646297.0.0310152.0.196276-xlog   0.0800991
CIGAR         1 5 20 30  0.0713543.0.646297.0.0310152.0.196276-xlog   0.0800991
SILVER        1 9 60 68  0.0599076.0.185913.0.000995627.0.147234-x-ylog2r 0.0670
DISK          0 10 59 66  0.0749531.0.584855.0.0104146.0.178036-x-ylog2r 0.05323
BRIGHTLIGHT   0 10 59 66  0.0610828.0.600018.0.000903168.0.172804     0.0442108


I'm sorry as usual about the table format. But all the details are present.

The first column gives the type of UFO being looked at.  The next 4
cols labelled "a1 a2 i1 i2" show which part of the solar system the
asteroids linked with that type of UFO live.  A1 and A2 are limits on
the distance of the asteroid from the sun in AU (astronomical
units). The I1 and I2 are the limits on the inclination of the
asteroids above the earth's orbital plane.

We see immediately many UFO types seem to link with asteroids WAY UP
above the ecliptic. About 60 deg is average for this bunch.  At that
inclination is would be very difficult for rockets based on earth to
get to those locations. With present earth tech that largest amount of
energy a rocket needs in interplanetary travel is to move from the
earth's orbital plane to the destination object's plane. For the
planets and the moons of those planets most are very close to the same
plane around the sun as the earth moves in.

But way up there at 60 deg is where most of these guys seem to like to
hang out.  A plot of a bunch of incl 60 asteroids against the background 
map of the night sky is here: <kym.massbus.org/UFO/bestresoutput.gif>.  
While the asteroids move around in a big "S" it turns out the best
places to look for funny things in the sky is around Vega and Canopus
that are seen to be in the middle of the loops of the "S".  I've
previously seen a lot of strange things in space telescope images
pointed in those directions. Even down here on earth you might every
now and then see a yellow flash around those 2 areas.

At the top of the list are "orange UFOs". This includes things that
are just reported as orange lights as well as objects that have a
large component of "orange light" within or around them.

Literally thousands of these objects have been reported since 2000.
And the AI programs say about 70% of them can be explained as
something that came from a bunch of asteroids between 1 and 9 AU from
the sun and between 75 and 90 deg above the earth's orbital plane.
These objects seem to fly as if they aim for earth on about 7% of their
trips. They travel around .2 AU/d (350 km/sec).  When they land they
tend to stay around 1000 days before leaving.  And when on earth they
have a chance of being seen around 35% of the time each day that are here.

At the other end of the list are Disk and Light that are described as
bright.  The simulations show only about 5% of reported sightings of
these kinds of things can be linked with anywhere in the solar
system. It seems these are the most likely things to be totally earth
resident or the subject of reverse engineering programs that don't exist.

If you want to see things from space it seems the best time to look is
dawn where the prob of an object being from an asteroid (according to
the models) is 27%. If you look at dusk then weird objects then are
less than 20% likely connected with space.

Overall, as we've seen in past posts, about 1/3 of all UFO's seem to
behave is if they could be hopping around the solar system between
asteroids at .6 AU/d (1000 km/sec). Not quite so ordinary as reported.

A few of these things will be the subject of future posts.  E.g. the
Fireball UFO's seem linked with space. But the pattern of behaviour is
much different from meteors. We will look at how the AI's try to model
NASA's meteor database with their methods and mostly fail. They are
not the same thing at all as the objects designed as flaming across
the sky and sometimes doing the odd right-angle turn.

--
"[F]or the few cases in all domains--space, air, and sea--that do
demonstrate potentially anomalous characteristics, AARO exists to help the
DOD, IC, and interagency resolve those anomalous cases. In doing so, AARO is
approaching these cases with the highest level of objectivity and analytic
rigor. This includes physically testing and employing modeling and
simulation to validate our analyses and underlying theories, and
peer-reviewing those results within the U.S. government, industry partners,
and appropriately cleared academic institutions before reaching any
conclusions."
-- Dr Sean Kirkpatrick, Senate Hearings on UFOs, 19 Apr 2023.

Unidentified aerial phenomena I. Observations of events
B.E. Zhilyaev, V. N. Petukhov, V. M. Reshetnyk
Main Astronomical Observatory, NAS of Ukraine,
Zabalotnoho 27, 03680, Kyiv, Ukraine
[...] We present a broad range of UAPs. We see them everywhere. We observe a
significant number of objects whose nature is not clear. Flights of single,
group and squadrons of the ships were detected, moving at speeds from 3 to
15 degrees per second. Some bright objects exhibit regular brightness
variability in the range of 10 - 20 Hz.  Two-site observations of UAPs at a
base of 120 km with two synchronised cameras allowed the detection of
a variable object, at an altitude of 1170 km. It flashes for one hundredth
of a second at an average of 20 Hz. [...]
An object contrast makes it possible to estimate the distance using
colourimetric methods.  [Objects with 0 albedo] are observed in the
troposphere at distances up to 10-12 km. We estimate their size from 3 to 12
meters and speeds up to 15 km/s. [...]
[Astronomers in Ukraine have undertaken their own independent survey
of objects they see flying over the Kyiv region at speeds around 15
km/sec.  They are watching the daytime sky at the zenith and in front
of the moon.  They see many objects -- some bright and some dark,
different sizes.  They travel often singly but sometimes in large
groups.  They report brightness is linked with speed. The spectrum
of bright objects is reportedly not reflected sunlight.  Objects
have been spotted inside the atm upto ~10 km but also out to ~1000 km
above the earth, travelling up to ~1000 km/sec.  They are not likely
anything sent by Russia or any other country].

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