Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: voyager grand tour seems to explain bumps in historical ufo sightings

[uploaded 68 times; last 17/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- News of a re-connect with Voyager 2 prompted a model to see whether
  probe fly-bys of the outer planets are associated with features in
  UFO sightings data between (say) 1950 and 2000.
- It seems the best-fit model finds all 4 planets are associated with
  features in the sightings data. 2 planets appeared to be associated
  with an increase in activity on approach of probe(s) and a decline
  after they pass; the other planets are the opposite.
- The fit now explains some of what appeared to be "random walks" in
  parts of the UFO sighting data.
- A future model is planned to examine in more detail the "double hit"
  from the Voyagers at Jup and Sat that visited months apart in 79 and
  then in 80/81.
- It seems everywhere you choose to look there are "signs".  Why are
  these now-old results not known? Willful blindness?


  Earth to Voyager 2: After a Year in the Darkness, We Can Talk to You Again
  The New York Times, 12 Feb 2021 10:43Z
  In the nearly 44 years since NASA launched Voyager 2, the spacecraft has
  gone beyond the frontiers of human exploration by visiting Uranus, Neptune
  and, ...

It will be 44y in mid Aug.

But it got me to thinking if all (if you mean 2) these probes
converging on Jupiter and Saturn in 79 and 80 might have caused some
kind of reaction if there are any "alien bases" out around there.

So we have to build a mathematical model and see whether the sightings
really seem to be affected by probes getting closer and closer and
closer and then getting further and further away and then getting
closer and closer and ... well, you get the idea.

So the basic element of this model will look like a_i(t_i-d)^r.
I.e. there is a "target date" (t_i) when a probe was due to run past
one of the outer planets, there is the current date (d).  And there
are a couple parameters (a_i, r) that need to be estimated to best-fit
the UFO sightings data.

To start with I'll only include the first dates for each of Jup, Sat,
Ur and Nep and gloss over the fact both Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 passed
by Jup and Sat within months so really those 2 components of the model
should be weighted a bit more heavily than Ur and Nep where only V2
visited. But maybe the fitting procedure will end up making the a_i
for Jup and Sat bigger than for the other 2.  Like you, I can hardly
wait to see.

I rigged up a simple fitter/optimizer using a genetic search for the
a_i and r on top of a basic time series regression with the overall
aim to maximize the R2 of the final model.

I also tried the "net present threat" type of function with terms like
a_i(1+r)^(|t_i-d|) but these turned out to be a slightly worse fit
than the first cut (above). It seems Our Friends are not going to
reveal their time-discount rate to us at this point! :)

After a few sec of chugging on what remains of poor old "baby"
(<kym.massbus.org/garage-pc/>) it spat out:

foo.4.108: COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.38669

Which is baby speak for "the best set of parameters I can find
explains about 39% of the month-to-month UFO sightings between 1950
and 2000".

The "4.108" is the best value of the "r" parameter and the a_i are
given by (drum-roll please ... ):

 LOG TRANSFORM ENABLED
 REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
     VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
         date        -0.33735         0.18547      -1.81888       0.06944
        t1jup         0.00036         0.00019       1.87776       0.06091
        t2sat        -0.00072         0.00039      -1.87182       0.06173
        t3ura         0.00057         0.00030       1.87929       0.06070
        t4nep        -0.00021         0.00011      -1.89274       0.05889
     CONSTANT       671.52863       367.98557       1.82488       0.06853
 WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =       332.94553
 DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =       583
 SCALE ESTIMATE          =         0.75570
 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.44870
 THE F-VALUE =       94.899 (WITH   5 AND  583 DF)   P - VALUE = 0.00000
 THERE ARE   589 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT.
 AVERAGE WEIGHT          =         0.97035

Which indicates a slew of interesting things. It seems the sign of the
a_i shows 2 planets seemed to affect UFO sightings in exactly the
opposite way from the other 2, and surprisingly none of the 4 was
"neutral". The procedure *could* have found UFO sightings did not
depend in any way where the probes were with respect to any or all of
the planets on the Grand Tour(s).

It seems Saturn and Neptune were related to sightings across the US
going down as the Voyager(s) approached and then up again after they
passed.

OTOH Jup and Ur as associated with the opposite effect -- as the
probes approached Jupiter sightings across the US/world (this is based
as usual on the NUFORC data which is mostly the US, some Canada, and
comparatively little from the UK, France or the rest of the world)
increased and then decreased after the probes passed.

Contrary to expectation on my part the "first contact" at Jupiter
showed a reaction that was about "half" the fly-bys at Saturn.

Maybe Saturn is "more important" to Our Friends than the others, just
going by the magnitude of the coefficient. The abs values for the a_i
in desc order are Saturn, Uranus, Jupiter and Neptune.

Apart from the effect related to the Voyager probes there is a
constant sightings rate of about 672 per month but that tended (over
the period ~1950-2000) to decrease about 0.3 sightings per month each
year. A tiny effect, but the stats program is "93% sure" it is there
(the P-val on the "date" coeff).

Overall, the s/w says there is almost 0 chance (the p-val on the F
statistic) the Voyager probes had no effect on UFO activity/sightings.
The model, above, tracks around 45% of the sighting data (remember
this was pre 2006 where NUFORC changed to a web report form and
subsequently receiving what seems like a lot of junk from trolls and
unhappy incels) and only about 3% of the data 1950-2000 falls more
than 1 sd away from the model.

The plot is at <kym.massbus.org/model/oe.gif> and shows the model in dark
green and the fuzzy cloud of UFO observations in light green.

It seems the otherwise unusual bends in the sightings data are not
totally unexplained.

I'll throw the model building to the AIs to mull over and see whether
they can find a more convincing fit against the full details of
planetary positions and the double fly-bys of Jup and Sat.  Can we see
Our Friends hurrying to sweep dust under the rug, let their belts out
again, then hurry to clean up again a few months later at each location?

--
Thought-detection: AI has infiltrated our last bastion of privacy
VentureBeat, 13 Feb 2021 15:09Z
Our thoughts are private - or at least they were. New breakthroughs in
neuroscience and artificial intelligence are changing that assumption, while
at the same ...

'How do I get home?' Frantic scenes as Australian Open hit by COVID-19 lockdown
Sporting News, 13 Feb 2021 04:07Z
It's 1 p.m. at the Australian Open on a beautiful, sunny Fri afternoon in
Melbourne, but no one's eyes are on the tennis. Everyone is glued to their
phones as ...

Quantum Theory Proposes That Cause and Effect Can Go In Loops
Universe Today, 12 Feb 2021 12:42Z
Causality is one of those difficult scientific topics that can easily stray
into the realm of philosophy. Science's relationship with the concept
started out simply ...

Eyes on France as Google strikes $98 mn deal with local publishers
ABC News, 12 Feb 2021 at 11:43pm
Google agrees to pay $98 mn over 3 years to a group of 121 French
news publishers, angering independent outlets who say the deal is unfair and
opaque.

Was Stonehenge moved? New clues suggest the prehistoric monument was first
built in Wales
USA TODAY, 12 Feb 2021 20:56Z
Origins of the prehistoric Stonehenge remain a mystery 5,000 years later,
but new research suggests that its bluestones may actually be a dismantled
Welsh ...

Four Oregonians tested positive for COVID after being fully vaccinated
KGW.com, 12 Feb 2021 22:35Z
Portland, Ore. The Oregon Health Authority (OHA) on Fri announced that
four Oregonians who have been fully vaccinated later tested positive for ...

Astronomers Looking for One Black Hole May Have Found an Entire Squad
Gizmodo, 12 Feb 2021 21:34Z
About 7800 light-years away-within our galactic neighborhood-is globular
cluster NGC 6397, basically a wad of stars held together by gravity. That
bunch of ...

Europa Decision Delivers Crushing Blow To NASA's Space Launch System (SLS)
Hackaday, 12 Feb 2021 18:34Z
These days, NASA deciding to launch one of their future missions on a
commercial rocket is hardly a surprise. After all, the agency is now willing
to fly their ...

Cause of mysterious dark streaks on Mars found
Livescience.com, 12 Feb 2021 18:33Z
Landslides may be causing mysterious dark streaks on the Martian surface,
scientists have found.

With a reported deal in the wings for Joby Aviation, electric aircraft soars
to $10B business
Yahoo Tech, 12 Feb 2021 14:31Z
One year after nabbing $590 mn from investors led by Toyota, and a few
months after picking up Uber's flying taxi business, Joby Aviation is
reportedly in ...

[Immuni^H^H^HReinfected!]
Recovered Covid patients have been reinfected with new virus strains, WHO says
CNBC, 12 Feb 2021 21:01Z
Preliminary reports from South Africa show people who have recovered from
Covid-19 have been reinfected with a new, more contagious variant of the virus.

New study reveals biodiversity important at regional scales
Phys.org, 11 Feb 2021
New research shows that biodiversity is important not just at the
traditional scale of short-term plot experiments-in which ecologists monitor
the health of a ...

Scientist proposes a new timeline for Mars terrains
Phys.org, 11 Feb 2021 22:02Z
A Southwest Research Institute scientist has updated Mars chronology models
to find that terrains shaped by ancient water activity on the planet's
surface may ...

Portrait of young galaxy throws theory of galaxy formation on its head
Phys.org, 11 Feb 2021 20:02Z
Scientists have challenged our current understanding of how galaxies form by
unveiling pictures of a young galaxy in the early life of the Universe
which ...

Microsoft calls on other countries to follow Australia's lead on media
bargaining code
ABC News, 12 Feb 2021 0:45Z
Microsoft's Brad Smith says the United States Government should not object
to Australia's media bargaining code, urging govts such as the US,
Canada and the European Union to follow Australia's lead in forcing tech
giants to pay for news content.