Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: mars quakes v2.0

[uploaded 2 times; last 19/09/2024]

Apropos the recent announcement a subterranean ocean has been
found on Mars, together with the discovery of several large "volcanic
holes" that may connect with it, we'll look again at the link between
odd noises heard by an instrument on the red planet over the past few years
and events reported earthside.

The Big News is the ocean. In the last few years similar announcements
have hit the headlines for a growing list of planetary moons and
sometimes the planets themselves. It seems for our neighbourhood, and
we may suspect maybe in general, surface oceans are an oddity.
Underground oceans are the norm. For Mars the suspect volume of water
is maybe around 1 mi thick and 12 mi under the surface.

So it sounds like this give the prospect of "microbes" living on Mars
-- maybe even Sea Monkeys -- a bit of a boost.

But we already saw in a prev post there may be more things
lurking around Mars than microbes. At least the Insight package has
heard a lot of grindings and bangs, running into dozens per day,
that for some mysterious reason rise and fall in numbers a couple of
weeks ahead of COVID cases rising and falling on Earth in the same way.
As we can all appreciate a good entirely fortuitous coincidence we note the
operation of the Insight seismometer began in 2019, went on holiday in 2020,
then started up again in 2021. Just in time to capture all the relevant action.
Surely not because of inside info. Surely not.

But now we might anyway have a reason to zoom in again on that dataset.
The last update available at present is "v14" from the start of 2019 to end
2022. There's an understandable lockdown gap, as I said, in 2020.

The dataset divides each "bump and grind" into a sequence of detection
events or "waves". The processing has extracted various key features
found to be useful here on Earth for such observations.  Basically,
each wave is broken down into key frequency components and some
tricky processing enables a direction and distance to be
calculated for the origin of what do not mostly rise above the level
of "odd noises" rather than quakes.

The display of the basic data is at <kym.massbuss.org/MARSQUAKES>.

Today we'll use that data to see if it predicts UFO sightings and, if
so, what types and how well.

The first run through with one simple stats package tells me there is
reason to look closer. The table of the best simple matches between
Mars quake data and UFO sightings data (I use the NUFORC daily data
between 2019 and 22 here) looks like this:

Quake series            Lag     UFO type     Filt    R2
RSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY   L0      Cigar        o1      0.32127656
RSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY   L1      Oval         o1      0.31628715
mRSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY  L1      Oval         o1      0.31228635
RHIGH_FREQUENCY         L1      Oval         o1      0.28481780
mRHIGH_FREQUENCY        L1      Oval         o1      0.27992676
R2.4_HZ                 L12     RSphere      o1      0.23423673
R2.4_HZ                 L18     RDisk        o1      0.23262600
mRHIGH_FREQUENCY        L0      RRectangle   o1      0.22612831
RSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY   L1      Cigar        o3      0.21408746
marsquakes              L14     RFireball    o1      0.20110218
RHIGH_FREQUENCY         L1      Cigar        o3      0.19530627
mRSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY  L15     mRChevron    o1      0.19017452
mRSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY  L19     Oval         o1      0.18260480
R2.4_HZ                 L5      RCircle      o1      0.18072578
2.4_HZ                  L12     RSphere      o1      0.17881959
RSUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY   L19     Oval         o1      0.17664532
RHIGH_FREQUENCY         L15     mRChevron    o1      0.17397841
SUPER_HIGH_FREQUENCY    L11     Light        o1      0.17359241
mRHIGH_FREQUENCY        L14     Fireball     o1      0.17300818

The Mars quake data here is just the number of events day by day of
the different types. When the numbers are sparse -- some event types
have happened <100 times in the several years of data -- the "rate"
(R) is calculated. IOW the annual rate of those events is calculated
at each point from the surrounding data-points.  In some cases there is
still not enough data to use in the basic time series regression so a
"midpoint" (m) between extant data-points is inserted as a kind of
minimal missing value. It essentially doubles the available data by
estimating between any 2 consecutive data-points the middle value is
around the average of the points on either side.  For some UFO types
these 2 things are sometimes forced on us as well and the codes in the
"UFO type" column shows where.

The Lag column gives the number of days the Mars quake data was
shifted to make it better align with the UFO data. Some data did not
seem to require a shift. Some needed to be moved e.g. 19 days into the
future to align better with the UFO sightings.  In many prev studies
we noted this could be interpreted as an indication of how fast
information travels from the site of the relevant event (i.e. Mars
bump here) to the sighting event some 1 to 3 AU away, depending on the
relative positions of Earth and Mars at the time. Because the Mars
data is given in (approx) GMT and UFO sightings is "local time"
(can of worms) as remembered (BIG worms) by witnesses sometimes weeks
or months later lags may not be very good estimates of the actual time
shifting needed for a best match.  But we try.

The Filt column as per usual indicates how many noisy values were
tossed out by the regression software as being "too far" from an
otherwise interesting trend line it was focusing on.  The "o1" code
indicates about 25% of the data was tossed out.  "o2" is around 10%
and "o3" is around 1%.

The R2 column shows how well the ups and downs of the UFO
sightings seemed to have been predicted by simular ups and downs
(after possible time shifting and outlier tossing) in the Mars quake data.

All matches passed 2 independent statistical tests by better than 90%
confidence. Together we might infer only 1 chance in 1,000, and
possibly as high as 1 chance in 10,000, the matches could be as good
as observed if it was only just luck. Something is going on.  But we
don't know what. It could be as mundane. We we suspect it is
interesting. Esp in light of the possible ocean news and the growing
list of "black holes" that are being seen by Mars orbiters around the planet.

So we have some reason to look closer. And when building models with
this incremental approach the next step is probably to throw all the
data in at once and use some data science type methods to make sure we
are really really careful to check whether there is predicting going
on rather than just curve fitting.

When you put a straight line through a bunch of points on your
high-school science project you probably are just replicating what
1000s of scientists before you did and you therefore have very good
reason to expect whatever the line shows is actually "real".  But on
a new dataset there is a problem. There is no good logical reason to
believe any "line of best fit" is real.  The only real way to know is
to use your fitting strategy on PART of the data (being real careful
to not even look at the other part of the data for fear of being
contaminated with unconscious biases), then uncover the part of the
data you hid from yourself to see if the line of best fit also extends
very close through those data-points as well.  If so -- joy.
Otherwise, sound of shredding lab notes.

We can get a program to do all the careful checking and see what is what.
We'll ask it to use all the Mars quake data together for the
period 2019-2022 (with a gap in 2020), use rates and midpoints and
even interpolation if it wants to, but do it carefully against the
common types of UFO reports (I break them down by the NUFORC's own
"shape" category plus any colour words I can see in the short comment
that sometimes appears on relevant NUFORC web pages).  So we will have
enough data-points for the matching I restricted the comparison
operation to only the most common shapes and colours.

The computers went away and came back soon after with startling results.
It seems Mars quakes (less the gap in 2020) seem to almost
exactly explain UFO sightings of many types. By "almost exactly" we
mean an R2 so called "explanation power" of the relevant statistical
model better than 90%. For some UFO types there seems to be no other
data needed to predict their sightings. While this does not mean all
UFO's come from Mars it does mean there is some kind of very
strong connection -- no matter how long and twisting the exact causal
chain -- between bumps heard at the Insight lander site and strange
objects observed in the air over N America quite a few miles away,
upto several weeks later.

The summary results for the validate multiple-variable regressions
look like:

UFO type	Best R2 using Mars frequency data
white		0.98605
Light		0.98455
Circle		0.98117
Other		0.98085
red		0.98050
orange		0.97967
Triangle	0.97848
Fireball	0.97696
blue		0.97388
green		0.97063

It should be pointed out that each muti-var regr run is actually 3
runs. That particular program runs a straight regr including the time
data (so it's similar to a time series regression), a least median of
squares regression that is supposed to be more robust that traditional
sum-of-squares regression, and finally a weighted LMS to push down
points that seem to be too noisy. Each of these produces an R2 and
only the median of these is show in the above table. On top of that is
the "validation" process where the program uses the first 1/2 (by time
order) of the data to calculate the various parameters of the model,
then checks the 2nd 1/2 of the data matches the same model just as
well (according to various statistical measures) as the 1st 1/2.

The plot of the match between modelled (via Mars quake data) and
observed "white (light) UFO" sightings is here:

<kym.massbus.org/MARSQUAKES/dir.logi3Rufowhite/oe.gif>.

The software trained itself on essentially the data for 2019, then
found the same model for 2021 matched just as well.  In data science
we sometimes talk about predicting the trunk of the elephant from a
picture of the back end. The AI programs are so good these days this
now happens un-remarkably often.

So we seem to have some reason to suspect sightings of "white lights"
and "Triangles" may have more than a little to do with bumps and bangs
heard on Mars by some robot over the past few years.

I also note the dataset includes the strength, direction and range for the
sources of 100s of the bumps. Given the Insight package is on the W side of a
"planitia" we can narrow at least some of the bigger bumps -- not
necessarily by themselves a good explanation for any UFO reporting --
off to the WSW 20,30,100 km away. Somewhat unsettling the vast majority
of the noise seens to come from  directly under the instrument itself.
This may be because the noises are really occurring down there, or it may
just be the signal processing back on Earth can not determine exactly
where they are coming from because they are too faint or confused and
it spits out a funny number that boils down to "1 meter away".

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