Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and nuclear plants 

[uploaded 43 times; last 17/09/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We look at the relationship between location of US nuclear plants
  and UFO sightings of different types.
- We find there is a strong statistical link. States with more nuke
  plants or more reactors seem to report more UFO sightings of certain types.
- But when we adjust all the data for state populations we find a
  surprising result. States with more plants or reactors per capita
  have FEWER sightings of certain types per capita.
- It seems some UFO types are "shy" of concentrations of reactors.
- We recall UFO's of certain types also seem to be shy to approach
  concentrations of Air Force Bases (but seemingly not concerned about
  Army bases).  It's unclear what about nuclear plants might explain
  the pattern. Increased security?


I just dropped by the BV where they had some documents from the NRC.
It seems the Nuclear agency has a list of UFO sightings it's been
maintaining (more or less) from the 1950s. Some of them involve
sightings seen at nuclear plants by staff, and some are related to
letters they receive from the public about UFO activity in the
neighbourhood -- something the NRC tells writers it has no remit
to investigate but thankyou for your letter.

And of course the Big Report released recently did mention at least in
passing that some nuclear weapons facilities (and maybe some aircraft
weapons systems) have apparently been "interfered with" at the same
time as one or other UFO was in the vicinity. This has elsewhere been
taken by some people as a message "get rid of your nukes; they
are dangerous".  But some of the more jaded of us also spot a possible
continuation of a pattern of low-level intimidation and the message
might really be "surrender now; your best weapons are useless against
us".  Of course the first part might also be "leave us alone; we don't
want to talk with you".

So, naturally, we have to take a look at whether nuclear plants
actually seem to "attract" UFO activity or not. Or something else. :)

From the NUFORC we can break down sightings by US state.  And various
lists are available counting commercial nuclear plants and total
number of reactors for each state. The situation is complicated a bit
because reactors and plants as a whole can come and go as the
economics and other factors dictate. So a count of reactors is
generally only applicable to some specific year.

But we can run the numbers through some robust regressions and see
what we get. As usual I'll only concentrate on those regressions that
pass 2 statistical tests -- a T-test on the \beta and a rank test on
the comparative ordering of the X and Y data -- at 90% confidence. And
then we only will look at the top10 results by R2 -- the so called
"explanation power" of the statistical model.  The higher the R2 the
larger the percentage of state-by-state variation in UFO activity is
matched by similar state-by-state variation in the nuclear plant or
reactor numbers.

We'll also break the UFO numbers down in terms of "type" (mostly
determined by visible shape as determined by the folks at NUFORC) and
also pre 2006 and post 2006 when NUFORC started using a web report
form that greatly changed the character of reports they received.

OK. Got all that under your belt? Then let's look at the results and
prepare for a shock.


Nuke type       UFO type                R2              \beta +- 90% CI
                Years   Shape
plants          <2006   Triangle         0.46505011     5.19158 +- 1.34795
plants          <2006   Circle           0.43177366     3.73168 +- 1.04776
reactors        >2006   Egg              0.42952165     2.16787 +- 0.604824
reactors        >2006   Cigar            0.42177169     5.56501 +- 1.59478
reactors        >2006   Light            0.42115611     56.481 +- 16.2064
plants          >2006   Triangle         0.41961490     42.8254 +- 12.1928
plants          >2006   Egg              0.41869157     3.78347 +- 1.07923
reactors        <2006   Triangle         0.41813878     2.78489 +- 0.795291
plants          >2006   Cigar            0.41392097     10.9026 +- 3.14065
plants          >2006   Fireball         0.41316531     40.22 +- 11.7318

Which all seems to indicate for those states with more nuke plants
(or indiv reactors) there seems to be more Triangle and Circle UFO
activity, at least as reported prior to NUFORC before 2006.

The \beta for the "best model" (first line) says for each nuclear
plant in a state there is an overall pattern of about 5+-1 Triangle
UFO reports prior to 2006. The 2 stat tests say the association is
<10% likely to be some noise in the data or a chance link.

It seems open and shut, more or less. UFO's of certain types seem to
be "attracted" to nuclear plants. Or maybe that is people that see
UFO's of certain types are likely to live in states with more nuclear plants.

And this is almost universally what UFO researchers and some chunk of
the general public believe. "They" are hanging around nuclear sites
"for some reason".

But -- the surprise bit is now coming -- we would expect larger states
to have a larger number of reactors and probably plants. And we would
expect larger states to also report more UFO activity. Maybe the link
is due entirely to this underlying "common factor".

So let's re-do the whole exercise but this time based on plants/million
cap and UFO sightings/mn cap instead of raw counts.

The top 10 largest R2 models then become:

Nuke type       UFO type                R2              \beta +- 90% CI
                Years   Shape
plantspc        >2006   Diskpc           0.20324200     -11.2117 +- 5.43318 
plantspc        >2006   Otherpc          0.17687100     -17.9411 +- 9.57942
recatorspc      <2006   Conepc           0.14538338     -0.569959 +- 0.338218 
plantspc        <2006   Flashpc          0.13766746     -0.93742 +- 0.594288 
plantspc        >2006   Cylinderpc       0.13480402     -4.18458 +- 2.59467 
recatorspc      <2006   Eggpc            0.13343271     -0.62297 +- 0.397457 
recatorspc      <2006   Unknownpc        0.13294601     -1.589 +- 1.00437 
recatorspc      >2006   Conepc           0.12749719     -1.38299 +- 0.895438 
recatorspc      <2006   Crosspc          0.12639032     -0.433907 +- 0.282346 
recatorspc      >2006   Changingpc       0.12563661     -4.16071 +- 2.71668 

SURPRISE!

Not only are the R2's reduced a lot from the above table of raw counts,
but all the \beta's are now negative. These are the top10 results but
no combination of plant/reactor and year/type showed a positive \beta
that was statistically significant.

It seems UFO's are actually "scared" of nuclear plants.

Taking the best model, above, we find for each nuclear plant per
million cap there are 11 FEWER Disk sightings per mn cap in that state
in the data prior to 2006.

If you're the curious type we can look at the first model in detail:

MODEL (plants/mn cap vs pre 2006 Disk sightings/mn cap):

y = -11.2117*x + 13.2465
beta in -11.2117 +- 5.43318  90% CI
alpha in 13.2465 +- 1.31111 
T-test: P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999425
calculated Spearman corr = -0.511939
Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.20324200

DATA:

State                plants/mn cap   Disk/mn cap   model-predicted Disk/mn cap
Alabama                  0.411609      6.37994      8.63165
Arizona                  0.146454      16.9887      11.6045* (model -1sd re obs)
Arkansas                 0.335773      10.0732      9.48191
California              0.0255462      10.9593      12.9601
Colorado                        0      15.7608      13.2465
Connecticut              0.278483      11.6963      10.1242
Delaware                        0      10.5716      13.2465
District.of.Columbia            0      7.43795      13.2465*(+1sd)
Florida                  0.147993      10.5075      11.5872
Georgia                  0.195793      7.73383      11.0513
Hawaii                          0      10.4778      13.2465
Idaho                           0      19.3362      13.2465*(-1sd)
Illinois                 0.466563      8.55366      8.01552
Indiana                         0       11.632      13.2465
Iowa                     0.320113      8.96316      9.65748
Kansas                   0.343449      8.24277      9.39584
Kentucky                        0      12.2031      13.2465
Louisiana                0.428199      6.42299      8.44565
Maine                           0       17.302      13.2465
Maryland                 0.166489      8.82392      11.3799
Massachusetts                   0      10.0082      13.2465
Michigan                 0.302341      7.76008      9.85674
Minnesota                0.364326      9.83679      9.16178
Mississippi              0.334187      5.68119      9.49969
Missouri                 0.164374      13.6431      11.4036
Montana                         0      18.3939      13.2465*(-1sd)
Nebraska                 0.527373      6.85585      7.33374
Nevada                          0      15.2205      13.2465
New.Jersey               0.223264      9.04218      10.7433
New.Mexico                      0      22.5408      13.2465**(-2sd)
New.York                 0.202063      7.82995       10.981
North.Carolina           0.298721      10.3557      9.89732
North.Dakota                    0      5.28453      13.2465*(+1)
Ohio                     0.172215      7.31912      11.3157
Oklahoma                        0      8.94834      13.2465*(+1)
Oregon                          0      18.8633      13.2465*
Pennsylvania             0.312439      9.06073      9.74352
Rhode.Island                    0      22.7209      13.2465**(-2)
South.Carolina           0.816969      10.6206      4.08686*(-1)
South.Dakota                    0      12.8135      13.2465
Tennessee                0.303017      10.1511      9.84916
Texas                    0.072809      5.71551      12.4302*(+1)
Utah                            0      13.3515      13.2465
Vermont                         0      22.3627      13.2465**(-2)
Virginia                        0      9.66242      13.2465
Washington               0.139463      18.5486      11.6829*(-1)
West.Virginia                   0       10.303      13.2465
Wisconsin                 0.17327      8.14369      11.3038
Wyoming                         0      11.9432      13.2465


The model predictions are not particularly good -- you know from the
R2 that 80% of the state-by-state variation must be related to
"something else" -- but the stat tests say the nuclear plants are a
factor.  Both tests are 90% sure the factor is -ve. I.e. more plants
means fewer reports of Disks in that state (in the pre 2006 part of
the NUFORC dataset).

It seems the folkloric belief "they are interested in our nukes" has
been misled by a "confounding factor". Adjusting for state populations
it seems, if anything, some types of UFO's are "scared off" by too
many nuclear plants.

We recall also a previous post that suggested UFO's are also shy about
appearing in states with large numbers of AFB's.  While they still
make the occasional appearance in such states, they appear
increasingly more the further away from those bases the sightings
come. The shape of this curve can be analyzed to guess what it is the
UFO's are "shy" of. E.g. a curve that shows UFO numbers rise linearly
the further from a cluster of AFB's they occur it suggests they
consider something that travels at constant speed (i.e. takes a time
proportional to distance to reach them) as some kind of
threat. E.g. aircraft that might be scrambled to intercept them.

If the curve rises with other characteristic shapes other cases
suggest certain UFO types are concerned about interception by area
patrols (rather than scrambled interceptors) or approx
constant-accelerating ground-to-air missiles.

Why they may be avoiding concentrations of nuclear plants (all the
ones we listed above are supposedly civilian power generating plants)
is not clear. Certainly security might be "touchy" in those areas.  We
hope the concern is not connected with possible interference between
the operation of the plant and whatever plant and engines the UFO are
using.  That could be nasty for everyone.

--
Upcoming events:
9 Jul 2021		NOAA Billion Dollar Disasters Q2

UFOs are an intriguing science problem; Congress must act accordingly
The Hill on MSN.com, 08 Jul 2021 21:31Z
"Lack of wings and lack of evident means of propulsion clearly rule out
conventional aircraft and helicopters. Many are ...

Military exercise in the Black Sea 2021 attracted the attention of UFO
Newsflare, 04 Jul 2021 17:33Z
On the day of the beginning of the military exercises, which are
taking place near the city of Odessa, next to which I live, I noticed
something in the sky. The object caught my attention because it ...

Democratic Rep. André Carson Calls for Congressional Hearings on UFO Sightings
Newsweek, 04 Jul 2021 18:35Z
"We still can't rule out that 2-to-6 percent we can't explain, maybe
even otherworldly," the Indiana congressman said of the ...

Why UFO sightings appear to have decreased during the Covid-19 pandemic
IOL News, 03 Jul 2021 11:03Z
In a year-and-a-half, the South African chapter of the Mutual UFO Network,
(Mufon) has had one reported sighting of an ...
[Innerestin! Exactly the opposite for the other side of the mid Atl
ridge where there was a big quake in the first 1/2 of 2020.  Sightings
went up after that and then decayed away to "normal" by the end of the
year. The AI s/w said the 2 things were beyond-chance linked].