Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports,alt.paranet.ufo
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: certain ufo types implicated in disappearances; others cleared

[uploaded 4 times; last 19/09/2024]

We've looked at this a couple times. This time there'll be a twist or 2.

Someone pointed me at the US National Missing and Unidentified Persons
System (NamUS) for missing persons cases in the US broken down by state.  
I had failed to get a similar package from the FBI or even a couple 
researchers in the rolladex that have done detailed work on FBI data.

But the tip came with a warning the NamUS only handles a relatively
few missing persons cases -- maybe 100s a year compared with the 10s
of 1000s the FBI receives. NamUS is pretty much the last federal port 
of call for long-term missing persons or unidentified remains.

The data has proven to be useful. For at least the years 21-23 the
published reports list the "top 10" states for missing persons.
In some reports they list month by month totals of all their cases.  
In later reports (unfortunately) they hive off just their new cases 
and further break them down into missing, unidentified bodies, and 
people wandering at large without a memory of who they are.  
(These are all similar to the various FBI categories).

Now the big deal with breaking down by state -- as with most US-based
data -- each jurisdiction allows the same "numerical experiment" to be
run multiple times thereby improving the reliability of any result. If
X is found to be correlated with Y in most US states then it's
generally a more certain bet than one that just correlates across the
whole county but may nor may not be the case in most locations.

So we can setup one of my least favourite studies. Does UFO activity at
all predict long term missing persons cases in each state of the US
for the admittedly small number of years/months we have out of the
published reports from the NamUS?

I'm glad you asked. Yes. Yes it does.

Interestingly the case of the total UFO count correlating with the
dataset -- no. But for certain types of UFO's there is a strong link.
Even more interesting, given the broken-down data we can fairly
reliably RULE OUT certain UFO types as having any strong connection 
with long term missing persons. Of course that doesn't rule out the 
odd probing. But it might be argued if X don't get involved in one nasty
interaction they may be thought of as less likely to be involved in
others -- at least in general.

So the first set of results looks like this.  We broke both UFO's down
by state and month over the period, all in per million cap terms, then 
correlated all of that against the NamUS "case load" data for the same 
states and months. And certain things turned up passing 2 statistical 
tests for "these are connected" with 90% conf or better:

UFO type	Filt	Transf	R2		Beta	Stderr(Beta)
tcolor@brown    1       none    0.66912388      171.639    46.5478 
tcolor@pink     1       none    0.44419487      22.987     9.18908 
tcolor@faint    1       none    0.28264351      9.08773    4.01552 
tCone           1       none    0.22868126      13.6555    4.39348 
tStar           1       none    0.13952635      4.91057    1.94683 
tTriangle       1       none    0.12328753      2.02157    0.826311 
tChanging       1       none    0.11039763      1.85281    0.806184 
tcolor@gray     1       none    0.08420366      13.0127    10.0671 
tTeardrop       1       none    0.07895162      8.15948    5.15236 
tcolor@grey     2       none    0.07438892      13.9611    8.82997 
tcolor@black    1       none    0.05419165      2.87355    1.84009 
tcolor@green    1       none    0.04626706      1.42113    0.989 
tcolor@dark     1       none    0.04199117      3.18336    2.42743 
tLight          1       none    0.02494417      0.543657   0.486345 
        
Of the 45 groups of UFO classified by either shape or color only
these passed our 2 usual tests at 90% or better.  The R2 shows
e.g. "brown" UFO's seem to explain 2/3 of the NamUS missing and unid
body data. For each brown UFO per million cap reported in the average
state, there's around 171 per million more reports of long term missing 
or unid people from that state in the NamUS dataset.  And so on down the
line. The good news is 30 UFO types are not robustly connected with
the missing persons data.

But now for the more interesting item. In statistical reasoning there
are not just 2 values -- true and false -- there are 3.  We can
provide strong evidence a proposition true; we can provide strong
evidence it is false; or the grey area -- we can fail to do either.
The above list we have nominally connected with missing persons data; but
we haven't proved anyone else is NOT connected with the data.

To do that we simply need to tinker with out statistical tools.
Instead of making it HARD to pass the relevant statistical tests which
my programs nominally set at "10% or less likely just to be a fluke of
the dataset" (aka "90% confident there is a connection") we can flip
the script and make the test easy. If some group then FAIL to pass the
test they are likely "innocent" and "in no way" connected with missing
persons. E.g. I can ask which groups do NOT pass both statistical
tests at 5% confidence rather than those that do pass at 90%.

And that list (in alphabetical order, because there is no "degree of 
innocence" in this test) looks like:

Chevron
Cigar
Circle
Cross
Cylinder
Diamond
Disk
Egg
Fireball
Flash
Formation
Other
Oval
Rectangle
Sphere
Unknown
color@blue
color@bright
color@cream
color@gold
color@purple
color@red
color@silver
color@violet
color@white
color@yellow

None of these groups passed both statistical tests at 5%.  They failed
miserably. Even if there was a HINT of an association they should have
passed them. But they didn't.

This, of course, doesn't stand up in a court of law. But it is useful
evidence. Maybe there *are* good and bad UFO's (judging from the point
of view whether they do something most people would not like) like 
many people that have long-term experience studying the phenomenon say.

And it seems there is good statistical evidence of some such thing.

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