Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: digging into Florida's sinkholes

[uploaded 84 times; last 31/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- There's a vague connection in the folklore between UFO's and big holes
  in the ground.
- We look at the correlation between UFO sightings and Florida's
  sinkholes.
- For "all" (mostly N Am based) UFO sightings there is a strong corr
  that finds more UFO sightings in a year is related to less sinkholes
  per month in Fla.
- But for Florida UFO sightings there is an even stronger corr but
  it's positive -- for more Florida sightings there are expected to be
  more sinkholes/mo in Fla in the same year.
- We wonder if there is a similar link in the UK where huge sinkholes --
  ostensibly linked with the extensive unmapped mines left over from
  centuries of digging up minerals -- are a growing feature of the
  urban landscape.


  Siberia's Newest Exploding Crater Has Been Mapped in 3D
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A few months ago when I started digging into the UFO data one of the
first factoids that got tossed up was an unusual similarity between
the weather in Siberia and UFO activity.  It seemed as the cloud cover
change in a certain chunk of coastal NE Russia UFO sightings went up
and down in parallel.

Well. It could be a coincidence.

I fed the rough coordinates of the region in question into google --
everyone was using google back then -- and up popped a story about
someone seeing a diamond ufo coming and going from a huge mysterious
hole that got blown into the tundra in the same region.

Well. It could be a coincidence.

Another item concerned a group of Russian students that visited an
island off the coast and "saw something". Sounded pretty unusual.

Well. It could be a coincidence. Ask any member of the intel
community. They are always finding coincidences and it's nothing
unusual at all.

And today in my inbox is another story about big mysterious holes in
the ground.  But this time it's in Florida.

Seems the AIs have been scrounging around the internet and found a
sinkhole database created by a group at USF
<http://fcit.usf.edu/Florida/maps/galleries/sinkholes/>.

And the first thing they do these days is see whether it correlates
against UFO activity. And. Bingo! Another coincidence!

Here's the average monthly sinkhole count they extracted from the URL.

Year	Av new sinkholes/mo
1909	10.6667
1948	1
1950	1
1954	1
1955	1
1956	4
1957	1
1958	1
1959	1.5
1960	1
1961	4
1962	4
1963	1
1964	2.2
1965	2
1966	1.5
1967	1.85714
1968	1.25
1969	1.57143
1970	4.2
1971	1.875
1972	2.3
1973	4.5
1974	5.7
1975	2.8
1976	2.1
1977	4.5
1978	2.9
1979	3.16667
1980	2.55556
1981	11.75
1982	9
1983	8.5
1984	5.58333
1985	12.5833
1986	9.91667
1987	10.1667
1988	13.6667
1989	11.25
1990	8.33333
1991	6.8
1992	1.6
1993	1.8
1994	3.5
1995	4.90909
1996	4.27273
1997	3.45455
1998	5.90909
1999	4.91667
2000	9.33333
2001	8.58333
2002	9.91667
2003	7.91667
2004	3.45455
2005	2.63636
2006	3.2
2007	1.5

Luckily this spans the "pre internet report form" part of the NUFORC
data so there is no numerical problem with suddenly changing from a
low number of sightings reported per month and 10x sightings reported
per month.

So the time series regression of NUFORC sightings and the sinkhole
numbers, above, is as follows:

y = -0.00846662*x + 4.79309
beta in -0.00846662 +- 0.00473496  95% CI
alpha in 4.79309 +- 0.861821
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999021
calculated Spearman corr = -0.732143
Critical Spearman = 0.623000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.53442685
(No serial corr detected).

Binned data:

Bin label              av #sightings  av #sinkholes  model-est #sinkholes
      2003                18.1115      6.02576      4.63975*(-1sd under obs)
      1961                30.9909      4            4.5307
      2005                42.02        3.31818      4.43732*(+1sd)
      1984                67.3683      5.58333      4.22271*(-1sd)
      1970                74.6733      4.2          4.16086
      1981                84.2165      5.10714      4.08006*(-1)
      1983                90.2032      4.1          4.02937
      1980                100.72       2.20635      3.94033*(+1)
      1979                118.503      3.37222      3.78977
      1977                127.432      4.5          3.71417
      1976                144.403      2.45         3.57048*(+1)
      1978                159.898      2.9          3.43929
      2006                282.75       3.2          2.39915
      2007                388.417      1.5          1.50451
      2007                388.417      1.5          1.50451

The s/w finds the year-to-year distribution of UFO sightings has an
uncanny similarity to the year-to-year distribution of Florida
sinkholes. The average number of sinkholes is around 4.8 but every 100
UFO sightings in the NUFORC database corresponds with a reduction of
around .85 sinkholes/mo.  More UFO sightings less sinkholes, less UFO
sightings more sinkholes.  The s/w is twice 99% sure there is a
connection. The T-test on the \beta finds it is too negative to be due
to chance.  And the Rank test finds the order of years by UFO
sightings is almost exactly the reverse of the order by sinkhole
numbers.  The R2 shows that about 53% of the year-to-year distribution
of new sinkholes matches the same wobbles in the year-to-year
distribution of UFO sightings.

So there's a prima facie connection. But it's hard to interpret why
more UFO activity across e.g. N Am (where 99% of NUFORC sightings come
from) is associated with fewer sinkholes.

But we can zoom in on the relationship by correlating just those UFO
sightings around Florida with new sinkholes.  If UFOs are associated
with sinkholes then Florida UFO sightings should be a "proximal cause"
and maybe have an even stronger relationship to sinkholes.

Here's the time-series regression for Florida sightings and Florida
sinkholes:

(Auto corr detected; estimated rho = 0.593218)
y = 0.146129*x + -1.51184
beta in 0.146129 +- 0.0602034   95% CI
alpha in -1.51184 +- 1.35459
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999851
r2 = 0.74521753
calculated Spearman corr = 0.601399
Critical Spearman = 0.504000 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected

Binned data:
Bin label       av Fla sightings/mo  av sinkholes/mo  model-est sinkholes/mo
      2006                19.3074      4.09531      1.30952*
      2007                21.9167      1.5          1.69081
      2000                23.9575      4.96926      1.98903*
      1998                28.297       4.77677      2.62316*
      1994                33.6127      4.52778      3.39993
      2003                38.66        5.13758      4.13749
      2005                45.6891      2.63636      5.16464*
      1988                48.325       8.11113      5.54982*
      2004                55.2286      3.45455      6.55863**
      1985                90.2067      12.5833      11.6699

Bingo! N Am UFO sightings were linked with ~53% of sinkholes but
Florida sightings are linked with 75% of sinkholes. A much stronger
link, as hoped for. And this time the 2 stat tests agree the link is
too positive to be due to chance. The T-test says less than 1 chance
in 100 it could be "a coincidence".  The Rank test says 5 chances in
100 it could just be luck.  Together we're talking maybe 1 chance in
1000 it's a coincidence.

It seems Florida UFO sightings are a good predictor of how many
sinkholes will be forming per month in the same year.

And a simple "mental model" of why works with the other nebulous data
we have from Siberia as well as Florida UFO folklore that mutters
about offshore UFO bases. Maybe the suckers are digging around under
Florida which sits on a spongy base of Swiss-cheese limestone.

  Geology of Florida
  The Floridian peninsula is a porous plateau of karst limestone sitting atop
  bedrock known as the Florida Platform. The emergent portion of the platform
  was created during the Eocene to Oligocene as the Gulf Trough filled with
  silts, clays, and sands. Flora and fauna began appearing during the Miocene.
  -- wiki

Sounds ideal for digging!

Too bad some of the sinkholes suck down people's homes and some
residents.

--
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