Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: ufos and sat launches

[uploaded 9 times; last 08/09/2024]

I was talking with someone and they convinced me it was time to try to
incorporate satellite movements in the models I was building to
try to track ufo activity around planet dirt and across the solar
system.

They pointed me at a sat tracking site and I managed to get a list of
how many launches for each month since that kinda thing began.  It
made interesting reading.  The list also includes the date of every
Starlink launch and that got me to looking at how many sightings in
the NUFORC data have been marked up as '((starlink))' and how that
compared with the actual launches.

So we have a few things to look at right away. Basically asking that
age-old question -- how many rocket launches are somehow mistaken for
UFOs?

But even more interestingly -- does UFO activity seem to dictate some
fraction of satellite launches?

This is pretty standard stuff -- just simple time series regression
with maybe a few extra checks to make sure the results are robust.
But you know me by now. I just cant leave it there. I have this little
sim program burning a hole in my back pocket so I have to also ask --
is there a group of asteroids somewhere out there in the solar system,
that if "something" is moving around out there at fairly high speed
and straight lines between these asteroids with sometimes a side-trip
to earth when it gets close to one of their hang-outs, can be find a
set of speed and probability params that make these simulated trips
line up statistically close to the pattern of satellite launches?

I let the AI programs do the boring stats and I went on to run the
script to look at the "nav model" type answer. And -- no surprises --
pretty much the same group of asteroids/comets I've come to know and
love being highly associated with all kinds of activity like
disappearances, monster sightings, ufo activity over the US and
Australia (my diary entries, anyway :) is *also* seemingly associated
with unusual spikes in satellite launch activity.

I checked back with the AI's and -- surprise -- they also found with
basic stats that not only does some fraction of sat launches seemingly
get mistaken for UFO's, but spikes (in particular) in UFO activity 
seems to kick off a new round of sat launches in the next month or 2.
Who knew?

First up, the pretty map that comes out of the "nav model" these days.
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/SAT-LAUNCHES.a-in-map.gif>.

The "map" shows that a big response is found with asteroids in the
range 0-7 AU from the Sun -- roughly out to somewhere between Jupiter
and Saturn -- and orbital inclinations 30-50 deg above the
ecliptic. That's the big yellow area. The rest of the solar system
shows as blue. Funny "bugs" *might* be coming from there to scare the
Pentagon into launching new spy sats to keep an eye on them, but the
matches against the sat launch data are only 1/2 as good as the yellow
region and might just be related to noise in the data.

Using the launch data broken down by month since the 1950s the AI
programs got these interesting results:

Code			R2		Beta		(75% conf interval +-)
accstarlinkL1-ufo2020y	0.57834655	-0.000774011	0.000324612 
accstarlink-ufo2020y	0.52858851	-0.000665221	0.00029572 
ufo2020L0-accstarlink	0.27627889	-0.665035	0.528675 
acc-ufo2006y		0.22477228	4.52098e-05	5.96433e-06 
ufo2020L1-starlink	0.22449050	-0.138829	0.126739 
accL1-ufo2006y		0.22164148	4.48447e-05	5.97537e-06 
starlinkL1-ufo2020y	0.21938024	-0.00377858	0.00350092 
starlink-ufo2020xy	0.16881272	0.149588	0.163033 
ufo2020L1-accstarlink	0.15599132	-0.416155	0.498044 
ufo2020L1-sstarlink	0.11850393	-0.0995941	0.133417 
annL1-ufo2020x		0.04137287	22.2572		13.166 
sannL1-ufo2006none	0.03895865	0.00697324	0.0024626 
annL1-ufo2006none	0.03573128	0.0067773	0.00250335 
ufo2020L0-sann		0.02527486	0.0309705	0.0239037 
ufo2020L1-sann		0.01768636	0.0268551	0.0248743 
accL1-ufo2020y		0.01750158	-5.3549e-05	4.93054e-05 
acc-ufo2020y		0.01489820	-4.81315e-05	4.79635e-05 
sannL1-ufo2020y		0.01073952	0.00029851	0.000352078 
sann-ufo2020none	0.00957553	0.130342	0.162451 
ufo2006L0-acc		0.00659998	11.5257		10.0449 
ann-ufo2020y		0.00352050	0.000174676	0.000360143 
ufo2006L1-acc		0.00337388	7.75287		9.47444 
ann-ufo2006xy		0.00315740	0.0371373	0.0468754 

The codes are the AI's idea of labelling something so a dumb human can
understand it. I must get around to fixing that one day.  The "L1"
codes mean the independent variable -- the "x" in the regression
problem "y = a + b*x" -- was lagged one month.  I.e. it shows how the
dependent variable -- the part after the "-" in the code -- varies
with changes in X from one month ago.

The "ann" data are the monthly sat launch numbers as recorded by the
website. There are typically 100s and a couple times there have been
1000s. You gotta think there must be something significant about that.

The code "sann" means the monthly sat launch numbers were
"sharpened". This is a normal image processing algorithm but adapted
to all kinds of numerical data. To sharpen an image you first blur the
image with a noise-maker or some other procedure and subtract that off
the original image. I.e. "sharp image" = image - "blurred image". You
"subtract off the blur".  For "sann" you can think of it as amplifying
the "spikes" in the month-to-month data.

The "acc" code is the running sum of launches. The "ufo2006" and
"ufo2020" are the NUFORC month-to-month UFO counts taken sometime in
late 2023 of the pre-2006 and post-2006 parts of the data -- before
they switched from telephone report-taking to webform reporting.
Finally, the "starlink" variables are analogous to the total launch
count but JUST for the entries marked as Starlink in the webpage I
scanned.  So "sstarlink" are "spikes in Starlink launches" (both +ve
and -ve spikes) and "accstarlink" is the running total of Starlink
launches.

So taking the "overall" sat picture first we can isolate these lines:

Code		T-test on Beta		Type of link
acc-ufo2006	P(beta>0) = 1.000000   STRONG POSITIVE
acc-ufo2020	P(beta<0) = 0.510529   no link
ann-ufo2006	P(beta<0) = 0.721692   WEAK ***NEGATIVE***
ann-ufo2020	P(beta<0) = 0.775011   WEAK ***NEGATIVE***
sann-ufo2006	P(beta<0) = 0.731631   WEAK ***NEGATIVE***
sann-ufo2020	P(beta>0) = 0.567958   no link

The only strong relationship links accumulated sat launches (and
therefore a proxy for the number of sats we know are in orbit) with
pre-2006 UFO sightings. As the acc number grew the number of ufo's
reported grew in statistically close parallel.  And we are quite
certain of that. But looking at the R2 column in the first table
shows only about 1/4 of UFO reports were affected.  I..e. is seems
plausible that 1/4 of UFO reports pre-2006 may have been related to
sat launches. But it turns out that does not apply to sightings after
2006 where there is no strong statistical link.  And even if we accept
"51% probable" means something then the link is ostensibly NEGATIVE.

Among the "weak links" where the T-test threatens to get above "80%
probable" (usually the lower limit of what is accepted as real in
sciences outside physics) the links are all -ve. On month-by-month
launching numbers compared with month-by-month UFO sightings it
seems more launches "weakly" result in FEWER UFO REPORTS and in
particular the month AFTER the launch. And the R2 from these links
also make interesting reading -- around 4%. IOW only about 4% of UFO
reports the month of or the month after seem to be affected by sat
launches or spikes (either up or down) in launches.

So we conclude from this there is an effect. We expected the effect.
But it is quite small.

Now lets look the OTHER WAY. Does UFO activity affect sat launches?

Code		T-test                 Result
ufo2006-acc	P(beta>0) = 0.999998   YES
ufo2006-ann	P(beta<0) = 0.951727   YES
ufo2006-sann	P(beta<0) = 0.609914   no link
ufo2020-acc	P(beta<0) = 0.888587   YES
ufo2020-ann	P(beta<0) = 0.710319   WEAKLY -ve
ufo2020-sann	P(beta>0) = 0.575352   no link

The strongest link comes with pre 2006 UFO sightings and accumulated
launches up to that time. Strongly +ve. It seems as UFO activity
increased the increase in accumulated launches ran fast and slow in
parallel beyond a statistical certainty. The same is true of just the
month-by-month data. Strong +ve link.  But the spike in sat launches
are seemingly NOT related to UFO activity in the month or the prev month.

But the situation may have changed post 2006. In the 21st cent UFO
sightings seem to run in parallel to both monthly sat launches and
accumulated sat launches but NEGATIVE. While new UFO activity in the
20th cent may have been associated with more launches, in the 21st
cent it seems to be going back the other way. There are many possible
explanations. But one I'll throw out there is "capacity constraints".
Maybe however is funding these sats has a fixed budget. The kind of
problem they didn't have so much in the 50s and 60s last cent.
Nowadays they can pay of a new satellite or they can pay for something
else that might be related -- e.g. jet aircraft on standby to
intercept things flying around in sensitive airspace.  If you say had
to fiddle military assignments to cover some new activity that popped
up around Virginia then you might not have quite so much in the budget
to launch a bird to take pictures of whatever.

Finally, looking just at Starlink launches:

accstarlinkL1-ufo2020y	0.57834655	-0.000774011	0.000324612 
accstarlink-ufo2020y	0.52858851	-0.000665221	0.00029572 
ufo2020L0-accstarlink	0.27627889	-0.665035	0.528675 
ufo2020L1-starlink	0.22449050	-0.138829	0.126739 
starlinkL1-ufo2020y	0.21938024	-0.00377858	0.00350092 
starlink-ufo2020xy	0.16881272	0.149588	0.163033 
ufo2020L1-accstarlink	0.15599132	-0.416155	0.498044 
ufo2020L1-sstarlink	0.11850393	-0.0995941	0.133417 

We see the "best model" links accumulated Starlink launches with a
downward movement in UFO sightings next month and less so this month.
This may be related to just witness behaviour. While it seems a "lot"
of people see Starlink trains and report a UFO, maybe the publicity
around the launches sometimes stops people from reporting any UFO for
fear that it is just a Starlink sat.

The next bestest models show there is a link between UFO activity and
Starlink launches. More UFO's seen this month or last month and fewer
launches. Maybe, like the general case that may be related to NASA
and USAF budgets, funding for Starlink is not entirely in the civilian
realm. In months with large UFO sightings spikes maybe (whoever) needs
to put the money to other uses and sat launches need to be delayed or
cut back.

--
Proof aliens exist? Federal agencies must now deliver all UFO reports for 
public disclosure - including classified material
Daily Mail, 17 May 2024 18:09Z
The move comes two months after the Pentagon's UFO office issued a 
controversial report to Congress, claiming it 'found no ...

  Congressman moves to declassify UFO docs: 'If you got nothing to hide, 
  release the files'
  Fox News, 16 May 2024
  A U.S. congressman is applying pressure to the U.S. government by forcing 
  the president to direct all federal agencies to release UFO-related files.

  New US law gives agencies strict instructions on releasing UFO 
  reports 
  MSN, 17 May 2024 19:11Z
  Federal agencies have until October 20th to deliver every document, audio 
  and video they have about UFOs to the US government for distribution to the...

  Retired US Colonel Predicts UFO Declassification by October 2030
  Medium, 11 May 2024 07:35Z
  Over the past weekend, the Sol Foundation, a newly formed non-profit
  organization, organized a conference at Stanford University.

There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and
yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics
or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous
interest, as well as potential national security significance.
-- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing
   on UAPs.

A vast array of our most sophisticated sensors, including space-based
platforms, have been utilized by different agencies, typically in
triplicate, to observe and accurately identify the out-of-this-world
nature, performance, and design of these anomalous machines, which are
then determined not to be of earthly origin.
-- Jonathan Grey, NASIC intel officer, Wright Patterson AFB, 06 Jun 2023

[Secret UFO recovery program blown open:]
I hope this revelation serves as an ontological shock sociologically
and provides a generally uniting issue for nations of the world to
re-assess their priorities.
-- David Grusch, 05 Jun 2023
[Talking to Les Kean et al for The Debrief, Grusch called for an end to
nearly a century of global UFO secrecy and warned that humanity needed to
prepare itself for "an unexpected, non-human intelligence contact scenario"].

The US government portrays itself as the world's preeminent
superpower, so to acknowledge that there are things in their
airspace, whatever they are, that are faster and more manoeuvrable
and run rings around fast jets doesn't play very well.
So there's the embarrassment factor, and maybe a little bit of
fear that either an adversary has made a quantum leap in
development, which has left the US in a poor second place, or, as
some believe, this really is extra terrestrial, in which case we're
not at the top of the food chain anymore.
-- Nick Pope, 02 May 2023

Las Vegas alien video's previously missed detail proves 'authenticity,'
expert says: 'You can't deny it'
Yahoo, 10 May 2024
A veteran crime scene recreation expert said the purported UFO crash landing
in Las Vegas last year is "authentic" and he believes he spotted two creatures.