From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: footprints in the data -- where UFOs come from and where they have been

[uploaded 34 times; last 26/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- there are many interesting links between planetary movements
  and UFO reports.
- some links suggests a good fraction of UFO reports are mis-identified
  planets. But this explanation can in no way explain planets that are
  not visible to the naked eye or even small telescopes.
- We see that one planet stands out as a possible "origin" or "gas station".
  Other planets may be "way-points" along the way to Earth.
- the extra-solar asteroid Oumuamua has left traces in UFO reports.
  Since it was not visible to most telescopes during its short holiday
  around the sun, we suspect the link may be of the "way-point" or
  "side trip" kind.

The Pentagon's UFO wrangler Dr Sean Kirkpatrick has just testified
before a Congressional public hearing today. Reports are still coming
in about what he actually said. The presentation included 2 new
videos, it seems.  Elsewhere, the ructions created by his appearing as
2nd author on a still-unpublished paper speculating about "alien
mother-ships" and similar things apparently is only expanding.  But
independent of what Pentagon officials say in public, some new
tinkering from my always-tinkering programs finds there are some
interesting footprints left in the data that may indicate where UFO's
come from as well as where they may have "just visiting".

A basic digital investigative tool is comparing different datasets.
The theory goes that any process that takes some kind of control input
leaves an imprint of that input in the output from the process.  In
math notation we might write y = f(x) where x is the input, y the output
and f(x) means the process applies some kind of transformation to the
input to produce the output. The basic theorem (Taylor series) dating
back to the start of the 18th century shows that if the input x is
composed of e.g. 2 parts -- let's call them a "signal" and "noise" --
then the output also contains some identifiable components that
correspond with versions of the same signal and noise. In
particular, the noise should appear in the output scaled by some
amount. This provides a way to track down which inputs a process used 
to produce its outputs.  In math notation we have f(s+n) ~= f(s) + a n.

In the case of interest to us here, the process is "UFOs" and the
output is e.g. "NUFORC sighting reports". We would like to know out
of all the possible variables and data out there in the universe,
which ones go to make up the UFO outputs. Can we find out where they
come from by analysing the noise inside the sightings reports?

As with all things "sciencey" the proof is in the pudding. The golden
rule is -- if you can correctly predict something from your
assumptions then you have captured something about how the universe
works. So if we can predict something about UFO reports from e.g. data
about the movements of planets and stars then we have determined
something about how UFO's work.

I have previously posted quite a few pieces along these lines and this
article is no different. But I will underscore some of the gritty
details I may have left to the Gentle Reader in the past.

It comes as no surprise that some people have long suspected an
association between UFO's and Mars because sightings were suspiciously
more numerous at the close approach of the Red Planet and declined
when Mars was on the opposite side of the sun.

Other researchers have found the movement of Saturn is also somehow
predictive of UFO reports. When Saturn is close -- that happens every
year as the earth moves around the sun and "laps" Saturn in its own
30y journey -- sightings seem to run at high levels, when Saturn is on
the other side of the sun they are lower, and when Saturn is
particularly close -- which happens approx every 30y -- sightings are
near their all-time highs.

But let us now put these historical findings on the back-burner and
just go through all the possibilities (well, some of the all) and see
which planets seem to predict the rise and fall of UFO sightings.

The JPL "Horizons" database provides fine-grained observations and
modelling of the motion of "many" (millions) of objects around the
solar system. It is used for NASA mission planning, among other
things, and supposedly can determine the position of anything bigger
than a house to an accuracy of meters for any time over a 30,000 year
time-span.  There are, of course, many exceptions because some
observations are not that accurate. But at least for the planets and
many asteroids this claim is generally true.

So we can day by day or second by second take the position of each
planet and compare that data against the day by day (or second by
second, if you like :) number of UFO sightings reported to the
NUFORC. If there is a strong statistical link we can argue "something"
about that planet seems to predict a bump in UFO sightings and maybe
-- given some experience -- we can figure out why that is -- what it
is about that planet that causes that link.

So let's look at some of the links. The following is the latest run
from comparing day by day planetary data against UFO sightings up to
the start of the month. The program that does this looks at each type
of planetary data, transforms it in various ways including adding time
delays from 0 to 30 days, and determines whether it is sufficiently
simular to the ups and downs of UFO sightings numbers to claim "very
unlikely" the similarity could happen just by luck.  It uses 2
different tests that make different assumptions about the data, it
tries to ensure the assumptions are justified, but the pair of tests
anyway complement each other and if they both say there is less than a
10% chance the planetary data and UFO sighting data could be so
similar just by luck, then we can say there is overall only around 1%
chance they could be so similar, and that's good enough to suspect
there is a connection between the 2 things.

The results in tabular form look like:

Planet	  Variable    Lag     Tran  R2          Beta          stddev(Beta)
mercury   DEC         28      y    0.10445124   0.00658965    0.000475388     
venus     DEC         28      y    0.14198437   0.00796099    0.000482215     
jupiter   DEC         28      y    0.28376693   0.0122058     0.000474527     
jupiter   rdot        25      y    0.26889264   0.427241      0.0172489       
jupiter   Tru_Anom    27      y    0.25931996   -0.0019142    7.93143e-05     
jupiter   R.A         20      y    0.22993616   -0.00169046   7.60063e-05     
jupiter   PAB-LON     24      y    0.19363160   -0.00159688   7.99742e-05     
jupiter   hEcl-Lon    18      y    0.18695223   -0.00156936   8.0363e-05      
saturn    hEcl-Lat    28      y    0.21162958   0.159068      0.00758976      
saturn    PAB-LAT     28      y    0.20544994   0.155916      0.00757817      
saturn    deldot      28      y    0.10444192   0.00551058    0.00039632      
uranus    R.A         28      xy   0.16739716   -0.0832143    0.00458265      
uranus    PAB-LON     27      xy   0.16591603   -0.0897156    0.00497837      
uranus    S-O-T       0       y    0.15411047   0.00261708    0.0001513       
uranus    deldot      28      y    0.14420793   -0.0064427    0.000385217     
uranus    hEcl-Lon    28      xy   0.13793275   -0.0795606    0.00489987      
neptune   delta       4       xy   0.20809856   -6.84488      0.328976        
neptune   APmag       5       y    0.20803013   -3.14097      0.150822        
neptune   rdot        28      y    0.19810622   -17.0433      0.844623        
neptune   S-O-T       8       y    0.19587785   0.00300191    0.000149954     
neptune   Tru_Anom    0       xy   0.14682867   -2.04085      0.120425        
pluto     deldot      0       y    0.16442354   0.00682927    0.000379513     
pluto     S-O-T       28      y    0.15204193   0.0026101     0.000151883     
2017+U1   phi         21      xy   0.05021251   0.288282      0.0456025       
2017+U1   S-O-T       1       xy   0.04072697   0.341422      0.0599756       

These are the results that are found to be statistically significant
according to the 2 tests (a T-test on Beta -- ensuring it would be 90%
or more unlikely that Beta is actually 0; and a Spearman rank test
that shows it's 90% or more unlikely the order of the values in the
planet data could be so similar to the order of the UFO sightings
could happen just by luck). The planets included all the major planets,
pluto, the moon and the "first interstellar asteroid" discovered --
'Oumuamua aka 2017 U1.

Some astronomers have speculated that Oumuamua might be an interstellar
probe of some kind because it behaved in some unusual ways as it
approach the sun, changing direction and speed slightly in ways that
seemed to defy explanation. Other astronomers say there is a simple
explanation for the velocity changes -- evaporation of water and
hydrogen from the asteroid acted like weak rocket motors just as
similar things affect the motion of other well-observed comets that
approach the sun every year. But the details are in scientific
dispute. What is not in dispute is the asteroid did not originate
within the solar system nor from the cloud of comets that surround the
solar system.  Its speed is too high for Oumuamua to have ever been
near the sun for very long. It is destined, after some expected and
some unexpected course corrections, to leave the solar system in a
matter of years -- it passed Neptune headed toward interstellar space
in 2022.

While a dozen different variables for each planet were tested, only a
handful were found to be involved in significant matches.  These
include the Declination (the angle above or below the plane of the
Earth orbit around the sun -- the ecliptic), the Right Ascension (RA)
(the angle from a reference point across the sky from E to W), the
solar elongation (SOT) (the angle between the planet and the sun as
seen from the earth), the phase angle (phi) (the angle between earth
and the sun as seen from the planet), the anomaly (TruAnom) (the angle
between the planet and its closest approach to the sun as seen from
the sun), the distance between earth and the planet (delta), the
distance between the sun and the planet (r), the rate-of-change of
delta and r (deldot and rdot), the heliocentric latitude and longitude
(the angle between reference points and the position of the planet in
the vertical and horizontal directions with reference to the ecliptic
as seen from the sun), the apparent brightness (APmag) of the planet
due to light from the sun reflected by the planet and seen on earth,
and the phase bisector latitude and longitude (PAB-LAT, PAB-LON) --
the direction of a line exactly between the sun and the earth as seen
from the planet.

The program uses the daily values of each of these variables and tries
to find the best match (if it can) against NUFORC day by day sighting
reports. To make the match as good as it can the program tries to
"lag" the planet data from 0 up to 30 days, and it also tries various
transformations of the planet and UFO data (basically, taking logs of
each -- giving a total of 4 possible ways of comparing the data).  In
total that's 4*31 = 124 different ways it has of matching a particular
planet variable with the UFO sightings data.

The program does all the relevant calculations and keeps only the
"best match" signified by the R2 value. The R2 is the so-called
"explanation power" of the match. It gives the fraction of the
variation in the daily UFO sightings that is matched or predicted by
the variation in the daily planet data under consideration. E.g. we
see the best model for the declination of Jupiter matches 28% of the
ups and downs of daily UFO sightings if it is lagged 28 days and logs
are taken of the sightings numbers. The program also prints the
strength of the association between the planet data and sightings data
-- the Beta -- along with an estimate of the error bounds for Beta.  Due
to noise in the data the exact value for Beta can't be determined, but
an 80%-likely range can be calculated using certain assumptions about
the data (that the program also checks as well as it can).  So for the
declination of Jupiter it finds for each 1 deg of declination UFO
sightings increase by about 1.2% (since the log of UFO sightings we
taken we mentally use the old approximation exp(x) ~= 1+x for small x;
so a beta of .012 means a change in declination of 1 degree means the
UFO sightings are multiplied by exp(.012) i.e. (1+.012) i.e. an
increase of 1.2%; this is "basic mental arithmetic" to a
mathematician).

So. The patterns. Do we see any patterns in these results?

Well. Of course. We see some planets have very (apparently) strong
connections with their position in the sky -- R.A. and Dec -- and how
strongly they seem to influence UFO sightings.  What is going on
there?

The clue to that is -- which planets have this link? They seem to
be the "brighter planets". And we immediately suspect we know what is
going on. When the declination of a planet increases it is "higher in
the sky" in the N Hem. It is closer to the Pole Star and -- we assume
-- more easily visible to people that are wandering around their back
yards at night looking at the sky and trying to figure out what it all
means. :) IOW, we can assume these DEC links are associated with
people mistaking Venus, Saturn and Jupiter for some kind of unusual
object.  The R2 shows what fraction of UFO sightings may be the result
of such errors.  Amazingly, the program estimates around 28% of UFO
reports are related to people mistaking Jupiter for an alien
spaceship. :) For each 1 deg higher in the sky around 1.2% more people
report it acting suspiciously!

The link with R.A. is not so clear-cut. Only Jupiter and Uranus have
this link. Jupiter is easily visible. Uranus is visible but nowhere
near as bright. Jupiter also has this declination link meaning it is
LIKELY to be confused with a UFO by a lot of people. But Uranus does
not.  So it seems the pattern is trying to tell us that something
about the relative position of earth and those planets, particularly
Uranus, has "something to do with" UFO sightings. Some alignments
favour more sightings; some reduce sightings. This might make us
suspect if UFO's originate at Jupiter or Uranus then certain points in
the positions of earth and the planet favour an interplanetary trip,
and others don't.

Another variable that *may* be related to simple visual confusion on
the part of witnesses is the SOT -- the elongation. This is the angle
between the planet and the sun. If some planet has a small elongation
then it is effectively invisible -- it is too close to the sun during
the day to even be visible on earth. Most astronomers say 20 deg or
less makes any planet invisible to the unaided eye.  And we see the
Beta for the 3 SOT links are all +ve. I.e. the UFO sightings increase
with higher elongation. They decline when the objects are close to the
sun. It must be a case of confusion, again.  But that can't be so in
all cases. Neptune, e.g., was never seen by Greek or Roman scholars --
it is too dim. And Oumuamua is definitely not visible to the naked eye
and was only visible to powerful telescopes for a few years of the 21st
cent.  So there has to be -- at least in some cases -- an alternative
explanation.  And the simple version is -- if a UFO originates some
other place and travels to earth in a straight line WATCH OUT FOR THE
SUN GETTING IN THE WAY. I.e. if your spacecraft cant stand a close
encounter with the sun and you absolutely have to be on earth at a
certain time then plan your straight-line journey for a time when the
elongation is bigger than a few degrees.

A similar argument applies to the various PAB (incl the one "phi")
links. This is a direction from the planet going between the earth and
the sun. We can imagine it could have "something" to do with plotting
a course from some planet to earth. Depending on where this direction
points the amount of energy you need can be greater or less. Even a
super spaceship probably has running costs and it's possible alien
jellyfish pilots have to watch their pennies just like earthlings. So
a trip to earth is "best" undertaken when the relative positions of
the sun and the earth are jusssst right.

The "deldot" links are more interesting. This is the speed of the
planet relative to the earth in km per sec. If the value is +ve then
the planet is moving away from the earth; -ve means toward the earth.
2 of the links in the table are +ve and 1 -ve. For Saturn and Uranus
UFO sightings tend to increase when the planet is moving away from the
earth. This sounds strange. If a planet is going away then surely it
can't mean anything is coming from there *to* earth? But, no, it's not
that simple. Depending on exactly how a trip happens, starting out on
the journey may well be more efficient (pennies!) at a time when the
planet is moving away from the earth to ensure the earth is at the
point your trip is moving toward when you get there.  The same kind
of thing also applies to the -ve case. Just because UFO sightings
increase 28 days after Uranus starts to move toward earth doesn't
necessarily mean Uranus is the origin of (any) UFOs.  But just the
fact there are these links hints at the possibility.  Especially in
light of the other links.

Finally, the delta link. Delta is the distance between earth and the
planet on a given day in AU. There is only the one found by the
program.  Alarm bells should be sounding about now. :) It seems there
is only one planet that, when it is closer to Earth there is an
increase in UFO sightings and when it is further away there are
fewer. Only 1. If you were a betting jellyfish I think I know where
you would lay your shells down on there being some kind of UFO truck
stop somewhere there-abouts. The distance between Earth and Neptune is
re-enforced by it also having an APmag link. Magnitudes increase when
things are DIM.  Adding +1 to a magnitude means the star or planet is
1/2 as bright.  And SHOCK Neptune has a -ve Beta related to its
APmag. When it gets brighter the APmag is less and the -ve Beta means
there are more UFO sightings.  This is just what you might expect if
the distance between Earth and Neptune matters. We have it two ways now.

So we have some evidence that some UFO sightings are "mistakes".  We
have some evidence that maybe the position of some planets makes some
difference to how "they" arrive on Earth from (somewhere).  And we
have some hint that a certain someplace is the somewhere.  (And we
have prev seen some data that shows as the Voyager probe approached
some somewhere in summer 1989 there was a "reaction" in the sightings
data before and after approx that time).

But what is this with Oumuamua? Admittedly I just added that in to see
"what if". We see similar patterns with the other 1000s of asteroids I
have actually tried. Many are similar to the pattern for Oumuamua.
Some are much different. Some show nothing significant at all.

It seems distance between Oumuamua and Earth did not affect UFO reports
to any significant extent. But for some reason the angle between
Oumuamua and the sun as seen from the Earth, and the angle between
Earth and the sun as seen from Oumuamua -- these things seemed to make
a difference to UFO sightings. About 5% of sightings seem to have been
affected by contemporary chances in these angles.  It seems Our Pals
may have buzzed over to Oumuamua to check it out.  If something
landed in my back yard I would probably go over to look at
it. (Depends on how big, many tentacles and whether it has lots of
moving spider mouth parts).

But -- as I mentioned -- lots of asteroids seem to have similar
patterns that link significantly to UFO reports. The pattern may
relate to how certain journeys happen or how certain spaceship drives
work.  It may be that asteroids or any appropriate object along the
way are a kind of fuel for "them". Perhaps as well as pushing against
the solar wind with magnetic fields (a possible propulsion -- known as
"plasma sail" -- that roughly matches what the bulk of the data to
date is showing) perhaps they can use their magnetic fields or tractor
beams to push against asteroids and get a boost that way.  As other
data we've seen indicates, a chunk of UFO sightings on earth seem to
match quite well against the assumption that trips from certain
planets are straight lines between there and Earth and that the avg
speed of those trips is a respectable but not FTL ~1 AU per day.

Happy Hearings Day. (And Please Don't Expect Anything).

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

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Section 8. Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) Reports
Persons wanting to report UFO/unexplained phenomena activity
should contact a ... data collection center, such as the National UFO
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