Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and cattle mutilations hint at UFO society

[uploaded 73 times; last 31/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We look at the links between UFO activity and cattle mutilations
  briefly documented in an FBI report on the subject.
- We also recall a "mass animal deaths" database, that includes data
  on dead cattle around the world, and compare that again against UFO
  sightings data.
- It seems overall UFO sightings are highly correlated with both
  datasets. But the correlation shows as both +ve and -ve depending on
  which type of UFO is being examined.
- It seems the greatest cattle mutilation activity is associated with
  our old friends the Triangles and Spheres.  But the R2's show only a
  small minority of these types might be part of the activity. The
  majority may be either unrelated or trying to suppress the
  activity of the first group.
- From the complete data analysis it looks like UFO types "Cone" and
  "Cross" (and maybe only certain types thereof -- we didn't examine
  specifically dark and light-colored objects which may have
  fundamentally different outlooks on everything) are very
  significantly involved suppressing cattle mutilation activity.
- We recall also that "Cone" types seem to be unimpressed by the
  presence of US military bases, while other types seem to know where
  esp AFB are located and tend to shy away in patterns that suggest
  some types are worried about fighter intercept and some are more
  concerned with ground to air missiles. "Cones" don't care.  Are they
  "UFO cops" and the guys flying old busted-ass black triangles are
  akin to crooks^h^h^hindependent businessmen?


We've looked at the apparent interactions between UFO's and animals
before. A previous post looked at the patterns of correlations between
N Am sightings and "mass animal deaths" around the world over approx
the past 20 y finding -- yes -- there was some kind of causal link in
parts of the data.

That mass death dataset -- maintained by a Christian "end of the
world" group from newspaper clippings -- only hinted at the mysterious
phenomenon of animal mutilations, but now we'll dive a little deeper
using one of the few datasets I've managed to find so far.

There have reportedly been "thousands" of cases were mostly cattle
across the US have been discovered freshly dead and horribly
mutilated, as if crude dissections had been carried out.  Typically the
scene of the crime is relatively pristine -- no footprints or tyre
tracks. And typically the animals have been killed and lost most of
their blood without any sign how that was done or where the blood went.

The FBI was called in at one point and conducted a -- I'm tempted to
say -- lack luster investigation. A report was produced at some point
mostly consisting of letters from irate Senators demanding something
be done and various newspaper clipping where reporters had managed to
produce more data than the FBI ever seemed to.

See e.g.
<https://vault.fbi.gov/Animal%20Mutilation/Animal%20Mutilation%20Part%204%20of%205/at_download/file>
(there are 6 parts to the report) where at least a list of summary
local police reports are listed that give dates and details of a
couple dozens cases in the 1970s.

Unfortunately the FBI gave up on the investigation not the least
reason being they had no authority to investigate the events.

I have yet to find any summary data from the USDA on "mystery animal
deaths" and until I do the above report will have to do.

The basic data I've extracted is thus:

Date		Number of cases
(yyyyddd)
1975240		1
1975277		1
1975281		1
1975282		1
1975284		2
1975288		1
1975294		1
1975297		1
1975302		1
1975308		1
1975312		1
1975315		1
1975316		1
1975353		1
1975360		1
1976042		1
1976113		1
1976136		1
1976179		1
1976181		1
1976192		1
1976234		1
1976243		1
1976249		1
1978127		1

It seems difficult to believe just these numbers can tell us anything.
But data science to the rescue!

Dealing with very small and noisy datasets is a reasonably
well-researched area and there are tools to match up a bunch of dates
against other datasets.

Naturally, we'll be comparing the above with what UFO sightings were
doing in the 1970s and see if there is some good non-chance alignment
of UFO sightings of whatever type and these dates when cattle were
supposedly killed somewhere in the US SW.

The first run will try to use overall UFO sightings (NUFORC as usual)
to create a predictive model for the above dates and -- hopefully --
maybe predicting that "2" in late 1975.

The summary output looks like:

Log transform enabled.
3sigma outliers removed.
Missing values assigned average values.
Model		Lag		R2
All NUFORC	5d		0.20940777
+ve \beta	10d		0.12895715

The s/w finds there is a significant correlation between UFO sightings
and the dates of animal mutilations. Using the daily sightings from
NUFORC it found a delay of 5 days best matched against the dates and
number-of-cases in the FBI report. But, interestingly, the \beta was
-ve. IOW the less UFO sightings resulted, 5 days later, in more cattle
mutilation reports.

The algorithm is quite sure there is a statistical link. It uses (as
per usual) 2 different methods to decide whether there is less than a
10% prob the pattern match could be just due to lucky coincidences in
the dataset. So, overall, it is about 99% sure there is a link between
UFO sightings and cattle mutilations.

But another little wrinkle -- it found at some lags the \beta was +ve
(more UFO's in prev days led to more mutilations) and some where it
was -ve (more UFO sightings led to less mutilations some days later).

The puzzle is partly solved by breaking UFO sightings down by type.
NUFORC lists sightings by (mostly) shape -- triangle, sphere, etc.
Running the same s/w on each type gives us a longer list:

UFO type	Lag		R2		Sign of \beta
		(d)
Fireball	1		0.16375126	-ve
Rectangle	6		0.12710200	-ve
Egg		10		0.12604042	+
Triangle	0		0.12604042	+
Cigar		3		0.10026736	-ve
Oval		6		0.09980681	-ve
Unknown		6		0.07813262	+
Circle		10		0.06359584	-ve
Other		9		0.05117706	-ve
Disk		4		0.04939837	-ve
Sphere		0		0.04634788	+
Formation	6		0.03563211	-ve
Changing	6		0.03498978	+
Cylinder	9		0.02890953	+


So it turns out some UFO types may be associated with more mutilations
but some may be associated with fewer mutilations.

What is going on?

One possible resolution -- we are starting to see a hint of a social
structure among the "UFO people". It seems some of the guys driving
Triangles may be getting up to mischief some other guys are not
totally in favor of. In data below we might suspect that some UFO
types may in fact be "police" or "military" vehicles.

We've had hints of all this in previous posts. UFO's are not a uniform
mass. There are historical reports of UFO blasting away at each other
and in the relatively distant past even going to war against each
other. Big surprise we might see parts of the data showing some
behaviour and other parts of the data showing the opposite behavior. We
can even judge from some of the R2's that the overall behaviour on
cattle mutilations is "against" but some minority seems to be "in favor".

Part of the folklore, too, suggest some kinds of UFO's have been "very
interested" in human agriculture and tend to set down in orchards or
fields and take samples and disappear.  It seems animal mutilations
may be part of this. Just poking around trying to find something out.
If nothing else some folks may be trying to expand their diet from
whatever they consume now -- certain phytoplankton from what the data
we've seen up till now seems to suggest governs a lot of the global
patterns of activity.

Finally, we might like to line up results from this FBI data from the
1970s and "mass animal deaths" of just "cattle" and "cows" from the
period 2000-present from the Christian group's database. Do we get
similar results?

Here are the 2 sets of results split up into +ve betas (more UFO
sightings leads to more cattle deaths) and -ve betas (more sightings
lead to fewer cattle deaths):

positive \beta's:
SHAPE                   MASS      FBI       AVG
Egg                   n/a         0.1260    0.1260
All                     0.0077    0.1290    0.0683
Triangle                0.0099    0.1260    0.0679
Unknown                 0.0157    0.0781    0.0469
Circle                  0.0227    0.0636    0.0432
Rectangle               0.0017    0.0673    0.0345
Sphere                  0.0207    0.0463    0.0335
Changing                0.0114    0.0350    0.0232
Other                   0.0078    0.0380    0.0229
Disk                    0.0013    0.0425    0.0219
Cigar                   0.0053    0.0350    0.0202
Cylinder                0.0066    0.0289    0.0178
Fireball                0.0248    0.0007    0.0128
Light                   0.0122  n/a         0.0122
Oval                    0.0104  n/a         0.0104
Formation               0.0101  n/a         0.0101
Flash                   0.0020  n/a         0.0020
Diamond                 0.0001  n/a         0.0001
mass = MASS-ANIMAL-DEATHS
fbi = SUSP/v2/o3y

negative \betas:
SHAPE                   MASS      FBI       AVG
Cone                    0.9526  n/a         0.9526
Cross                   0.9522  n/a         0.9522
Egg                     0.1313  n/a         0.1313
All                     0.0109    0.2094    0.1102
Teardrop                0.0924  n/a         0.0924
Fireball                0.0185    0.1638    0.0911
Rectangle               0.0364    0.1271    0.0818
Chevron                 0.0615  n/a         0.0615
Cigar                   0.0108    0.1003    0.0555
Oval                    0.0103    0.0998    0.0551
Disk                    0.0356    0.0494    0.0425
Flash                   0.0385  n/a         0.0385
Diamond                 0.0372  n/a         0.0372
Triangle                0.0239    0.0494    0.0367
Other                   0.0198    0.0512    0.0355
Circle                  0.0020    0.0615    0.0318
Cylinder                0.0316  n/a         0.0316
Formation               0.0106    0.0356    0.0231
Changing                0.0099  n/a         0.0099
Unknown                 0.0096  n/a         0.0096
Light                   0.0081  n/a         0.0081
Sphere                  0.0007  n/a         0.0007


We can see, firstly, the 2 cols/periods have different types of
objects. Some are not noted in the NUFORC database before the big web
report form change in ~March 2006. And some others seem to have gone
out of favor since 2006.

Secondly, the correspondence is not very close in deciding which UFO
types are more related to cattle mutilations/deaths.  The average R2
of the 2 sets of data is given in the final column but we can see the
other 2 columns of R2's are not in the same order.  In some cases it
isn't even close.

We are left with the overall impression that there *is* a strong
connection between UFO activity and (some) cattle deaths/mutilations
in the US and around the world. But it seems the "UFO community" is of
2 quite different minds. Some UFO types are involved "somewhat" in the
+ve link leading to more cattle deaths; some are involved in a -ve
link that seems to be preventing cattle deaths.

If we did a similar study investigating bank robberies we might find a
very similar pattern. Various activities in some suburbs might seem
"mostly" +ve related to bank robberies around the country.  The same
activities in other suburbs might be "mostly" -ve related to bank
robberies. And there would be certain identifiable groups in all areas
that went against the major regional association.

Finally, I've particularly intrigued by the YUGE R2 shown on the
"Cone" and "Cross" UFO types. It seems sightings of these types of
aircraft is very very significantly related to fewer cattle deaths in
the days afterward.

We recall from a prev post that "Cone" types at least show a very
interesting pattern vis a vis US military bases.  While almost all
other types seem to show a decline in sighting density moving toward
clusters of military bases (and esp UFAF bases), the "Cone" types seem
to show total disregard for the presence of bases. We speculated at
the time this might be either being only threatened by something that
travels very fast between a military base and the aircraft --
e.g. light; IOW being seen or spotted on radar; or it might be they
are so heavily armored or have other countermeasures they are not
worried about being hit by a ground-to-air missile.

It seems the latter might be the case. They seem associated with
"depressing" cattle mutilating activity and are not fussed about being
hit by ground fire. What does that remind you of?  Are they the cops
or the military of Our Friends (TM; not necessarily our friends)? 
Do they keep the bad guys in line? Are we seeing some pattern of a UFO
society that is apart from super technology a little like our own and
not an often-imagined perfect society of an advanced "alien"
civilization (TM; probably not all that alien -- they may be eating
earth plankton after all)?

--
Upcoming events:
08 Apr 2012	NOAA $bn disasters Q1 release

Mars Still Has Oceans Of Water Buried Beneath Surface, Study Finds
India Times, 21 Mar 2021
A new NASA-backed study has found that the Red Planet still has much of its
water--and that it may be hiding a large amount of it underground.

Russian Hacker Pleads Guilty To Offering $1M Bitcoin Bribe To Tesla Employee
Benzinga, 22 Mar 2021 04:22Z
Thousands of traders just like you are using Benzinga Options to learn the
options trading formula that Nic Chahine uses to earn a full-time living.

Congo-Brazzaville: Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas dies from Covid on poll day
BBC News, 22 Mar 2021 09:21Z
The main opposition presidential candidate in Congo-Brazzaville had said he
was "fighting death".

Raspberry Pi Detects Unseen Cosmic Rays from Space
Tom's Hardware, 21 Mar 2021 23:20Z
CosmicPi is an open-source application used to detect cosmic rays that's
designed to run on a Raspberry Pi.

Russian jets hit targets near Syria's Turkish border
ABC News, 22 Mar 2021 03:08Z
Russian jets hit several towns and cities in north-western Syria near the
Turkish border, while Syrian army artillery kills seven civilians and
injures 14 medics in an attack on a hospital, witnesses and rebel sources say.

Lifesavers rescue cow that was swept onto beach during floods
ABC/7.30, 22 Mar 2021 06:02Z
A calf was "distressed and exhausted" when lifesavers reached it in
the water, but with the help of locals and a spinal board they managed
to get it to safety.
[Reports say another 6m of rain fell in many areas of NSW again today
-- almost 2y worth in at least one spot -- with the BoM saying more is
on the way until at least Wed].

'Potentially hazardous' asteroid to fly by Earth on March 21, but no threat
of collision, NASA says
KHON2 News, 22 Mar 2021 05:54Z

New Effort To Clean Up Space Junk Prepares To Launch
NPR, 22 Mar 2021 06:35Z
A demonstration mission to test an idea to clean up space debris is
scheduled to launch early Monday morning from a launch site in Kazakhstan.
Known as ...

Saudi Aramco to prioritise energy supply to China for half a century
ABC News, 21 Mar 2021 at 11:44pm
Saudi Arabia remains the largest supplier of oil to China, which has made
ambitious pledges on climate change.

American kids mark a staggering coronavirus milestone: One year since they
set foot in a classroom
ABC News, 21 Mar 2021 19:55Z
A year without running around at recess. A year without sharing paintbrushes
in art class. A year without hugging, playing, fighting and whispering with
friends. These are the children who spent America's coronavirus outbreak
indoors.

'Provocative action': Hundreds of Chinese vessels in South China Sea alarms
Philippines
ABC News, 21 Mar 2021 19:51Z
The Philippines urges China to recall more than 200 Chinese boats spotted at
a reef in the South China Sea, saying the presence violates maritime rights.