Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and other paranormal events (1/n)

[uploaded 34 times; last 17/09/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Many paranormal researchers believe different phenomena are related.
  Some suggest they are "all the same thing".
- We look at spontaneous human combustion here and determine whether
  the pattern of cases over time is statistically related to any other
  items in a huge database (30,000 items) of timeseries.
- Of the 1000s of possibilities only 27 are found to link with SHC to
  a statistical certainty of better than 99%.
- The top10 of the possibilities include a grab-bag of UFO-relevant
  items including certain planetary positions, UFO sightings reported
  in certain US states, and atm levels of N2O which we've previously
  found explains the distribution of UFO sightings between the N and S
  hemisphere on a "seasonal" basis -- the blooming of certain phytoplankton.


Ufologists and paranormal researchers have long argued many different
kinds of unusual events appear to be connected.

Just as principles of data science can be used to search for patterns
in UFO sightings and other collected data, it can be used to establish
to some degree of certainty whether or not 2 ostensibly different
phenomena are connected and, if so, which way the causation likely goes.

As I've outlined previously, causation maybe a slippery philosophical
topic but patterns in the data can establish whether or not there is a
case to be made that X causes Y. A basic principle of forensic science
says that a suspect leaves evidence on a crime scene and the crime
scene leaves evidence on the suspect. And we can use numerical methods
and statistics to establish whether a "fingerprint" of one dataset
also appears in another dataset (and vv).  By "fingerprint" we mean,
essentially, the "noise" in the data.  If some random event results in
an X value that is far above normal and we also see an unusual value
in a Y at a corresponding time we have some evidence the 2 are
connected. If that patterns appears to repeat arbitrarily often then
we know we're onto something. :)

In this post we'll just look at one phenomena -- Spontaneous Human
Combustion -- that has oftentimes been dismissed as "anything else"
but has links to UFO sightings and planetary movements that seem hard
to explain as an old lady (majority case) falling into a drunken
stupor and setting herself alight with a cigarette.

The SHC dataset I will use here is available at
<http://www.anomalyinfo.com>.  As usual, I'm not interested in all the
little case details of who and when and where but just the dates. 
With even approximate dates for each event we can line them up with
any other time series available via the web and decide "how well"
that other dataset can explain the phenomenon in question.

The breakdown of SHC cases averaged over 6y periods to make it small
enough to include here looks like:

Period	Avg number of cases per month
(6y)
1902	0.15625
1908	0.126389
1914	0.1125
1920	0.1
1926	0.125
1932	0.1
1938	0.15
1944	0.1125
1950	0.2125
1956	0.2
1962	0.1375
1968	0.1
1974	0.240278
1980	0.279167
1986	0.175
1992	0.1125
1998	0.1
2004	0.1125
2010	0.151389
2016	0.1375

We can run this data against a list of "suspects" including various
weather datasets, planetary positions, and various kinds of UFO
activity and determine which data "looks most like" the SHC timeseries
to a statistical certainty.

As for many other posts in this series I use 2 different statistical
tests to ensure the "statistical certainty" is rather high.  At least
1 chance in 100, probably 1 chance in 1000, and maybe up to 1 chance
in 10,000 in some individual cases where both tests concur and are
essentially statistically independent.

The top10 results look like:

Suspect		R2		Beta		90% CI (+-)
ufo-VT2006	0.20567624	3.63836		2.3917 
jupiter-Dec	0.20503646	-0.170423	0.0803726 
jupiter-latecl	0.14721410	2.75344		1.58724 
ufo-AL2006	0.12008074	0.899754	0.602826 
n2o		0.10869588	-0.147033	0.143839 
n2oavglng	0.10757485	-0.0494458	0.0486537 
ufo-MT2006	0.10520174	-3.35935	3.21154 
n2oavglatnhem	0.09951760	-0.338053	0.347399 
venus-latecl	0.09035720	-0.992837	0.746614 
pluto-latecl	0.08025743	0.199595	0.160142 

Out of 1000s of possibilities only 27 passed both statistical tests.
The above are the top10 of that list.

The 2nd column is the "explanation power" of a statistical model that
maps the suspect onto the list of SHC cases.  The best model -- first
in the list, above -- indicated around 20% of month to month variation
in the number of SHC events matched to a high certainty against the
month to month variation in UFO sightings in Vermont. (The "2006" is
an artifact from the relevant UFO sighting source -- the NUFORC
database. The group created a web report form in 2006 after which
sightings were not only 10x more numerous than earlier telephone
reporting, but changed character in a number of hard-to-handle ways).

We see other UFO sighting types -- sightings in Alabama and Montana --
also explain a reasonable percentage of SHC cases.

We see 2 types of UFO sightings is +ve related to SHC cases. And one
is -ve related. In some cases is seems the more UFO's seen *here* the
more SHC cases seen *there* in the same month.  The -ve case doesn't
necessarily clear that suspect. If burglary suspects are seen partying
in a nearby town several times when a series of break-ins happen in
his town, a sheriff still might suspect a connection. (In the same way
a +ve beta doesn't mean anyone is "guilty", either :).

It's interesting no particular UFO characteristics show up in the
table. It doesn't seem UFO's of a particular shape, color or direction
of motion align with SHC cases. Just UFO's seen in certain states
in months between 1950 and 2006.

No weather events seem to explain SHC cases. It might have been cold
weather forced victims inside where they turned on a heater, fell
asleep, and burned themselves to death. But that is not shown by the data.

While it was included in the search the position of the sun or moon
also did not align with SHC. Seasonality apparently doesn't explain
anything significant about the timing of cases from the database.

But what does turn up is the atm level of "laughing gas" (N2O).  With
N2O increasing in the atm due to over-use of nitrogen fertilizers the
relevant line in the table shows SHC cases are declining roughly in
line with the increase in N2O (currently around 330 ppb -- a tiny
amount).  Another N2O-related dataseries that takes the measurements
at stations around the world and creates an "weighted average
longitude" for emissions of the gas -- that also explains the
distributions of SHC cases. Somehow "location" of N2O emissions
(e.g. farming) influences the frequency of the events.

However, we've seen N2O before. Beside human-produced gas from
nitrogen fertiliser, N2O is also produced seasonally by ocean
plankton.  The patten of production is complicated because they are 3
growing seasons in the N Hem and another 3 in the S Hem. We've seen
before the pattern seems to suggests UFO sightings move between the N
and S hemisphere depending where most of certain plankton seems to be
growing at a particular time of the year.

It is therefore quite suggestive when N2O turns up in relation to
other phenomena.

Finally, we also see the motions of some planets seem to also explain
a chunk of SHC cases. The most strongly-connected found here is the
position of Jupiter. Both the top items related to Jupiter link the
"latitude" of Jupiter in the sky with SHC. The "Dec" (declination)
item suggests the higher the angle of Jupiter above the celestial equator 
the lower the number of month SHC cases. Somehow SHC is most common when 
Jupiter is over the equator.

The other item suggests Jupiter's position above or below the ecliptic
-- the plane defined by the orbit of the earth around the sun (rather
than its axial tilt as with declination) -- shows the higher Jupiter is
above the ecliptic the more common SHC cases are and the lower below
the ecliptic the less common.

A similar relationship is seen between the position of Venus and
Pluto. Venus has the opposite sign to Jupiter while Pluto has the same sign.

The patterns suggest while perhaps most SHC cases are related to
"other (mundane) reasons", a big chunk is strongly related to factors
related to UFO activity and possible planetary origins of same.

Later we shall look at a more detailed analysis using the
"fingerprint" concept and a much longer list of suspects that is
likely again to be winnowed down to a shortlist related to UFO
activity. Also in he pipe is a similar analysis for other related
phenomena including cryptid sightings, poltergeists and hauntings.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

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