Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: ufo weather: clouds in my region predict (US) ufo activity

[uploaded 25 times; last 17/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We recall that UFO sightings have a strong stat pattern linking it to
  day of the week. The pattern is also seen in MADAR sightings so is
  not simply an effect of observer behaviour. We have prev noted that
  UFO spatial distributions suggest some UFO avoid AFB and area patrols.
  Light aircraft seem to do the patrols and "escorting"/"harassing" in
  Australia rather than military craft as in some other countries.
  Whether noisy civil aircraft trying to chase off LITS is more or
  less obvious than a couple of fighter jets is arguable.
- In my local region clouds over the past several months have changed
  their daily pattern to seemingly mimic UFO sightings.  Max clouds
  seem to be roll in at times of expected highest UFO activity.  At
  the same time the behaviour of local "patrol aircraft" has changed
  too. In the past patrol activity seemed to peak when the maximum
  number of unusual objects in the night sky were visible. Over the
  past few months patrols have relaxed and the clouds have taken over
  the "move along; nothing to see here" function.
- Various stat tests show these relationships are significant
  according to 2 indep stats tests.
- Using these factoids a movie has been made showing recent regional
  cloud activity and the expected UFO activity vs historical activity
  from similar days in the past 10 years according to NUFORC data.


As I've been promising people visiting my BB for several years now --
I have some preliminary computer models that predict UFO activity
days, weeks or months in the future based on this and that.  And one
of the thats is clouds.

And as mentioned in posts to these groups I've started to suspect that
"someone" may be manipulating at least some aspects of weather at
least in my part of the world to "modulate" the ability of either
ground observers to see objects in the sky at night and/or vice versa.

The work presented here is based on another piece of evidence for the
above in the form of images from weather satellites.  By cutting out
part of the relevant images that has to do with just weather within a
couple 100s km from my location it turns out observed cloud activity
has a stat sig weekly timetable.  It may be "normal" in some parts of
the world the large industrial ag to see clouds come and go based on
human activity. Maybe even come and go based on the work week. Mental
model: smoke stacks might operate on a weekly cycle and smoke and haze
can change local weather conditions. But in my region clouds come in
off the Southern Ocean mostly direct from Antarctica.  It's hard to
fathom how cloud parameters can vary because of human activity in the
Antarctic or Southern Ocean. There is no industry out there to do the
modifying.

But nevertheless it is there. If you boil the relevant sequence of
weather sat images down to a number based on cloud temperature seen in
the image, we find those numbers are strongly related to the day of
the week. And not only related, but showing a stat sig similarity with
the weekly cycle of UFO sightings. But the more interesting thing
seems to be -- this relationship has only started up in my region
AFAIK recently. By recently I mean the past few months.

The output from the relevant time-series regression using dow to
predict cloud temperatures seen in my region hr by hr since the start
of Oct (just a conveniently small dataset to present here) looks like:

Sampled`dataset:
Date``````````````````````````DOW````CloudTemp`````predictedCloudTemp
```20231001`````````````````````1``````190.248``````183.344
```20231002`````````````````````2``````147.959``````187.167**(2sd`diff)
```20231002`````````````````````2``````172.738``````187.167
```20231003`````````````````````3``````186.973```````190.99
```20231003`````````````````````3``````195.163```````190.99
```20231004`````````````````````4``````188.339``````194.813
```20231008`````````````````````1``````209.815``````183.344*(1sd`diff)
```20231009`````````````````````2``````218.096``````187.167*
```20231012`````````````````````5``````210.565``````198.637
```20231013`````````````````````6``````196.944```````202.46
```20231013`````````````````````6``````211.069```````202.46
```20231017`````````````````````3``````215.535```````190.99*
```20231019`````````````````````5``````203.472``````198.637
```20231020`````````````````````6``````187.603```````202.46
```20231021`````````````````````7``````184.094``````206.283*

MODEL:
y = 3.82318*x + 179.521
beta in 3.82318 +- 0.805445  (90% CI)
alpha in 179.521 +- 3.80707 
T-test: P(beta>0) = 1.000000
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.349989
	critical value = 0.306 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.14205733


The dataset shows that for hourly images from the weather sats that we
extract a "CloudTemp" for the local region we can use the day-of-week
(Sun==1) to predict the CloudTemp code.  The model formula is only a
rough estimate but the 2 stats tests show it is strongly linked with
the actual extracted cloud temp.  We can covert the CloudTemp to an
actual temperature in deg C but that's not terribly relevant here. All
we need to note is that for some reason the temp of clouds rolling in
off the Southern Ocean seem to be influenced by the day of the week
somehow.

We have seen previously that UFO sightings seem to have a strong
statistical pattern linked to day of week. It is certainly true that
UFO observers may be influenced by the day of the work week.  But we
have also seen previously there is a "real" pattern in there because
the UFO activity observed by robot stations (MADAR) has exactly the
same pattern.

From the NUFORC summary data we can extract a count by day of week for
just Octobers between 2010-2022 as:

2       782
3       898
4       936
5       1004
6       1062
7       1377
1       968

As we've seen before a couple times sightings seem to increase from
Monday making Sat the busiest day of LITS and other metallic spheres
and whatever, then sharply declining for Sun and back to Monday at
minimum again.

If we do the same thing for the CloudTemp numbers seen hourly for Oct
2023 so far we get:

DOW`````av`CloudTemp````sd`CloudTemp
2```````179.567`````````41.6782
3```````177.489`````````40.2682
4```````169.576`````````49.7941
5```````186.492`````````38.7821
6```````194.404`````````32.554
7```````200.963`````````23.5072
1```````186.212`````````35.1885

And, surprise, it shows a very similar pattern to UFO activity.
(Based on just the 7 averages for the days-of-week the similarity is
not stat sig. But doing the time series regression for each CloudTemp
for each hr in the month so far and eliminating 2s outliers gets the
usual 2-tests stat sig result).

So to UFO weather. Even without any official sightings data for
October we can now hazard a guess what that activity looks like based
on sat images of clouds -- at least in my region.  Using the DOW to
guesstimate the (average) activity for that hour we can build a model
that translates hourly CloudTemp into a very rough estimate of UFO
activity for that hour.

A little movie showing the sat images with a plot of the estimated UFO
activity the relevant avg CloudTemp implies, along with some text at
the bottom of each frame giving the date and time, the avg CloudTemp
and the predicted UFO activity is at:
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/UFO-WEATHER/melb.avi>.

At some point I will reconcile this with my actual diaried
observations of the night sky to see whether there is some vague
match-up. :) The only problem is -- there have been so many clouds
coming in off the Southern Ocean specifically around dawn and dusk
most days (i.e. usu peak UFO viewing times) and also all day/night Fri
and Sat (for some reason) viewing has been somewhat difficult.

But it's still amazing to me if you are very very patient, even with
90% cloud cover you can determine some lights -- esp the brighter ones
-- visible through gaps in the cloud cover are moving relative to
fixed stars visible in the same gap. And every now and then one will
stop and hover overhead so you can give it a wave.

--
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deflect research on UFOs. In 2004 groups of UFO's repeatedly
approached the USS Nimitz while it was on exercises off the Cal coast.
At one point intercept planes were sent out to see what the UFO's
were.  That's how the famous "tictac" came to light.  The incident
prompted the leaking of several military videos showing unusual
objects, that eventually led to Congressional inquiries and new
disclosure legislation. The so-called "new openness" on the topic.
But the Pentagon is seen to be dragging its feet on the matter and has
to be repeatedly told publicly the military works for the US govt and
not vice-versa. A new Pentagon UFO dept was established and reports
have been written. The Pentagon has wanted to limit its research into
UFO's to the post-2014 period.  Maybe to limit the damage that might
be done otherwise.  It's fair enough they also want to limit their
work to just what members of the military report, even if that skews
the findings.  But back in 1950 in a NATO exercise off Denmark
involving US carriers and other ships there was a series of events
that seem to replicate the Nimitz incident.  Descriptions are very
similar. So it seems unlikely UFO's that aren't otherwise hoaxes or
mistakes are all the result of 21st cent aircraft research. Machines
run by somebody almost 100y ago had the same "impossible" performance
characteristics. There was, ostensibly, nothing to develop upto now.
So the explanation of "secret aircraft under development" is seemingly
something of a charade; disinformation. The only way "development"
works is if it is being "developed" after it has been stolen from
someone else but without the manuals. Which is what some military
people told Congress. The Pentagon apparently don't need to take
lessons from V. Putin on how to carelessly work against their own interests].