Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: waypoints

[uploaded 16 times; last 09/09/2024]

The AI's have been running for several months on "nav models" --
building models to predict various kinds of events or sightings using
the idea "something" is moving from asteroid-to-asteroid around the
solar system, sometimes visiting earth, sometimes staying for a while,
and sometimes doing "something" that is seen or otherwise recorded.

There are currently 114 "topics of interest" ranging from the conc of
atm gases on earth, tremors on mars, "things" seen on the moon,
missing people of different types, cryptids, economic activity of
various kinds, as well as ufo sightings broken down into dozens of
categories (and only a sampler of what is possible).

All but 2 of them prove to show some affinity for the basic concept of
the modelling.  Some show a "weak" affinity but still seem to be
connected. A large chunk show a strong link.

In all these (now) millions of models the AI's have used their usual
rule of thumb to slightly vary the parameters to include info they can
use to decide whether different factors actually make a difference to
how well (or badly) the specific model turns out. One of the ideas is
to insert a random planet or moon in the list of solar system objects
the model uses to predict movement and sometimes arrival on earth.
(There is also a move underway to allow first targets other than earth
as the number of phenomena under study now include several that are
located on other planets; yet another development will allow
determination of a multitarget track where a putative object starts off
at some location then goes hand over hand via several asteroids or
other specifiable locations in the solar system to its final destination).

So the AI's have 1000s of models and now an idea of which "added
planets" actually make a difference to how well the simulated arrivals
on earth (or wherever) actually line up with the phenomenon of the moment.

They can then do a "meta analysis" and decide which additions or
combinations of additions improve the match and whether any or all of
these make a strong statistical difference over the full set of
simulation results.

And the little table they've pushed out this morning looks like this:

Wed Apr 24 10:26:29 EST 2024
 REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
 *****************************************
     VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------
           uran     0.08117         0.01927       4.21295       0.00003
           merc     0.07027         0.01889       3.71892       0.00021
           nept     0.06861         0.02161       3.17556       0.00153
           venu     0.04246         0.02121       2.00165       0.04555
           jupi     0.03117         0.01607       1.93914       0.05272
           plut     0.02913         0.02287       1.27360       0.20305
           mars     0.02543         0.02019       1.25937       0.20814
           satu     -0.01023         0.02055      -0.49778       0.61873
     CONSTANT       0.25135         0.00752      33.40625       0.00000
 WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =        41.18700
 DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =      1190
 SCALE ESTIMATE          =         0.18604
 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.03263
 THE F-VALUE =        5.018 (WITH   8 AND 1190 DF)   P - VALUE = 0.00000
 THERE ARE  1199 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT. 
 AVERAGE WEIGHT          =         0.99917


The "meta study" shows adding some planets to the list of objects used
to simulate the travel of "whatever" around the solar system include
some but definitely not all major planets. We can see from the rhs "p
value" column that uranus, mercury, neptune and venus figure very
significantly in how well a particular model matches whatever phenom
is being studied at the time. It seems the involvement of Uranus in
all of the 100 things under study is almost beyond question.

OTOH a former favorite because of its naive statistical links with UFO
and other activity -- Saturn -- seems to be an odd one out of the list
because it's p-value is so large. I.e. there's only a 40% chance the
effect it is seen to have on the various model matches is
real. There's a 60% chance it is just noise. But the nominal
"coefficient" is anyway -ve. Meaning it seems unlike every other
planet in the list the inclusion of Saturn makes the match WORSE.  We
might speculate that while other planets listed may or may not be
"waypoints" on the trip between (wherever) and Earth, Saturn has a
different status. E.g. if might be the "home" of some of the putative
travelling objects. Or it might be totally unconnected with them.
Something about Saturn appears to be different.

At this point it seems considering objects jumping from asteroid to
asteroid around the solar system and sometimes deciding to jump from
an asteroid and come to Earth and stay for a while involves using
some planets are waypoints or slingshots.

While Mercury has been hinted at in the case of explanations for the
waves of COVID seen during the Big Pandemic, and the verification here
it is involved in many trips involving other kinds of activity at the
destination point, it's unusual to see Uranus figure so strongly.  How
is it "on the way" to Earth? We might suspect many of the visitors
whose activities we seem to be detecting via UFO sightings and cattle
mutilations (etc) seem to be coming from far afield. It may be
pointing to Kuiper Belt objects. Or some of the odd asteroids found to
be "cohabiting" with Uranus. Or (of course) something else. :)


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