Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: project bluebook compared with modern datasets

[uploaded 16 times; last 17/09/2024]

I've been tinkering with my little "bugs hopping from asteroid to
asteroid" simulation and applied it to the old "unexplained" entries
from Project Bluebook. This is something any high-school senior could
have done in the past 50y but (AFAIK) didn't. :)

Using very much the same programs I've used in industry to predict
when a shopper would come in next and how much money they would spend,
the simulation picks a set of asteroids and comets from a region of
the solar system that orbit between A1 and A2 from the sun (measured
in "astronomical units"; i.e. Earth orbits at 1 AU from the sun) and
inclination above the plane of the Earth's orbit ("ecliptic") from IN1
to IN2 degrees.

Most "normal" planets and asteroids are very close to the same orbital
plane, but there are 1000s that are oddballs and orbit way above the
ecliptic. Astronomers use inclinations above 90 degrees to denote
asteroids or comets that are "going backwards" around the sun.  The
vast majority of objects orbit "counter clockwise" when viewed from
above the solar system, but many 1000s are left that go the other way.
Probably captures or objects that got booted by the mighty Jupiter
during its long reign as top dog in these parts of the galaxy.

The program then simulates a small number of UFO's that decide to hop
from rock to rock for reasons unknown. Sometimes they decide to hop to
Earth where they get added (after some manipulation) to a tally of
UFO's seen to date.

Assuming travel is in smooth curves at constant speed we can try to
twiddle until we find a matching speed so that objects leaving some
asteroid and arriving on (simulated) Earth very closely match against
UFO sightings actually reported.

The back end of the program checks all the statistics and validates
the simulation by ensuring the same set of parameters that are
estimated from the 1st 1/2 of the simulation ALSO exactly explain the
2nd 1/2 of the simulation. If it can do that then the simulation not
only explains some UFO sightings it is *predicting* UFO sightings for
the 1/2 of the data it didn't use to estimate the various parameters.
In theory we can then use the simulation output to predict UFO reports
we expect later this year, next year or any time in the future where
NASA/JPL has good predictions where all the relevant asteroids will be
at the time.

Over and over again in the past weeks this program has predicted
correctly various events many researchers have associated with UFO
activity.  Most paranormal and cryptid sightings seem to be strongly
predictable from the simulated "bug hopping". Also events like
missing people, Havana syndrome cases, large power outages, airplane
crashes and "incidents", all can be explained to high statistical
confidence by the coming and going of these simulated "bugs".

I've even pushed the simulation to explain things that are definitely
not "events". Things like the US spend on military operations. And, of
course, COVID deaths, cases and infections (assumed to be ~14 days
prior to a reported case). All these things and probably a lot more as
I think about it seem to be strongly linked to "goings on out there
in the solar system".

So while the AI's were downloading some old asteroid position data to
see whether something else could be explained by asteroid movements
and bug-hoppings, I dug out the old Bluebook file and prepared a set
of files to pass into the relevant processing pipeline on one of the
machines.

And what popped out was at first troubling. But upon further twiddling
it only confirms that Bluebook did capture something real and
something at least associated with stuff going on out there in some
remote part of the solar system.

The startling thing at first was the matches the AI's found were
statistically strong but the number of predicted sightings from the
program did not very closely match the day-by-day reports of the
"never explained" part of Bluebook cases. The overall match was less
than e.g. the modern NUFORC dataset from 2006 onward (when they
started using web reports and their caseload went up 10x overnight :).

But then I noticed the set of asteroids the AI had selected was just
one I have often used as a "base case" for these exercises.  So I
asked it to run a whole heap of random sets of asteroids including
some odd high-inclination and retrograde asteroids I know from past
explorations have a good affinity with UFO sightings (at least the ones
in the NUFORC database).

And -- PING -- it found a set of asteroids that predicted at least 1/2 the
Bluebook sightings to the day with the rest a very close statistical match
(i.e. often just 1 or 2 days out).

So this prompted me to run this "odd" set of asteroids past the same
UFO datasets I have been using up until now -- usually UFO sightings
broken down by color and shape. I also threw in my own diary
entries from 2020 onward as another test. Since I was careful to
screen out all objects that were "obviously" airplanes at extreme
range, or satellites moving in normal west to east directions I
expected some problems.

But given the Bluebook dataset I was using was for the "unexplained" cases
only it turns out they are very very similar to the events I have
seen myself. Both datasets are "curated" and seem to line up very
close to each other.

I've prepared a summary output of the various datasets with some
numbers and "density plots" showing which parts of the solar
system "light up" and are strongly connected with each data set passed
through the AIs. There are some similarities and some differences.
It seems, overall, UFO's in the Bluebook "unexplained" file are associated
with approx the same parts of the solar system as those I've seen
myself over the past few years. And also similar to the NUFORC's data
for "orange light" UFO's that seem to be one of the characters that
denote something "real" that is not usually a Starlink sat train, airplane,
or some other mundane object.

For comparison I've also thrown in a couple of the UFO types I did NOT
expect to line up very close -- "black" and "silver" UFOs.  In earlier
work we saw how these types are strongly related to the poles. As sea
ice shrinks and expands each season the black and silver UFO sightings
(in particular) vary in unison. It *could* be that weather in the
Arctic or Antarctic is connected with the behaviour of US citizens and
prompts them to go outside where they might see and therefore report
more UFOs than otherwise. But now it seems the "nav model" shows all
these things can equally well or better explained by things
travelling between remote parts of the solar system and Earth.

Looking at the maps in details it seems the meagre match for sightings
using asteroids at the high-inclination region originally found can be
vastly improved by moving to a different set of asteroids.  It seems
the black UFO's are strongly associated with some low-inclination
asteroids, as shown. But the AIs have yet to find a region that explains
silver UFO's as well as black or Bluebook.

A final plank in the data today is "chase" UFO's. These are objects seen
interacting with obvious military or other aircraft -- either being
chased by or doing the chasing. It seems these objects -- those that are
apparently under pressure from the US military for reasons unknown but
strongly suspected -- come from a certain part of the solar system
that matches up at least roughly with one of the other sets. See the maps.

We are at the point of identifying where the "white hats" and "black
hats" come from.

<kym.massbus.org/UFO/DISPLAY/25mar2024/>.

--
Don't worry, we'll never run out of oil
Interesting Engineering, 9 Nov 2022
That being said, at current consumption, we have by some accounts an
estimated 47 years of oil left to be extracted. That equates to somewhere in
the region of 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves. Other sources up
this estimate a bit, but most agree we have around 50 years left, give or take.

[No Good Deed Goes Unpunished:]
Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who
handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing
climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow
the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in
your favor.
-- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying
   Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an
   organization representing govt workers with high security clearances.

A vast array of our most sophisticated sensors, including space-based
platforms, have been utilized by different agencies, typically in
triplicate, to observe and accurately identify the out-of-this-world
nature, performance, and design of these anomalous machines, which are
then determined not to be of earthly origin.
-- Jonathan Grey, NASIC intel officer, Wright Patterson AFB, 06 Jun 2023

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