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Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos and cattle mutilations (2/n)

[uploaded 31 times; last 17/09/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We examine USDA data for selected years 1990-2005.  The USDA keep
  track of unusual cattle deaths and generally classifies cattle
  mutilation deaths along with others with no explanation as
  "Unknown". Unknown deaths represent about 20% of all unusual cattle deaths.
- The region with the highest proportion of Unknown deaths in 2005 was
  the US NW. In the same year the highest per capita UFO sightings
  occurred in the same region. We know where this is heading given the
  previous posting on FBI reports in the 1970s.
- The regression of UFO sightings vs Unknown cattle deaths by region
  and year finds a 95% likely association with a T-test, but a Rank
  test fails to find an association (i.e. the ordering of region/year
  by sightings and region/year by deaths was not particularly
  similar). So the overall result is "weak" but not ignorable.
- A future post may single out a particular UFO type or types in the
  years concerned that ticks all statistical tests.  We know from a
  prev post some types are more closely associated with more cattle
  deaths than others and, in fact, the appearance of some UFO types
  seems to suppress cattle mutilation events efficiently in the same
  month they are sighted.


The AI's have been scrounging the Internet for data and finally
located some numbers from the USDA.

The report
&lt;https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/nahms/general/downloads/cattle_calves_nonpred_deathloss_2005.pdf&gt;
shows relevant data on cattle and calf deaths across the USA between
1991 and 2005.

The most relevant number the s/w pinged was the distribution in
"unknown" cattle deaths by region.

By no especial coincidence it seems the greatest number of cattle (as
opposed to calves) deaths with cause "unknown" occurs in the NW.  I
note a quick Bing search revealed Oregon police are still dealing with
a large number of mutilated cattle even now. Apparently they have few
leads because the mutilators appear to almost never leave tyre tracks
or footprints. Damn!

I recall a "few" years back on another newsgroup we were discussing
crop circles. A large fraction of the group accepted newspaper reports
that a pair of characters in the UK was somehow responsible for all
the circles then being found across Brit because they had demonstrated
they could make a version of the circles being seen using a rope and
some wooden boards.

Maybe the pair has now come to the US and started to do some amateur
butchery.  The only thing I can see against it -- the number of cases
seems to be quite large. Quite large.

Of course not all "unknown" cattle deaths in a year related to You
Know What. But there are 1000s and 1000s of them.  From the report,
above, I've made a little table:

	Number of cattle deaths by region and year (USDA)
Year    NC        NE        NW        SC        SE        SW      Total
        (000s)
1991    264       312       103       498       183       179     1539
1995    277       311       115       522       201       218     1644
2000    281       291       124       625       174       215     1710
2005    267       300       117       635       174       224     1717

Percent of cattle deaths classified "unknown" by region 2005:
        NC        NE        NW        SC        SE        SW      Total
	14.3(1.6) 20.2(1.7) 26.0(3.0) 16.4(1.4) 15.0(1.3) 20.3(2.0)

Number of "Unknown" cattle deaths 2005 (000s):
        NC        NE        NW        SC        SE        SW      
	38.2      60.6      30.4      104.1     26.1      45.5


We can compare this data against the UFO sightings data:

	UFO sightings per mn cap by year and region (NUFORC)
        nc        ne        nw        sc        se        sw
1991    0.875676  0.346808  1.03775   0.500072  0.337983  0.273833
1995    1.97418   0.7744    1.65456   0.402939  0.575018  0.768812
2000    1.89038   0.432104  1.46935   0.721524  0.459668  1.11989
2005    2.61509   1.2544    4.10293   1.64792   1.44779   1.35838


The only feature in common at this point -- the US NW saw the highest
per capita number of UFO sightings in 2005 and the USDA notes the
largest% of cattle deaths marked "unknown" in 2005 was also in
the US NW.

But we can run a little stats program to see how well UFO sightings in
each region for each year (as above) predict the number of "unknown"
cattle deaths.

TS regression of UFO sightings & cattle deaths by region and year:
y = 0.216618*x + 35.8851
beta in 0.216618 +- 0.256067   95% CI
alpha in 35.8851 +- 9.95943 
P(beta&gt;0.000000) = 0.955596
calculated Spearman corr = 0.405594
Critical Spearman = 0.504000 2-sided at 5%; accept H0:not_related
r2 = 0.26214290

Binned data:
Bin label         sightings  "unknown" deaths   model-predicted deaths
				(000s)
1995nc                   3      38.6815       36.535
1995se                25.5       46.587      41.4089
2000nc                 8.5      33.4815      37.7264
1991sw             13.6667      48.4863      38.8456*(prediction low)
1995ne                  59       62.822      48.6656*(low)
2000nw                18.5        31.07      39.8926*(high)
2000ne                  34       51.518      43.2501*(low)
2005nc                  22      32.1405      40.6507*(high)
2005nw                  37      37.0325         43.9
2005se                73.5        43.35      51.8065*(high)
2005sw                  50       45.472       46.716
2005sw                  50       45.472       46.716


The program performs a binning regression. Data points are assigned to
boxes/bins depending on which other data-points they are most similar
to.  E.g. the bin labelled "1995nc" include the data for North Central
region in 1995 but also any other year/region that has a similar
sightings and deaths values. The sightings and deaths column, above,
is then the average of the points that went into each box and these
averages are passed to a time-series careful regression.

The s/w found there was a statistically significant association
between UFO sightings in a region each year and the number of
"unknown" cattle deaths in the same region/year. It found the pattern
found could occur by chance alone only around 5% of the time.
However, the Spearman rank test did not find a sufficient level of
significance so the overall result is "weak".

The R2 shows only around 1/4 of Unknown deaths seem to vary in unison
with the UFO sightings of a region. And the \beta says for each UFO
sighting (of whatever type) in the years in question there were
potentially a startling 217 +- 256 (95% CI) Unknown cattle deaths in
the region.

These guys are potentially quite busy beavers!

We recall from a previous post we've discovered some UFO types are
associated far more with activities like cattle butchering than
others. In fact the appearance of some UFO types anywhere across the
US seems to efficiently suppress cattle mutilations across the US in
that month.  AKA "cops".

A future post may dissect the UFO sightings for the years in question
above and determine the specific types more implicated in Unknown
cattle deaths in e.g. the US NW 1990-2005 and which others might have
had a protective effect. The years in question preceded NUFORC's move
to web-page reporting so numbers are low and some UFO types in those
"early years" are rare to non-extant so the probability the patterns
will duplicate very closely the FBI data we've seen previously are low. 
But "we'll see".

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