Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: affinity of ufo shapes for different planets -- moon albedos

[uploaded 5 times; last 27/09/2024]

I don't know about you, but when I see some big orb fly over my back
yard being chased by some little airplane or blacked-out helicopter,
the 2nd thing I think about is where the heck are these things coming
from? I'm not sure how you go about making something out of what seems
just like pure blinding light -- be it golden, yellow, white, ruby with
dark center, or whatever -- but where are the factories that make
these things? In Nevada? Siberia?  The moon? Mars? Somewhere else?

Well maybe we have some ideas based on some of the kinds of simulation
studies I've cooked up in the past few years. First some simple
correlations between UFO sightings and weather on parts of our own
planet, then "motion planning" simulations that tried to line up
straight-line motion from different sets of planets or asteroids so
they looked just like the sightings data, then (most recently) correlating
weather conditions as described by text reports and Mars Orbiter imagery.

The skill the different models have in making what are essentially
predictions -- given the model-making mechanism uses the idea of
information hiding to produce a "validated" model; it keeps some of
the data hidden from itself until it's built what it thinks is a good
model for part of the data, then checks that model also predicts the
part of the data it did not see during the model building/training
phase -- has increased over time.  The "nav model" managed to predict
about 40-50% of UFO sightings (whether actual unusual objects or mundane
meteors and sightings of Venus at 6am, it didn't differentiate :).
The Mars Weather models did much better than that. Dust storms or
other activities over key parts of Mars seem to predict 50-60% of
subsequent UFO sightings for the overall total of reports and even more
for some objects with apparently particular shapes and colors.

And now we'll take this one notch further by trying to cook up
weather reports for planets where no such weather reports exist.

Sounds like magic? Not really.  Doing the impossible is why they pay
data scientists those big bucks.

A good chunk of the modelling work we did for the recent Mars models
was based on concepts from climate science. A planet is sitting there
all innocent when it gets hit by rays from the sun. Some of that
energy goes into heating up air, rocks, water, methane, cyanide --
whatever you got -- and bounce back into space, eventually. The old
Kirchoff principle tells you that unless you see something
accumulating at some point in a process there is a balancing act
going on.  What goes in must go out again. It's generally like that
with heat and planets. (A small wrinkle happens when key conditions are
constantly changing over time -- like with earth and any gases with
more than 2 atoms that happen to be accumulating in the atm and oceans
because of industrial processing nobody seems able to willing to stop
because too much money).

And a very key indicator of the micro climate or weather for a planet
is its ability to reflect sunlight back to space even before it gets a
chance to heat anything up. The albedo is the relevant concept. For
earth about 30% of incoming light is reflected back to space by white
fluffy clouds, white snow and ice, and to some extent by Arabian or
other deserts. The other 70% gets coverted one way or another into heat.
That also goes out to space.

When you look real close you find the albedo is not fixed -- it does
change day by day. In the case of the earth the albedo seems to be
slowly darkening (decreasing). Bad news for local temperatures.  Even
a tiny change generally can lead to massive heating or cooling,
depending on the direction of change.

So what does all this have to do with UFOs? Well, we can cook up
numbers that track the albedo of planets and moons in our little
solar system here. Changes in albedo from day to day (generally TINY)
can be an indication of local "weather" conditions. And where there is
changing weather there is maybe some kind of micro control input to
any system that may be flying or swimming or otherwise moving through
that region. Small changes over time can be built up and detected and
we can generally tell where something has been in the past by the way
it reacted to changes in the weather from its past locations.  Basic
forensic science. Things that have been in contact or even near
contact (given radiation can jump gaps :) leave an impression on
each other. This can go to extremes when scientists shoot individual
electrons through an experiment and can measure that an electron
that just went through it now somehow detected the presence of
electrons that went through it in the past (some some physicists
definitely rule in what happened in the future as well). Spooky!

So we have to cook up these albedo numbers. No-one is going to do it
for us. And that means we have to think how to mix together what we know
to produce something we don't know we know.

Think of how we can go about this. The sun emits light. Most of it
according to the physics of objects with an effective surface
temperature around 5000K is in the yellow/green part of the light
spectrum.  Light travels out from the sun, falling in intensity by an
inverse square law. It sneaks up on an unsuspecting planet but --
dammit! -- some of it bounces off because the planet has ice and snow
or shiny domes and stuff that reflect visible light (if the stealth
tech is turned on or you live underground the warranty on this is
voided).  What does hit the planet goes into heating it up. IR comes
back off the planet (eventually) and gets to space. But that is IR,
not visible light. The visible light is the stuff that got bounced by
the shiny stuff. And that light goes out in all directions, falling
off again by an inverse square law. But out there somewhere is a geek
with a shiny new telescope. SOME of the visible light -- maybe only a
teeny fraction -- eventually gets to the business end of the
telescope and twitches a dial or something. Something has been measured!

And it turns out a lot of these light measurements are on file.
Things like the day to day "magnitude" of a star, planet or moon are
recorded and stuck in databases around the world in case they might be
of use to someone, some day, for no reason we might know at present
but we have faith collecting these numbers is not in vain.  It will
come in handy sometime. The money men wont see it so you have to
produce charts and density plots and things at weekly meeting so they
don't close the telescope project down and divert the money into
making a better wet-vac or cruise missile or something.

And today is one of those days! By reverse engineering what they call
"apparent magnitudes" we can deduce what the albedo of something that light
bounced off is, given we know its location at the time -- its distance
from Earth and distance from the sun.

And we have all THAT data, too. E.g. the JPL's Horizons database
contains the position and apparent magnitude hour by hour for mns
of objects in our solar system. They claim to have data (simulated
data anyway) going back 1000s of years into the past and maybe some
similar duration into the future.

So we can cook up albedo time series for all the planets and moons.
In reality some of the moons are so new and so tiny no earth telescope
has or can pick them up and all the big space telescopes are too busy with
other things to keep a constant watch on some rock around Saturn that's
only a few km across.

So we can throw to the AI programs the tasks of assembling these data
and running them through some careful model-building to see if any of
them predict UFO sightings on Earth (usu over N Am) over the coming
days. Is it possible some local weather on a moon of Saturn MIGHT
predict whether or not someone sees a Black Sphere somewhere over
California in the following week.

I'm glad you asked. Yes. Yes it can.

The rusty iron at Quant Central has crunched the numbers and come up
with a list. A pretty amazing list suggesting the 50-60% prediction
skill of Mars Weather models is now superceded, at least for some UFO types.

The summary table looks like:


Moon	UFO type	Trans	R2		Beta		stderr(Beta)
801	Oval			0.82263029	1.64059		0.114654
803	Cylinder		0.78445988	1.37135		0.141175
725	Cigar		y	0.57143413	0.00808259	0.00145753
505	Sphere			0.51827471	0.877346	0.10666
714	Rectangle	y	0.47358675	0.0160487	0.00342788
515	Diamond		y	0.44881234	0.0117082	0.00318877
509	Flash		y	0.43208238	0.009347	0.00231098
804	Triangle	x	0.41092355	947.196		135.883
721	Changing	y	0.39198419	0.00553521	0.00136771
812	Disk			0.36176651	1.2653		0.269318
805	Unknown		x	0.34997460	935.576		173.034
716	Fireball	xy	0.34766250	0.957246	0.195626
504	Circle			0.33410548	1.78087		0.290574
503	Other		xy	0.27602526	1.49121		0.316558
514	Formation	y	0.21826383	0.00254131	0.000809521
707	Light		xy	0.15314363	0.765176	0.199152

The table is ordered by R2 -- the so-called explanation power -- of
the model.  Roughly, this is the fraction of UFO's of the given type
that can be predicted by changes in the (calculated from day-by-day
data) albedo of the given moon.

The "moon" codes are from Horizons/JPL.  The planets are numbered 1-9
(yes!) so you can figure out which primary we're talking about from
the first digit.  The last 2 digits tell you mostly the order of
discovery and usu the size of the moon -- biggest ones seen
first. Only 100 moons are allowed by the codes and some planets are
pushing that boundary given a few close-up probes have seen a lot of
big rocks.

We see the "best" model found so far predicts (supposedly) 82%
of Oval UFO's seen day by day over the period 2006-2022. Somehow, the
albedo (or our calculation for it involving the various time series
from JPL) of 801 (Triton; Neptune's "first" moon) going up and down a
teeny bit each day tips us off when most Oval UFO sightings will
happen in the next several days.  If we do a more careful model
building (on-going as of yesterday) we can maybe determine the lag
between change in albedo and change in Oval sightings as seen over
Dirt to get an idea of how fast these things might be moving
between Neptune and home plate.  (From prev work we seemed to replicate
an estimate around 1 AU/d give or take a probably big error range).

For a couple items we see the Beta of the model is huge. A teeny
change in albedo leads to a large increase in Triangle or Unknown
sightings. ("Unknown" is NUFORC code for "witness did not state shape
of object and we couldn't figure it out from their verbal description
either and they are also not contact-able").  OTOH some UFO shapes
e.g. Formation (NUFORC speak for "multiple objects seen together maybe 
different indiv shapes but we have to summerise it somehow so give us
a break!") suggests a large change in albedo of 514 (Jupiter's small moon 
Thebe -- diam only ~120 km) is associated with a small change in sightings 
of Formations.

So, again, we seem to have been spoiled for choice. The models
suggest many many places in the solar system "touch" whatever UFOs are.  
Some of them may be made in the US or Russia -- insiders insist
there is a lot of reverse engineering of crashed objects going on --
but a wide variety have visited or maybe call home a wide variety of places.

And at least for some types we can fairly precisely calculate where
and when they will be seen over N Am.

Until any of them read this, of course.

But the AI's take that into account as well, so don't you worry about that.

--
In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods,
wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected mns of people
around the world. Meanwhile, rapid and worrisome developments in the life
sciences and other disruptive technologies accelerated, while govts
made only feeble efforts to control them. [...]
Today, we once again set the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight
because humanity continues to face an unprecedented level of danger.
Our decision should not be taken as a sign that the international
security situation has eased. Instead, leaders and citizens around the
world should take this statement as a stark warning and respond
urgently, as if today were the most dangerous moment in modern history.
Because it may well be.
-- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 23 Jan 2024
[At 1 min to midnight pushing the apple cart over seems rational].

There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and
yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics
or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous
interest, as well as potential national security significance.
-- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing
   on UAPs.

[No Good Deed Goes Unpunished:]
Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who
handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing
climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow
the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in
your favor.
-- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying
   Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an
   organization representing govt workers with high security clearances.

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