Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com
Subject: what are fireballs? indications of ufo conflict?

[uploaded 17 times; last 17/09/2024]

OK. You thought UFO research was weird. You thought data-science was
silly. Now we are going to start mixing and matching data-sets to see
whether we can see evidence for some kind of conflict between
different groups of (supposed ;) UFOs.

If you've read the literature over the years there are stories that
people have from time to time seen "someone" take potshots at "someone
else" where neither of the someones were flying anything that looked
like a conventional aircraft. There are also "stories" that military
aircraft have shot at, maybe shot off bits of, some such aircraft too,
but we will re-visit those stories some other time.

What the AI's an me are interested in now is teasing apart the data
that might show UFO's are a "broad church" and involved in many
different things, and oftentimes seem to involve some group that
thinks ONE way about a subject (e.g. spreading some kind of virus
around the planet -- don't worry, total random thought and nothing
that could ever happen really in a million years) while other groups
think a totally different way about the same thing.

And sometimes, where there are diverging views and availability of
weapons -- maybe "super weapons" -- then maybe someone will try to iron
out particularly lumpy differences by using them.

We might have seen evidence of this, as above.

Or we might regularly be seeing evidence of it but are so ignorant
of the real state of play we don't recognise it for what it is.

I have mentioned previously that I've been tinkering with a very
simple model that posits at least some UFO's could be something
travelling around the solar system. If you setup a very simple
simulation based on the real positions of various asteroids and
comets, and some simile parametrization of travel between said
objects and maybe the Earth sometimes (e.g constant speed, more-or-less
straight lines, and simple fixed probabilities whether the trip is
undertaken any given day) then we end up with simulations that are
predictions of when something might have taken off from the vicinity
of some unnamed comet and headed into dear old Terra Firma. If we do
all that -- big surprise -- it turns out to be child's play to find
sets of asteroids and sets of numerical parameters that much up beyond
any statistical quirk with actual observations as posted to e.g. the
NUFORC. Even more than that, using data science validation techniques
we can show there is very strong evidence these models in fact predict
stuff into the future instead of simply parrot back data we fed the
programs in the first place.

This is all standard stuff that is used everyday by companies to
predict when shoppers will buy and what they will buy. When someone
will call in sick. When it is a fake sick call. And when -- of course
-- you view porn or a soccer game in company time so you can be
automatically fired by SMS. AI has a million uses, all of them good. ;)

But now what can we do with sets of these models. Each model predicts
some set of arrivals on Earth assuming a given set of asteroids and a
given set of numerical parameters. The model explained SOMETHING the
AI programs have been trying to analyze -- whether that be sightings
of Nessie or daily COVID cases over the period of The Pandemic.

Each model was found to be good at its job, whatever that was.

But now we can e.g. take pairs of these things -- maybe one for region
A of the solar system (i.e. some set of asteroids that hang around one
section of the region between Sun and Pluto) and maybe the other for
section B of the solar system. We can join the 2 things up and find
out how many BLACK ANTS were visiting Earth (supposedly!)  on a given
day, and how many RED ANTS were visiting Earth on the same day.

We can then ask. Did anyone notice something odd going on on those
days when e.g. the number of RED ants outnumbers the BLACK ants 10:1
or on days when the numbers went the out way?

Well the list of things we might have seen that are relevant is
probably very very long if we think about it. But one thing in my
fevered mind came immediately to light just after I thought up this problem.

During the past few years I've seen a lot of sh*t going on. It took a
while for me to cotton on that it was in no way normal.  And one of
the things was flaming meteors going across the sky.

When I was a kid in my 20s I build a few reflecting telescopes.  I
liked to make things. And I liked to go out at night and watch the sky
and take photos with my Dad's old Agfa hooked onto a bit of brass he
asked a fried to mill up that could mate the camera to my telescope
eyepiece. I used to go out of an evening often. Over maybe 10 years I
must have taken 1000s of pictures of the moon. :) You'd imagine I
actually looked up from my eyepiece a few times in all that time and
looked at the sky. Sometimes for long stretches of time as I zoned out
and wondered about this and that.

In all that time I never once saw a fireball. Even Halley had to wait
until I was in my 30s and that was kinda a bust given my Dad was sick
at the time.

But during the pandemic I not only saw 1 fireball. There was one time
there were 2 of them landing seemingly on the horizon. And this didn't
happen one time. It happened multiple times. There were also 2 other
items I saw something "flaming" come out of the sky. One time I
thought was a joke from a neighbour. It looked like a flaming bag of
garbage someone had somehow thrown over my house. The funny thing
about that one was -- as I watched this thing maybe a little bigger
than the size of a full moon, with a glowing orange triangular head
and flames coming out the back I thought I could even hear, it
suddenly totally disappeared.  Another time a silent ball of flame fell
out of the sky through a hole in the thick clouds just to the S of me.

And that's not to count dozens of flashes I've seen in the sky.
Sure. Could be for perfectly legitimate reasons. Experimental
military flares they are shooting off over the outer suburbs of
Melbourne for some reason.

But maybe all these things are totally something else.  When I checked
the way "fireball" reports at NUFORC behaved compared with AMS reports
or NASA's database of meteor re-entries (one of which famously turned
out to be an object from outside the solar system) they didn't check
out at all. Fireballs at the NUFORC could be explained by bugs hopping
between asteroids. The other 2 data-sets did not behave that way at all
even though you might EXPECT them to.

So now we look at the numbers and what they say. What they predict.
We take one "hopping" model predicting objects coming from one set of
asteroids.  And we take the list of predicted objects coming from
another set of asteroids and arriving at Earth on the same day. And we
try to calculate how many "bangs" from a possible shooting match
between the 2 sides there could be.

It turns out this is old hat military mathematics. I cut my teeth back
in the 70s on that kind of stuff. Yes. I had that kind of up-bringing. :)

During WWI Lanchester and others came up with simple formulas to
predict battle losses. Somehow it seemed important at the time.  What
is sometimes called Lanchester's Linear Law posited that if 2 sides
meet in hand-to-hand battle as used to happen in antiquity and
sometimes still in modern times then the number of casualties turns out
to be proportional to the size of the smaller force.  If you want to
write a little computer simulation you can set 2 forces up in random
positions in some region, have them shoot randomly around the place,
marking who gets shot, and calculating on average how many people are
killed until only 1 side is left.

Brutal stuff.

But can we find any evidence if this type of pattern involving UFOs?
As we know, I don't pose non-trivial questions until I've checked the
answer a few ways beforehand. :)

I now have many "bug hopping" models that explain something -- almost
2000 now.  Comparing each pair of them that can line up with each
other and also with sightings of fireballs, then comparing the number
of fireballs with the number of dead that might take place if the 2
sides were evenly matched military forces.... well, you can guess.
They many times line up perfectly.

As usual everything is checked several ways for statistical certainty.
It is also checked for predictive power -- the first 1/2 of the data
is used to predict the 2nd 1/2 of the data. And the only cases I
bother to look at involve the back 1/2 of the elephant predicting the
front 1/2 has a long nose. If it can do that then it's worth a read.

So almost the first cab off the rank was this example.

The AIs picked out 2 regions. One between 0 and 25 AU from the sun by
inclination 5-33 deg. The other region 0-11 AU from the sun and
inclination 60-72 deg.

It turns out one of these regions seems to be involved in some
activities you might judge "unfriendly" while the other goes the other way.

The guys from the low-incl region were predicted to be arriving at a
speed of around .6 AU/d from whichever asteroid they were handing
around before they decided to visit Earth.  The high-incl guys are
"slow movers" at .2 AU/d.

It seems they act maybe like they don't play well together.  On days
where one side outnumbers the other in the simulations there are
generally more fireballs seen buzzing around somewhere than when their
numbers are balanced or both are near 0.

As usual, we're talking a model that passes 2 tests at better than 90%
confidence and also validates so the early part of it -- the dataset
here runs from 1940 to 1960 because the models are based on explaining
BLUEBOOK sightings -- predicts the later part of it beyond a
reasonable double.

For future ref this is model 94. I've left a plot of the messy summary
at <kym.massbus.org/UFO/out94.gif>. Along the X axis is the predicted
different in numbers of RED ants (as simulated from one of the regions)
vs BLACK ants.  Along the vertical axis is the number of fireballs
reported for each day.  (It wasn't until the mid 60s that up to 5
fireballs were being reported some days).

As the graphic shows at least one test says 100% certain there is
something there (the other mandatory test says 99%). The difference
between RED and BLACK ants daily explains 20% of fireballs reported
over the US during the period of the dataset (1940-1970, daily).  The
stats tests on the data predicts when the 2 sides are well out of
balance on a certain day about 40% of them end up as fireballs.  
AKA some places as fodder for the USAF back-engineering pickup patrol.
It would be poetic if the total number of relevant fireballs in the
period was something like some number some guy told Congress in recent
times. 

(You're welcome).

--
World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47	<== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer

[No Good Deed Goes Unpunished:]
Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who
handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing
climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow
the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in
your favor.
-- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying
   Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an
   organization representing govt workers with high security clearances.

A vast array of our most sophisticated sensors, including space-based
platforms, have been utilized by different agencies, typically in
triplicate, to observe and accurately identify the out-of-this-world
nature, performance, and design of these anomalous machines, which are
then determined not to be of earthly origin.
-- Jonathan Grey, NASIC intel officer, Wright Patterson AFB, 06 Jun 2023

[Secret UFO recovery program blown open:]
I hope this revelation serves as an ontological shock sociologically
and provides a generally uniting issue for nations of the world to
re-assess their priorities.
-- David Grusch, 05 Jun 2023
[Talking to Les Kean et al for The Debrief, Grusch called for an end to
nearly a century of global UFO secrecy and warned that humanity needed to
prepare itself for "an unexpected, non-human intelligence contact scenario"].

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