Newsgroups: alt.ufo.report,alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: estimated albedos predict "consistent" trips from planetary moons

[uploaded 9 times; last 27/09/2024]

In a prev post we introduced the idea that a proxy for the albedo of
various moons around the solar system could predict "local weather
conditions" at the relevant locations.  And where you have some handle
on local weather it may be possible to find the pattern of that
weather imprinted on the movement of e.g. craft between one
location and another.

We did some calculations and found the albedo proxies
seemed to predict UFO sightings of different types in the following
days over N Am. It was suggested then that using lagged regressions
might allow us to obtain an(other) estimate of the speed of the relevant
objects. And the AI programs have delivered that result and also point 
out something more.

The s/w to calculate the albedoes as well as the programs to build
the machine learning models that uses those data have all been improved
in the past couple days. And the main numbers are already in.  Not
only do we obtain some speed estimates from the various planetary
systems, but they appear consistent with each other and also consistent
with several prev methods that all seemed to find if some UFO's were
physical objects they seem to on average move around the solar system
at a healthy speed of ~1 AU/d (i.e. way above solar escape velocity
and therefore "not normal").

(There has been an inkling that higher speeds are possible after some
UFO sightings appeared to contain embedded in them patterns that
matched robustly flaring seen by the Kepler space telescope in some 
nearby stars.  But the pattern was found in a period of UFO sightings 
several years before the light from those stars had arrived anywhere 
near Kepler or the solar system).

So we'll start with the latest headline numbers. We are trying to predict
(this time) UFO sightings in several US states. I use here the biggest
states for such reports -- CA, TX, FL and NY.

And this time we'll not just predict UFO sightings *today* from the
calculated moon albedos, we will predict them for up to 60 days in the
future and select which time-frame has the best R2 (so-called
"explanation power" of the relevant models). Given each outer planet
only varies its distance from our home by +-1 AU we then have a simple
way to estimate the speed of any reputed objects.  And as we shall
see the data actually starts to nail down that what is being measured
are physical objects moving from one place to another. As if seeing 
wasn't believing enough. :)

The top10 of 100s of results the AI's have tabulated are as follows:

Moon    Lag    UFO type  Transf  R2
        (d)    (state)
514     40     NY         xy     0.42514864
516     5      TX                0.42298179
514     40     NY                0.39577422
707     15     NY                0.38506653
701     20     TX         xy     0.38412438
802     40     NY         xy     0.38302418
516     5      TX         xy     0.38270851
715     35     TX         xy     0.38099940
801     40     NY         xy     0.37023543
516     5      TX         y      0.36792207

As usual the results are sorted by R2. The best model found used
the calculated albedo of moon 514 -- Jupiter's small moon Thebe --
lagged by 40d to match up with 43% of the ups and downs of daily UFO
sightings in NY state over the period 2006-2023.  (The Transf column
says some models involved taking logs of both the depend and indep var meaning 
the model is some kind of "power law" -- a very usual thing in physics).

Now we have our first estimate of things going from the Jovian system
to the Big Apple. 40 days. Jupiter is around 10 AU away, on average, so
the model speaks of "something" moving from the region of Thebe to NY
at an average speed around .25 AU/d. But how can we know if that is
just a fantasy number, some kind of uninteresting causation (someone
in NY sees Thebe go dark in their big telescope, they tell the
newspapers, and everyone in NY immediately starts reporting 
seeing odd things in the sky), or a physical object (or approximation
thereof) going from Jupiter to Earth.

Well the AI's have a way to show you. And they have a way to show you
it actually is what they (we all?) think it is.

First up. We need to be systematic. There are 100s of these models in
the list. We don't really need to settle on just the first 10.  And
therefore we need some "before the fact" method to calculate up a
speed from each planetary system (we need to do this before we see the
results in order that we're making a prediction of some kind rather
that just trying to twist the results away from something we found we
just don't like or believe). And there is at least one easy way to do
that. We can use a weighted average. For all the results we have we
can take the LAG for each one and weight it with the R2 for each
one. In that way the lags of the best models will be favored over
those that are not so best. We will use all the results and not throw
anything away because it looks "wrong".

See. We are doing data science and not whatever it is PI's do!

The results for each planet (yes, we even have data for 1 moon of
Pluto so it counts) look like this:

pl      avd     avlag   avsp
jupiter 5.2585  20.7655 0.253233
saturn  9.62019 16.529  0.582019
uranus  19.2303 23.4521 0.819982
neptune 30.1528 31.3449 0.961968
pluto   32.1523 20      1.60761

The "avd" is the average "delta" -- distance from earth to planet --
in AU over the last 100y. The avglag is the R2-weighted average lag
for all the models involving Jupiter's moons and any US state.  And
the "avsp" is then the average speed in AU/d. (We'll quibble over
whether av(d/lag) is the same as av(d)/av(lag) some other time).

We see the average speed among all the planets is very very roughly
the same. Pluto may be an oddball. Either the whole method is wrong,
the assumptions of the whole project are wrong, or maybe Pluto builds
better spaceships than the other systems. (There is a very tiny hint
in other data that maybe interstellar travel is possible and Pluto is
a bit more involved in that than some of the "inner" planets given its
"(sometimes) living on the outer edge of the system" position).

So everything seems reasonably consistent. The various speeds are
roughly the same and they also seem to agree with the suggestion (that
itself we made by several models over the past few years using a
number of different methods with slightly different assumptions) UFO's
"generally move around the system" around 1 AU/d.

But here is the kicker the AI's have come up with. The above are
produced using the "albedo" measures and how well the ups and downs of
various moon albedos seem to match up with the ups and downs of UFO
sightings in key US states a number of days later.  The AI's have
evidence the albedo is truly a "local weather" measure that is
"somehow" imprinting on the UFO's that are travelling between X and
earth because other measures associated with the moons seem to give
something different.

E.g. something that is generally already available for moons around
the solar system are their visual locations with respect to their
primary. In the JPL database they have an "X" and "Y" for each moon
that shows how far in arc seconds the moon is left/right, above/below
the position of the planet it orbits around.

We could use those numbers to try to match up against US state
sightings, calculate the weighted average lags and see what THEY say
the various speeds between planet X and earth are.

For the X values we find:

jupiter 5.2585 12.2992 0.427548
saturn 9.62019 17.6574 0.544825
uranus 19.2303 25.9234 0.741812
neptune 30.1528 14.3733 2.09783
pluto 32.1523 11.0327 2.91427

For the Y values we find:

jupiter 5.2585 13.5463 0.388187
saturn 9.62019 31.2793 0.307558
uranus 19.2303 14.4207 1.33352
neptune 30.1528 12.5829 2.39633
pluto 32.1523 12.6206 2.5476

And combining the X and Y we can also find:

jupiter 5.2585 16.553 0.317677
saturn 9.62019 27.611 0.348419
uranus 19.2303 21.4456 0.896701
neptune 30.1528 13.9281 2.16489
pluto 32.1523 6.29786 5.10527

It seems each of these shows a less consistent speed between various
planetary systems and Earth. Either some of the outer planets have 2x
or 5x faster transport than inner ones or the assumption that "X" and
"Y" represent something that imprints itself on local objects if they
fly off to Earth.

(Other data like apparent magnitude, avg surface brightness, and
percent illuminated also produce a big range of speed estimates.
Again, all things seen from Earth and not directly related to local
conditions. All these things are based on the amount of light reaching
earth on a given date rather than the totality of light received by
the relevant moon from the sun).

Given the albedo data gives kinda self-consistent results and also is
(roughly) consistent with several previous models, it seems easier to
accept that albedoes represent "local weather conditions" and as such
would imprint on something that actually travelled from X to Earth
while the position of some moon is something we see here on Earth and
seems hard to imagine how that would affect the trip time between some
planet and Earth in the same way as weather.  At the same time we have
to ack that moon position can effect flight time if some positions
make a moon harder to reach or further from the "slot" a transiting
spacecraft might need to get into to make the trip to Earth.

It just seems simpler to accept that albedo talks about some local
condition at X and the resulting lags talk about the trip from there
to here.

--
But what is true and I'm actually being serious here, is there are, there's
footage and records of objects in the skies that we don't know exactly what
they are, We can't explain how they moved, their trajectory. They did not
have an easily explainable pattern.
-- Pres Barack Obama, "The Late Show", 2021

"I think some of the phenomena we're going to be seeing continues to be
unexplained and might, in fact, be some type of phenomenon that is the
result of something that we don't yet understand."
--Ex-CIA Director John Brennan

"[F]or the few cases in all domains--space, air, and sea--that do
demonstrate potentially anomalous characteristics, AARO exists to help the
DOD, IC, and interagency resolve those anomalous cases. In doing so, AARO is
approaching these cases with the highest level of objectivity and analytic
rigor. This includes physically testing and employing modeling and
simulation to validate our analyses and underlying theories, and
peer-reviewing those results within the U.S. government, industry partners,
and appropriately cleared academic institutions before reaching any
conclusions."
-- Dr Sean Kirkpatrick, Senate Hearings on UFOs, 19 Apr 2023.

In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods,
wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people
around the world. Meanwhile, rapid and worrisome developments in the life
sciences and other disruptive technologies accelerated, while governments
made only feeble efforts to control them. [...]
Today, we once again set the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight
because humanity continues to face an unprecedented level of danger.
Our decision should not be taken as a sign that the international
security situation has eased. Instead, leaders and citizens around the
world should take this statement as a stark warning and respond
urgently, as if today were the most dangerous moment in modern history.
Because it may well be.
-- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 23 Jan 2024
[At 1 min to midnight pushing the apple cart over seems rational].

Unidentified aerial phenomena I. Observations of events
B.E. Zhilyaev, V. N. Petukhov, V. M. Reshetnyk
Main Astronomical Observatory, NAS of Ukraine,
Zabalotnoho 27, 03680, Kyiv, Ukraine
[...] We present a broad range of UAPs. We see them everywhere. We observe a
significant number of objects whose nature is not clear. Flights of single,
group and squadrons of the ships were detected, moving at speeds from 3 to
15 degrees per second. Some bright objects exhibit regular brightness
variability in the range of 10 - 20 Hz.  Two-site observations of UAPs at a
base of 120 km with two synchronised cameras allowed the detection of
a variable object, at an altitude of 1170 km. It flashes for one hundredth
of a second at an average of 20 Hz. [...]
An object contrast makes it possible to estimate the distance using
colourimetric methods.  [Objects with 0 albedo] are observed in the
troposphere at distances up to 10-12 km. We estimate their size from 3 to 12
meters and speeds up to 15 km/s. [...]
[Astronomers in Ukraine have undertaken their own independent survey
of objects they see flying over the Kyiv region at speeds around 15
km/sec.  They are watching the daytime sky at the zenith and in front
of the moon.  They see many objects -- some bright and some dark,
different sizes.  They travel often singly but sometimes in large
groups.  They report brightness is linked with speed. The spectrum
of bright objects is reportedly not reflected sunlight.  Objects
have been spotted inside the atm upto ~10 km but also out to ~1000 km
above the earth, travelling up to ~1000 km/sec.  They are not likely
anything sent by Russia or any other country].

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The quest to understand consciousness--a phenomenon as enigmatic as it
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In recent years, a once-fringe philosophical idea has experienced a
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This renewed interest stems from developments in neuroscience,
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that our current understanding of consciousness is far from complete.

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  Identification Program (AATIP), that was tasked with investigating reports
  of UFOs for the United States government. Elizondo has been ...