Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: why are some countries transparent on ufos and some not?

[uploaded 62 times; last 31/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We look at a metric that assesses the transparency of various govts
  to releasing information in regard to UFOs and related activity
- An AI program with limited reasoning abilities and access to a lot of
  data tries to create a simple/robust model that can explain the metric.
- The top national characteristics explain "a lot" of the
  country-to-country variation in the transparency metric.
- Using each model we can determine which groups have the most to lose
  or gain by maintaining secrecy or becoming more open on the issue.
  And weather or not the Big Report may try to masquerade as one thing
  but actually be another.


AI s/w is likely a prime example of the GIGO principle.  So you have
to be careful what you ask.

So I might be headed out onto a limb here and cutting it off behind me
by asking what factors make some countries adopt relatively open UFO
disclosure policies and some others not so much?

The conspiracy literature is full of this kind of discussion, but
there are ways to attack it logically. Much the same can be done to
look into similar questions regarding politically contentious issues
such as climate change (which is where some of this s/w originates and
has been used more or less successfully over the past 30y :).

But GIGO. How to frame the question so the answer is not so much
garbage but maybe just a bit noisy?

We first need to try to assess which countries *are* open and which
not transparent in releasing what UFO information that have.  Obviously
this is difficult. Governments change from time to time and they tend
to assess their own willingness to be transparent in a much rosier
light than they actually indent or do commit to.  You can't just take
their word for it. They might -- let's pretend this is totally a
fictional account -- release lots of seemingly interesting material on
the "strategic influence" basis of snowing the public into believing
they are being totally transparent, yet the "real" or other critical
information is not released for one or other reason. Knowing human
beings as we do a big part of that is inertia/laziness. But there is
always an argument there is an advantage of some kind to maintaining
an asymmetry of information. If something is secrete you can use that
to your advantage.

So I will list a number of countries and assess their openness on
UFO's from 0 to 1. In my first cut of this exercise I only had a list
of a half-dozen countries and graded them 0 and 1. And got some
interesting answers from the s/w. I then expanded the data to include
some "half" values for some other countries. And got much the same
answers from the s/w.  The list below is a 3rd cut.

You may disagree with my probably biased assessments. But the output
for my biased input gives a very interesting set of reasons for the
scores I assigned.

My assessments are based on nebulous ideas I've gleaned over the years
from reading newspapers and sometimes working in various countries in
more-or-less "secret" projects. Some of these were military-related.
Mostly they were scientific/engineering and a couple economic.  All
these areas have their secrets and you "get the vibe" of how the
respective govts handle information that can be used to various
advantages just by keeping your eyes and ears open.

But the numbers might be wrong in many respects.

If any gentle reader has some other opinion they can back up, or maybe
know or believe there is objective data that could determine "how
transparent" govt's in various countries are on UFO information,
please let me know. Otherwise I will just tend to bumble along and do
it myself. :)

The "openness" data I put into the s/w is as follows:

Country		HowOpenOnUFOS		FromPersonalExperience
australia	0			*
belgium		0.5
canada		0			*
china		1
denmark		1			*
finland		1
france		1
germany		0.5
italy		1
netherlands	0.5			*
norway		1			*
nz		1
russia		1
spain		1
sweden		1			*
uk		0
us		0			*

I've marked the countries where I've worked and have some idea, no
matter how nebulous and biased, how their govt's treat various kinds
of secrets that might show them up in a negative light.  You'll notice
Australia is marked relatively low -- i.e. 0 "not open".  Officials
like to think AUS is an open country and they express that view "all
the time", but I've found from sometimes bitter experience it is not
the case. Reinforcing that opinion I'll not that even now the govt
broadcaster is treating the Big UFO Report about to be released as a
big joke. For the past few years the various UFO disclosures and
Pentagon acks (perhaps part of a psyops program anyway) have not been
mentioned at all AFAIK. Seemingly part of govt if not editorial policy.

Anyway. We can put this little list into my s/w that has access to 10s
of 1000s of databases, and can download and setup new ones using Bing
and Google search anytime it likes, what kind of factors tend to
closely predict my "openness metric".

Here's the top 10 factors it says behave similarly. It doesn't take
much interpretation to decide which groups may have something to gain
from keeping UFO information secret and why. If you've read the
conspiracy blogs at all you may have come across the relevant ideas.
It seem a case where the craziest-sounding ideas actually have some
support in the "somewhat" objective data. :)

Top 10 results:

Code         R2              \beta +- 90% CI
wegy         0.76811542:     -0.20642 +- 0.102206 
mktcap       0.66274481:     -0.667662 +- 0.245049 
priwork      0.65152626:     -2.28217 +- 0.858731 
ind-tax      0.63352639:     0.686624 +- 0.268688 
lymph        0.55727877:     -0.312857 +- 0.297236 
colpro       0.55522595:     -0.102587 +- 0.0526253 
leuk         0.53307168:     -0.287561 +- 0.286873 
fossil       0.52268474:     -0.194245 +- 0.122038 
coal         0.50319713:     -0.233418 +- 0.119329 
tvown        0.49754161:     1.48555 +- 0.768092 
(All models fit the log of the code values to the transparency value).


The "R2" gives each predictive model's ability to predict the openness
number (from my table, above) from the relevant variable.

At the top is "wegy" -- the amount of waste material produced from
each country's energy industry.

Obviously certain energy sources create a lot more waste than others.

Amusingly I have touched on some of this before in relation to other
data that suggests UFO activity seems to concentrate on overflying
some countries more than others and which factors of those countries
seem to predict the amount of such activity.

The 2nd-place in the list is "market capitalization per capita".
Amazingly the UK has the highest "mkcap". Mental model: how much money
is at stake.  And there are conspiracy blogs that also claim a group
in the UK controls the release of UFO information world-wide.

The 3rd item is "workforce in the private sector". This is a percent
of the population. It seems the higher the workforce involved in the
private sector the more secretive the relevant govt is. Who knew?

At Number 4 is "indirect taxation". It seems the more
indirect tax citizens pay the more open their govt is (on UFO's).  
We can judge where this puts the US then.

Lymph and Leuk are the male rates of a couple cancers. The higher the
rates the less open the govts. Maybe "they" have something to hide about
workplace safety or environmental pollution, among other things.

Colpro and Fossil are obvious metrics for coal and fossil fuel usage
in each country. The more fossil/coal usage/production the more
secretive the govts.

And TVown is the% of households owning a TV. This data is from ~2000 &
before every household owned 10 TV's via laptops and cellphones.  The
countries with higher TVown turn out to be more transparent.  Harder
to hide things from the public, we assume.

So the overall pattern, no matter how flawed my "UFO transparency"
metric, suggests who might be gaining from UFO secrecy/suppression and
why. Some group has a lot to lose if high-tech objects are confirmed
to be flying around the skies and threatening to supersede key
technologies.  Maybe technologies that are already facing enough of a
threat from activists and winds of technology change.

As I said, it seems to partly confirm many seemingly outlandish ideas
circulating on various conspiracy blogs. Don't like it. But I don't
have to.  Reality can be like that and not all neatly wrapped up in a
pretty bow in the end like a Hollywood movie.

--
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