Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ufos seem to have a finger in many pies

[uploaded 42 times; last 17/10/2024]

In previous posts we've see how UFO activity -- e.g. sightings
reported to the NUFORC -- strongly correlates with various other
events like sightings of some lake monsters, US and UK missing persons
reports, cattle mutilation and other mass animal deaths.

We've seen e.g. lake monster sightings apparently correlate with UFO
sightings as well as with the distance to selected outer
planets. Typically, the closer Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are to earth
the larger the number of sightings of Nessie and Ogopogo.

The correlations were so strong (aka "statistically robust") in some
cases we suspect other unusual similar activity might also show the
same patterns. My little programs have lately dredged up sightings
data for Bigfoot (<http://bfro.net/gdb/>) and -- no real surprise --
the usual "list of suspects" shows up again as able to predict a good
chunk of the month-to-month sightings of Bigfoot at least across the
US. Again, an increase in certain UFO activity is statistically
associated with more Bigfoot sightings in the same month or a short
time later.  Interestingly, some types of UFO seem to relate to
"stirring up" more sightings of Bigfoot; others seem to quieten the
Big Guy down, for some reason.

And, again, the nearness or position of key outer planets predicts
Bigfoot sightings in the near future. The nearness of some are
associated with an increase in future sightings; the nearness of
others seems to be associated with a decrease in future sightings.
(And, of course, the inner planets and Jupiter show either no
statistical significant relation or only a very very weak
association).

As an example of what we've seen in other domains the distance of
planets to earth show the following correlations:

Planet		Lag	Filter		R2		beta +-90% CI
gavneptune	12	o1		0.45151445	-2.41114 +- 0.284449
gavuranus	12	o1		0.34346585	-2.04395 +- 0.302476
gavsaturn	12	o1		0.14738520	1.21212 +- 0.312054
gavpluto	3	o1		0.10487505	-0.590956 +- 0.185583

The "gav" prefix means the s/w found the largest R2 (best explanation
power) occurred when a running average was applied to the distance
between the earth and the planet (measured in AU). It's not enough for
the planet to be closer to relate to more Bigfoot sightings in the
future, it has to stay around there for some time to have the largest
effect.

The Lags show how many months lag between the curve of the planetary
distance and monthly Bigfoot sightings showed the largest R2. The
"filter" column says how many outliers were discarded to produce the
best explanatory model. "O1" means 25% of the data furthest from the
relevant trend lines were ignored -- usually 15% way greater than the
trendline and 15% furthest below the trendline.

The R2 shows the percent of variations in month-to-month Bigfoot
sightings are predicted by the relevant planetary distance. I.e. the
month to month changes in averaged distance between Earth and Neptune
matches up with about 45% of the month to month sightings in Bigfoot
12m later.

The "beta" column shows the multiplier in the relationship.  -ve betas
mean closer planet associated with more sightings.  So if Neptune
moves 1 AU closer to Earth at some point the stats finds there should
be around 2.4 more Bigfoot sightings same time next y.  Uranus is
associated with 2 more. Pluto with around 0.6 more.  But Saturn is
associated with 1.2 less.

A simple-minded mental model might presume something coming from
Saturn on its closes approaches to Earth suppresses Bigfoot activity
while the other 3 outer (dwarf-)planets stir up more activity.

We've seen all this before in almost every activity we've so far
linked with UFO's. Some UFO's stir up other things; some suppress the
same things. It's like there are at least two camps in UFO world and
they have opposing views on "many" questions. We might presume also
even within the one camp there are bound to be a range of behaviours;
we have to stop thinking of the phenomenon as monolithic. And we also
have to be careful not to fall into black & white good/bad thinking as well.

So it seems lake monsters (at least the ones we can find good data
for) and Bigfoot, as well as other events like cattle mutilations and
missing persons are all interlinked. Many paranormal investigators
link up almost all unusual activity into a single phenomenon, and this
is very very tempting. Classical science is very big on assuming 2
odd things are caused by the same factor to simplify the overall
explanation.

But that's not what I'm interested in in this overall study.  I'm
interested in "automated" science that might be carried out by AI's.
In that context there is no need to keep things simple for a dumb
human. The system can keep track of all the details, posit a very very
very large number of theories that link up all the known observations
and other facts (e.g. basic laws of physics) and determine a likelihood
each theory might be true based on how well it fits all the evidence.
As new evidence comes in the "best theory" might change from time to
time.  Scientists wouldn't like that. That's why they tend to debunk
new ideas as hard as possible -- to prevent anything upsetting the
previous apple cart when, in fact, the new idea might seem like a good
idea at the time it was proposed but later it's found to have serious
or even minor holes.

In a "new science" we just accept everything MIGHT be true but some
things are more likely to be true; and that changes from instant to
instant (just ask the AI for a report this hour on what is probably true :).

This is all great for a piece of s/w that has tons of GPU's to play
with an TB of high speed disk space. But at some point the AI will
have to convince someone that is not entirely across all the data and
nuances of the various interrelationships that what it says is likely
to be the case *is* a sensible argument.

Trying to present a convincing summary of what an AI knows is another
hot area of current research.

And my very minor contribution here is to propose one simple paradigm
that can be easy for people to understand yet encompass a load of
nuance -- conservation laws.

A conservation law posits that some quantity is a constant or near
constant.  The total energy of a closed system is conserved. If one
type of energy in the system is seen to increase we know that other
forms of energy in the system must correspondingly decrease and if
they don't the system is not closed after all.

Conservation laws allow any schmo to make predictions about complex
systems without needing to understand very much about the problem at all.

So let's look for a simple conservation law that links up UFO activity
and "several" of the other phenomena is seems to be associated
with. We shall see there are some interesting insights that follow on.

We can set the s/w a little task of finding a predictive model that
links UFO sightings month to month against the SUM of various other
quantities. We tell it we're looking for a sum that seems to vary
little across all the instances it can find when UFO sightings were
at a given level. If the sum contains 3 variables A, B, and C we can
then say for a given level of UFO activity A+B+C must be around
such-and-such a value, and if A increases by some amount then B+C
and likely B *and* C must decrease by the same amount.

After some churning the s/w spits out one such conservation law its
various metrics point to as being "good". It has a high R2, seems
intuitive for people, and captures a few of the relevant phenomena
all in one little formula.

The "law" it found was:

US missing people + UK missing people + AUS missing people + number of
UK crop circles + number of Bigfoot sightings is roughly conserved
and depends "only" on UFO sightings 24 months previously.

The exact details of the evidence to support this model are not
terribly important here. Suffice it to say the s/w finds the model
explains ~53% of the month-to-month variations in the SUM of the
variables in question with the monthly UFO sightings 2y earlier.  2
statistics tests validate the model at 99% certainty.  I.e. we can be
roughly sure the observed relationship has only 1 chance in 10,000 of
being down to luck alone.

We see from the SUM we have a law that relates to "capacity
constraints".  It seems a certain level of UFO activity can only
tolerate a certain level of the SUM of the other things -- missing
person reports in 3 countries, Bigfoot sightings, crop circles.  If
UFO sightings go up in one month then around 2y later the limit can
increase. Otherwise if one form of activity increases the others must
collectively decrease to match.

If UFO activity is associated with certain types of missing person
reports in the US, then when those reports go up in the US they must
collectively go down in the UK and AUS. We might exact this for AUS
which is in the other hemisphere -- there might be a seasonal pattern
to missing person reports -- but it's "interesting" we have a
cross-hemisphere link between the US+UK and AUS.

Such conservation laws/capacity constraints suggest that UFO activity
in not based on an infinite capacity to influence other events.  It is
somewhat limited. Perhaps this limit changes from time to time.  But
at present (upto 2020 when the last data for the various phenomena
were recorded in my database) if UFO activity increases by 1 stddev
above its previous level then the sum of the other variables increase
only around 0.3 stddevs. This turns out to be "very constrained". The
cusp between constrained and unconstrained is closer to 5.0.

We have seen there seems to be evidence of opposing goals within the
UFO activities. Maybe the unexpectedly low value means the "good guys"
are winning out over the "bad guys" given humanity associates people
going missing and attacks on cattle negatively.

Of course there is also the possibility that Bigfoot might be
associated with some of these negative events. But the form of the
conservation law posits that, overall, it's related to UFO activity
and the months with larger Bigfoot sightings are generally associated
with lower missing person reports and cattle mutilations.

But if you are ever in a situation where a big black hairy thing is
following you through the woods, and has hidden behind a tree and
started to grown ominously, don't take it for granted you are totally safe.


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