Newsgroups: alt.paranet.ufo,alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: NAZI UFO's

[uploaded 38 times; last 20/10/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Patterns relating weather conditions in Antarctica and frequency of
  UFO sightings 1900-1999 suggest "something" changed around 1950.
- Rather than supporting the idea that the correlation between
  Antarctic weather and UFO sightings increased suddenly around the
  end of WWII, perhaps because escaped Nazi scientists set up a base
  on the continent, the data suggests patterns that had been in
  operation 1900-1950 suddenly stopped and were replaced by "quieter"
  relationships between sightings and more remote areas of the
  continent and nearby deep ocean.

In prev posts I've looked at how the e.g. spacial distribution of UFO
sightings can hint at properties of the underlying phenomena.  E.g. we
can determine that ufo sightings in the US seem to be influenced by
the placement of military bases, particularly AFB.  Different "types"
of UFO almost all seem to fall off in density toward larger
concentrations of AFB. Some objects fall off in proportion to the
distance from concentrations of AFB, some fall off faster, some slower.

But now let's look at the *time* distribution of sightings and see if
we can answer an old question -- are UFO's operated by Nazi scientists
who escaped Germany toward the end of WWII and set up shop at some
base in Antarctica?

Some simple twiddling will confirm there is some kind of affinity
between monthly UFO sightings and conditions in the Antarctic.  Some
of the relevant "explanation powers" (R2) are reasonably large.  The
exact chain of causation is ambiguous and can range from weather
conditions created in the SoPo blowing debris around the US that are
mistaken for strange objects in the sky, through some kind of aircraft
based in Antarctica travel more readily between there and the Americas
depending on "local" weather conditions.

To answer the Nazi UFO question we need to look at how the correlation
between Antarctica-related weather and UFO sightings changed over the
20th century. Was there some change around WWII and, if so, does it
suggest UFO's started to originate from Antarctica? Or does something
else seem to have happened?

To fill in some more background that might influence the reader's
thinking we need to note that rumours of an Antarctic Nazi base
started to circulate shortly after Germany lodged a claim for part of
the continent during the 30s. After invading parts of Scandinavia the
Nazi govt attempted to annexe part of Norway's claim to Antarctica. 
After the war both the UK and US sent military expeditions down there
to check the rumors out. I'm not familiar with all the ins and outs
but some of what I've read indicate both expeditions tended to
concentrate on the Antarctic Peninsula presumably given its relative
proximity to S America (perhaps in particular Argentina).

So given all these various nebulous facts, what do we expect?  
If water temperatures off the Antarctic coast seem to predict UFO
sightings in the US over the 20th cent, do we expect this relationship
increased suddenly around the end of WWII or do we expect it decreased?

I would argue if UFO's are supposed to originate at a base in
Antarctica set up in the 1940s and operating ever since then we should
*expect* the correlation between conditions in the Antarctic and UFO
sightings e.g. in the US should suddenly have increased around the end
of WWII.  Maybe they rose and fell a bit since then, but there should
be a much higher correlation after the "setup of the base" than beforehand.

Given the paucity of some of the data below it all has to be handled
very carefully we don't introduce any biases. I use a s/w package that
tries to "homogenise" (i.e. remove bias) from data its given using
various mostly simple techniques. Using the UFO sighting data from the
NUFORC database it took the monthly numbers from 1900-2000 and
"ironed" them to account for changes in US population, changes in
methodology, and missing data (which predominantly lives in the period
1900-1950 in this exercise).

Missing data in particular is a worry. There are numerous methods to
estimate missing data. But we can't use them here.  "Guessing" at data
that is otherwise missing will tend to introduce noise and make
correlations smaller. If there is more missing data in the 1900-50
period than in the 1950-2000 period then we are biasing the result --
we are reducing the correlations for the 1st 1/2 of the 20th cent in
relation to those in the 2nd half.  And this would give us a false result.

So the s/w does not estimate missing values at all. It only uses the
numbers we have measured. And this in itself leads to more
complications for statistical tests, but the s/w is supposed to be
able to handle that.

So the table we get is thus:

data            correlation (R2) between data and NUFORC monthly ufo sightings
                c20             1930-50         1950-70
ocean-60dep1000 0.0368426       nil             0.164162	*
ant160          0.0316147       0.107255        0.0693065
ant140          0.0276233       0.833305        0.0843708
lat-80          0.0271078       0.29937         0.00621208
arc-90          0.0267563       nil             0.00938717	*
ant150          0.0264957       0.097701        0.0813875
ant130          0.0253734       0.128925        0.042244
ocean-80dep0    0.0251416       nil             0.00988108	*
ant170          0.022851        0.16174         0.0561528
stormseg-90     0.0221058       0.0888908       0.00833896
ant-160         0.0219791       0.175104        0.0156734
ant-150         0.0217034       0.205564        0.0188159
ant-170         0.0185683       0.206246        0.0181962
arc-80          0.0183147       nil             0.029617	*
ant-10          0.017503        0.0637775       nil
ant100          0.0173873       0.122475        0.0186838
ant60           0.0169002       0.086368        0.0223843
ant-180         0.01664         0.233454        0.0217722
ant0            0.016411        0.0676842       nil
ant-140         0.0160485       0.232104        0.0155224
ant10           0.0160342       0.0879714       0.00575712
ocean-70dep1000 0.0157767       0.0860524       0.0153943
ant40           0.0155558       nil             0.0338617	*
ocean-60dep0    0.0152184       nil             0.0131574	*
lat-70          0.0145588       0.124074        0.0213232
ant90           0.01445         0.0931583       0.0415367
ant-20          0.0142866       0.0805802       0.00665689
ocean-60dep10   0.0140117       nil             0.00841425	*
ant80           0.0134908       0.0701346       0.0262705
ant110          0.0133603       0.122092        0.0215954
ant-130         0.0133318       0.215073        0.0135993
ant20           0.013225        0.122794        0.0113221
ant-80          0.0129412       0.158483        0.0092757
ocean-70dep1    0.012267        nil             0.0123914	*
ant30           0.0120639       0.0949931       0.0158063
ant50           0.0120521       0.0425647       0.0297215
ocean-70dep500  0.0119995       0.131864        0.0203876
ant70           0.0116919       0.0870348       0.0457576
ant-60          0.0111165       0.0735285       0.00950991
ant-90          0.0110735       0.159349        0.0083488
ant120          0.0108312       0.17607         0.00855441
ant-120         0.0100638       0.188241        nil

The first column gives the code name of the dataset. E.g.  the first
one "ocean-60dep100" comes from the World Ocean Database.  This is the
collection of "bottle records" from the 19th cent.  Every time some
ship threw a bucket or bottle over the side and sampled water it
eventually made it to this database.  The data we're using here is for
latitudes 60S to 70S and depths 100m and deeper.

So the first line says water below 100m roughly around the Antarctic
coast has a temperature that somehow predicts monthly UFO
sightings. Over the 20th cent it doesn't predict UFO sightings very
well. The 2nd column says only about 4% of the month-to-month wiggling
in UFO sightings data corresponds with a similar wiggle in the
Antarctic water temperature data.  If may not explain the other 96% of
the UFO sightings but the s/w ensures we are quite certain it is there.

But, interestingly, we see that while the correlation (R2) over the
20th cent is about 4%, the data from 1900-1950 is "nil".  There is
data for this period but there is no statistically relevant
relationship between the water temps and UFO sightings for this
period. Somehow roughly around 1950 the last column shows a 16%
correlation "suddenly" turned up.  Up to 1950 nothing. After 1950
something.

Maybe the Nazi UFO theory is shaping up!

But if we look down the table we find the pattern of a correlation
starting up around 1950 is very much the exception.  Most
correlations "suddenly" go quiet around 1950.

E.g. the data series coded "lat-80". This data comes from the ERSSTv5
dataset and records surface ocean temperatures around the world since
~1850. The "-80" signifies the data selected is for lat
80S-90S. Mostly this is water around the Ant Pen.  In other locations
the Antarctic coast or ice shelf goes out to ~60S and there is no sea
surface there.

So this line in the table shows from 1900-1950 there is a 30%
correlation with UFO sightings. Around 1950 it suddenly seems to fall
off a cliff and go to almost 0 (less than 1%).

The lines marked with a (*) are the only cases where the correlation
increased after 1950. The others show significant -- sometimes VERY
significant -- declines in R2.

Taken overall it's almost as if "activity" suddenly stopped around
1950 at many locations around the Antarctic and "moved" to other
locations. If you look at where the correlations started up it seems
those locations are "more remote" than the ones that were active
before 1950.

E.g. before 1950 ant140 -- changes in Antarctic sea surface
temperature between longitudes 140E and 150E -- preceded changes in
UFO sightings in the US more than 80% of the time. After 1950 that
dropped to just 8% of the time.

Around the same time water temperature around the Antarctic coast
below 1000m that previously had not correlated with UFO sightings at
all "suddenly" correlated with (or predicted) UFO sightings 16% of the time.

Similarly, activity that previous has been around the Antarctic Pen
seems to have declined but started further inland or "moved" to East
Antarctica.

The overall pattern seems less consistent with something "starting up"
around 1950 and more consistent with the idea that something moved
from where it had been operating from at least 1900 "somewhere else"
after something turned up on their doorstep around the end of WWII.

Of course the doctors all say I'm crazy so take all this with a grain
of salt until you checked it yourself. :)

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