Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: Nevada, ufo activity and US military spending

[uploaded 53 times; last 17/10/2024]

I'll put all the boring numbers at the bottom for people that like to
check whether someone's claims are in fact supported by a slew of evidence.


In science no one takes anyone's word for anything.  You are supposed
to go out yourself, gather some evidence, analyze it, and draw conclusions.

In this case almost by definition the US military is involved in
numerous "conspiracies". It's only a matter of which ones it's
involved in.  Official statements recently admitted the Pentagon has been
misleading the public about the existence of UFO's for at least the past 70y.
IOW a conspiracy.

We can look at the various data to see whether UFO activity is or has been
tracked by the US military. And -- surprise -- yes.
We can check whether some part of US military spending seems to rise
and fall in parallel with some types of UFO sightings.
IOW can we find evidence that the US military itself "might" be
involved in the development of some kind of aircraft that (at least
superficially) could be mistaken for various types of UFO's.
We can also test whether Nevada in particular is perhaps at the centre
of some kind of UFO activity. And -- surprise again -- the data says yes.

And pretty much we knew this all going in even for mundane reasons of
partly-acked-over-the-years conventional weapons development.

With sufficient even simple data probably already in the public domain
we might even establish whether any of this hidden military activity
might be associated with aircraft that are highly unusual --
i.e. don't have conventional lifting surfaces or engines and has
hypersonic or high-G performance.

One set of evidence I can produce is that Nevada seems to be "at the
centre" of certain kinds of UFO observations.

We can plot the frequency of various kinds of UFO reports (I allays
prefer the NUFORC dataset because of transparency) versus the distance
away from some presumed center of the activity. If it drops off
e.g. in a curve like 1/r^2 then we have evidence -- but of course not
proof -- that the suspected center of activity is, in fact, a center
of activity. It's hard to credit that the "sighting density" of
e.g. Triangle UFO's could drop off at ~1/r^2 from Nevada unless they
at least sometimes "originate" from somewhere in the state.

Another set of evidence compares US military spending (adjusted for
inflation) versus subsequent activity of each type of UFO.  When
spending goes up does activity of e.g. black Triangles/Spheres go up
say 2 or 3 years later, and fall again 2-3 years after military
spending falls?  Repeatedly over 20-70 years? If it does it's hard not
to credit this with programs that develop aircraft that can be ID-ed
as e.g. Triangles or Spheres.

Together, these lines of evidence seem to suggest certain aircraft are
being developed by the US military and e.g. test flown out of bases in
Nevada (and elsewhere).

Where the technology originally came from is anyone's guess. :)


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Sample evidence 1. Reports of UFO "Spheres" seem to follow US military
spending (in real terms) about 2-3 years later over at least the
period 2006-2021 (the period comes from the NUFORC web-reporting form;
this period is not directly comparable with pre-2006 reports that came
from telephone or letters).

y = 279.271*x + -945.592
beta in 279.271 +- 39.1018   90% CI
alpha in -945.592 +- 189.127
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
Rank test: Spearman corr > critical value at 1% sig: reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.93104994

Data:
Year			US Mil spend   Number of   Number of sightings
			(%gdp adj cpi)  "Sphere"   predicted from model
					sightings
2006                      4.21          216      230.139
2019                      4.34          325      266.445*(model 1sd too low)
2018                      4.39          226      280.408*(+1)
2007                      4.44          284      294.372
2009                       4.5          336      311.128
2010                      4.52          331      316.713
2017                      4.56          378      327.884*(-1)
2008                       4.6          331      339.055
2016                      4.88          355      417.251*(+1)
2011                      4.96          431      439.593
2015                      5.18          460      501.032*(+1)
2012                       5.5          637      590.399*(-1)
2013                      5.65          615       632.29
2014                      5.65          654       632.29

The regression takes US military spending as% GDP adjusted for
inflation and compares against "Sphere" reports to the NUFORC 3y
later.  The 3y is determined by search that maximizes the R2 value
("explanation power").

The model is highly significant using 2 different stats tests.  There
is roughly 1 chance in 1000 this link could just happen by chance.

The model explains the majority of year-to-year variation in Sphere
sightings 2006-2021 (according to the R2 stats).

For each 1% of additional real GDP spend during the period a
corresponding 279+-39 (90% confidence interval) sightings occurred 3y later.
This seems consistent with "spheres" being developed over 3y from
additional military spending.  They seem to cost a lot. :)


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Sample evidence 2: Approx UFO activity around Nevada over the period
1940-2021 follows militry spending.

We can take the totality of UFO activity reported in Nevada (one of
the lowest-pop-density states) and neighbouring states over the period
and see whether this rises and falls with US real military spending 2
years earlier.  (This 2y is determined by a search of the lags looking
to maximize the R2 "explanation power" statistic).

While there is some quibble about the spikes related to WWII, Korea
and other hot conflicts, the overall pattern again shows there is a
statistically-strong relationship between military spending and
reported UFO activity in the whole region.

Durbin-Watson d = 1.014188
d < dL (1.598421):  Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial Corr Detected; estimated rho = 0.488494).
y = 0.256395*x + 12.7833
beta in 0.256395 +- 0.264478
alpha in 12.7833 +- 1.77575
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.944704
Rank test: Spearman corr > critical value at 5% sig: reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.03701032

Data:
Year		US mil spend 	Pct UFO's reported	Model predicted
		%GDP adj inf    in NV and adj states    pct sightings
1930                      1.31            0      13.1192**(model 2sd too high)
1932                      1.59            0       13.191**
1936                      1.62            0      13.1987**
1940                      1.89            0      13.2679**
1942                      2.26            0      13.3627**
1939                      2.32            0      13.3781**
1934                      2.81            0      13.5038**
1938                      3.13            0      13.5858**
2001                      3.46      19.4444      13.6704
2003                      3.46      19.9115      13.6704
2002                       3.5      18.8679      13.6807
2000                      3.56       21.097      13.6961*(model 1sd too low)
1999                      3.79      20.6731       13.755*(-1)
2004                      3.86      20.1893       13.773*(-1)
1998                      3.92      15.1376      13.7884
1997                      4.27      26.2976      13.8781*(-1)
1996                      4.62      21.3542      13.9678*(-1)
1995                      5.02      16.1435      14.0704
1993                       5.2      22.2973      14.1165*(-1)
1994                      5.35      21.5385       14.155*(-1)
1981                      5.47      22.1154      14.1858*(-1)
1980                      5.57      19.8413      14.2114
1992                      5.74       19.697       14.255
1979                      5.84      15.4362      14.2806
1982                      5.88      16.4948      14.2909
1983                      6.04      11.7117      14.3319
1991                      6.08      16.9492      14.3422
1943                      6.09            0      14.3447**(+2)
1978                      6.11      17.2589      14.3499
1990                      6.31           25      14.4011*(-1)
1976                      6.37      14.7239      14.4165
1975                      6.51      13.4831      14.4524
1977                      6.54       10.828      14.4601
1989                       6.6       18.705      14.4755
1984                      6.63       13.253      14.4832
1986                      6.66      15.5963      14.4909
1985                      6.79      16.0305      14.5242
1987                       6.8      14.1732      14.5268
1988                      6.85      15.5405      14.5396
1974                       7.4      10.3448      14.6806
1950                      7.79      26.9231      14.7806*(-1)
1973                      7.97      11.4504      14.8268
1967                       8.3      17.8571      14.9114
1968                      8.56      13.6364       14.978
1972                      8.82      15.2174      15.0447
1971                      9.31      18.8406      15.1703
1966                      9.55      13.3929      15.2319
1969                      9.74       12.766      15.2806
1951                     10.02           20      15.3524
1970                     10.02      11.9565      15.3524
1965                     10.08         12.5      15.3678
1949                     10.09       9.0909      15.3703
1964                     10.53      14.0625      15.4831
1953                     10.54            0      15.4857**(-2)
1952                     10.63      17.3913      15.5088
1962                      11.4      12.8205      15.7062
1963                     11.61      13.0435        15.76
1961                     12.18      11.4286      15.9062
1958                     12.43       16.129      15.9703
1959                     12.55           20      16.0011
1960                     12.77      23.6842      16.0575*(-1)
1957                     13.11      15.1515      16.1446
1956                     16.23      16.6667      16.9446
1954                     16.81      29.1667      17.0933*(-1)
1955                      17.4      13.0435      17.2446
1944                     18.15      14.2857      17.4369
1948                     23.41      22.2222      18.7855
1945                     37.44      33.3333      22.3827*(-1)
1946                     40.07      14.2857       23.057*(+1)
1947                     41.52       7.1429      23.4288**(+2)

The model is statistically robust but only explains about 3% (the R2)
of all UFO sightings around NV in the past 70 years. There is liable
to be more than just the one reason for variation in UFO sightings.  
But the stats is quite certain using 2 tests that there is a link between
US military spending and UFO sightings around Nevada over the past 70y.

For each 1% of real US mil spending the activity nr Nevada as a
percent of all sightings in the year increases about .26 points. 
More military spending seems to be associated with a higher
proportion of sightings specifically in NV and adjacent states; a
decline in real spending is assoc with a fall in such sightings.

Several other UFO types follow the same pattern. Some UFO types follow
no such pattern indicating they may be "outside the system" being considered.


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Sample evidence 3: The spacial distribution of some UFO activity
around Nevada seems to implicate the state as the "origin" of some of it.

We can take the total sightings of each type of UFO in states across
the US and calculate whether there is some kind of curve that
beyond-statistical-doubt explains the further away from (specifically)
Nevada the lower the density of such sightings. If some such types of
UFO are found we might suspect they are being flown out of bases in Nevada.

y = 5.983 * x^-0.269607
beta in -0.269607 +- 0.0571731
alpha in 1.78892 +- 0.450733
T-test: P(beta<0.000000) = 1.000000
Rank test: Spearman corr > critical value at 1% sig: reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.45467464

Data:
State		 approx dist from NV Disk sightings  Model-predicted
			(km)         (per mn cap)    disk sightings per mn cap
California                383.697      0.73062      1.20298**(2s too high)
Utah                      614.266     0.890111      1.05964
Idaho                     708.029      1.28906      1.01983*(-1)
Arizona                   819.383      1.13258     0.980446
Oregon                    879.911      1.25756     0.961787*(-1)
Washington                1111.59      1.23658      0.90305*(-1)
Wyoming                   1200.67     0.796271     0.884476
Montana                   1206.67      1.22629     0.883288*(-1)
Colorado                  1311.17      1.05071     0.863729
South.Dakota              2065.41     0.854195     0.764137
Kansas                     2255.7     0.549518     0.746194*(+1)
Oklahoma                   2264.6     0.596548     0.745403*(+1)
Iowa                      2683.44     0.597555     0.712067
Minnesota                 2700.34     0.655786     0.710863
Missouri                  2755.01     0.909533     0.707032*(-1)
Arkansas                  2773.11     0.671546     0.705785
Wisconsin                 3118.69     0.542907     0.683787*(+1)
Illinois                  3128.53     0.570241     0.683206
Tennessee                 3384.45     0.676742     0.668876
Indiana                   3429.38      0.77546     0.666502
Kentucky                  3605.19     0.813542     0.657578*(-1)
Michigan                  3655.54     0.517335     0.655124*(+1)
Georgia                   3764.15     0.515592     0.649973*(+1)
Ohio                      3818.61     0.487944     0.647461*(+1)
West.Virginia             4012.91     0.686883     0.638855
South.Carolina            4052.21     0.708047     0.637179
Florida                   4101.87     0.700499      0.63509
North.Carolina            4149.43     0.690375     0.633119
Virginia                   4320.3     0.644161     0.626268
Pennsylvania               4430.7     0.604046     0.622022
District.of.Columbia      4450.94     0.495814     0.621258*(+1)
Maryland                   4477.4     0.588256     0.620266
Delaware                  4619.54     0.704806     0.615062
New.York                  4700.64     0.521995     0.612183
New.Jersey                4734.71     0.602812     0.610992
Hawaii                    4879.64     0.698518     0.606045
Connecticut               4936.43     0.779752     0.604158*(-1)
Massachusetts             5078.25     0.667209     0.599562

This model suggests at least some Disk UFO's are flown out of bases in
Nevada.

The model is not even close to the expected 1/r2 law. But it does show
the further away from Nevada (specifically) the lower the density (per
mn capita relevant state population) of Disk UFO sightings.

Doubling the distance from Nevada approx reduces Disk sighting density
by a factor of 17%.

Both statistical tests used are 99% sure the relationship is not just
due to chance.  It explains about 45% (the R2) of the state-to-state
variation in Disk sightings (per mn cap).

Several other UFO types follow the same pattern. Some UFO types follow
no such pattern indicating they may be "outside the system" being
considered.


--
DoD Announces the Establishment of the Airborne Object Identification and
Management Synch
Dept of Defense, 24 Nov 2021

  Pentagon Forms a Group to Examine Unexplained Aerial Sightings [aka UFOs]
  The New York Times, 24 Nov 2021 19:47Z
  [The last 70y just flew by, thinking about it!]

Pentagon forms task force to probe UFO presence in restricted areas
Daily Sabah, 24 Nov 2021 09:57Z
The United States Dept of Defense late on Tue said it will
establish a new group to investigate reports on the ...
[The move has been described by some reports as a kind of preemptive
strike against proposed legislation to setup such a group under
control of the Congress].

  Pentagon launching new UFO investigation unit, replacing Navy group: report
  Fox News, 24 Nov 2021 09:57Z
  The federal govt is embarking on a new attempt to explain the
  unexplainable. The Defense Dept is launching the ...

  Pentagon announces plans to streamline UFO reports and analysis
  CNN, 23 Nov 2021 23:54Z
  The Dept of Defense announced its plans to streamline the collection
  and analysis of UFO reports across the govt ...

`This is urgent': Bipartisan proposal for UFO office pushes new boundaries
Politico, 18 Nov 2021