Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: ghosts and ufos (and Dyatlov Pass) -- likely related

[uploaded 28 times; last 05/10/2024]

At one point I was twiddling with the various datasets I have.  I
compared the NUFORC database and a paranormal ("ghost") database
available online. And they seemed to have no easy to see correlation.

But I've recently digitised NICAP's database from the 19th cent to
2008 and compared that with the ghost database that likewise goes back
to the 19th cent (and even further, sporadically).

And suddenly there is a YUGE -ve correlation.

It's as if both UFO's as captured by NICAP and ghosts as reported in
the UK database are 2 faces of the same phenomenon -- like an Internet
troll using 2 nyms. They either post under (random example) "dimwit"
or "oneball". On some days they use one nym; on some days the other. A
negative correlation.  They tend not to use both on the same day
because people might spot it's the same person.

The output from a basic time series regression (i.e. adjusting for any
positive correlation that may erroneously lead to a conclusion 2
unrelated things are actually related) finds there is high confidence
in 2 different stats tests (a T-test on the beta and a non-parametric
rank test comparing the ordering of the X's and the ordering of the
Y's) both find a -ve corr to high significance.

And this is on a day by day comparison of the 2 datasets.  Any day
that saw neither a ghost report nor a UFO report to NICAP is left out
of the run. Other missing values are recoded to "0".  And then 1 is
added to both Xs and Ys so the logs can be taken to produce a "power
law" model.

The output is too large to reproduce here, but a ransom sample of the
lines of the regr result looks like:


Date(day)                   #ufos(NICAP)  #ghosts(UK)  Power model
1909.350                        1            2      1.89255
1919.975                        1            2      1.89255
1934.246                        2            1      1.09623
1941.257                        2            1      1.09623
1944.429                        2            1      1.09623
1945.104                        3            1     0.796488**
1946.579                        3            1     0.796488**
1948.516                        2            1      1.09623
1949.415                        2            1      1.09623
1950.014                        2            1      1.09623
1950.167                        2            1      1.09623
1950.183                        2            1      1.09623
1952.180                        2            1      1.09623
1952.262                        2            1      1.09623
1952.418                        3            1     0.796488**
1952.587                        3            1     0.796488**
1953.167                        3            1     0.796488**
1953.172                        3            1     0.796488**
1954.008                        3            1     0.796488**
1954.505                        2            1      1.09623
1954.596                        2            1      1.09623
1954.680                        2            1      1.09623
1954.781                        1            2      1.89255
1955.265                        2            1      1.09623
1955.686                        2            1      1.09623
1956.087                        3            1     0.796488**
1957.585                        2            1      1.09623
1958.107                        2            1      1.09623
1958.587                        2            1      1.09623
1959.008                        2            1      1.09623
1959.093                        2            1      1.09623
1965.503                        2            1      1.09623
1965.598                        2            1      1.09623
1967.516                        2            1      1.09623
1969.423                        2            1      1.09623
1975.339                        2            1      1.09623
1976.014                        2            1      1.09623
1976.257                        2            1      1.09623
1976.421                        2            1      1.09623
1977.426                        2            1      1.09623
1977.516                        2            1      1.09623
1980.251                        2            1      1.09623
1981.984                        1            2      1.89255
1984.178                        2            1      1.09623
1985.208                        1            2      1.89255
1994.090                        2            1      1.09623
2002.527                        1            2      1.89255
2006.295                        1            2      1.89255
2007.301                        1            2      1.89255
2008.019                        2            1      1.09623
2009.066                        1            2      1.89255
2009.295                        1            2      1.89255
2009.626                        1            2      1.89255
2009.770                        1            2      1.89255
2011.227                        1            2      1.89255
2011.270                        1            2      1.89255
2012.779                        1            2      1.89255
2016.943                        1            2      1.89255
2018.036                        1            2      1.89255
2018.798                        1            2      1.89255
2019.948                        1            2      1.89255
2021.240                        1            2      1.89255
(Real output has almost 1000 lines, above).

MODEL:
y = 1.89255430e+00 * x^-7.87785538e-01
beta in -0.787786 +- 0.0151941 90% CI
alpha in 0.637927 +- 0.00986583 
T-test: P(beta<0) = 1.000000
Rank rest: calculated Spearman corr = -0.332531
	crit val 2s sig 5% = .306 therefore reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.88134698


Note the incredibly large R2! Around 90% of ghost sightings in the UK
over the period seem to be related to UFO sightings in the US.  And
vice versa.

The X and Y columns have 1 added to them so the logs don't screw up.
We can see there are an apparent random distribution of days with
{1,2,3} sightings of UFOS and ghosts. But they are very highly -ve
correlated. The sum tends to be 3 very much more often than it should
be by chance.

It seems we are not dealing with 2 different things, but aspects of
the same thing.

Yea yea yea. Half the people working in this area for the past 50y
know that. This is just statistical evidence that it is stoopendously
true.

And as a 2nd discovery that just hit me between the eyes, I saw Josh
Gates "Expedition" to the Dyatlov Pass (named after one of the dead
hikers) over the past couple days.  They went through all of the
interesting details and seemed to rule out almost all
possibilities. The last 2 on their list they couldn't cross off were
mundane things like severe weather but one thing brought up by one of
the researchers that went on the expedition also seemed possible --
the group was driven mad by chemical weapons tested in the area at
the time.

While the segment ended with new Russian documents that indicated the
authorities knew about the deaths of the hikers at Dyatlov more than a
week before the history books say they set out to *discover* what had
happened to them after they were overdue back at their college, the
whole thing again got me to thinking what could a data science based
approach throw up.

And I suddenly thought to get out all my data that could possibly line
up with the date of the incident -- somewhere between 1 and 2 of Feb 1959.

The first thing I tried yielded a BOING. I added up all the paranormal
events I keep from a dozen different groups day by day. UFO sightings, 
of course.  Nessie sightings. Ghost sightings. Some cryptid sightings
that go back to 1900.

And I looked at the total number of such odd events between 1958 and
1960 for each day.

I must reproduce it here at length, gentle reader, to impart the full impact:

Date(day)  #weirdevents
1958.587 4	&&&&
1958.590 1
1958.593 1
1958.607 1
1958.609 1
1958.620 1
1958.623 1
1958.658 1
1958.664 3
1958.667 3
1958.669 1
1958.675 3
1958.678 3
1958.680 3
1958.683 2
1958.686 1
1958.689 1
1958.694 2
1958.699 1
1958.716 1
1958.719 1
1958.724 1
1958.730 1
1958.740 1
1958.746 3
1958.749 3
1958.751 1
1958.757 1
1958.760 1
1958.762 2
1958.768 1
1958.770 1
1958.773 1
1958.779 1
1958.784 1
1958.790 1
1958.811 1
1958.814 1
1958.817 1
1958.820 1
1958.828 2
1958.831 3
1958.833 2
1958.836 1
1958.839 1
1958.844 1
1958.847 1
1958.850 1
1958.863 1
1958.880 1
1958.883 2
1958.885 1
1958.954 1
1958.997 0.0322581
1959.000 1
1959.003 1
1959.008 2
1959.014 1
1959.016 1
1959.019 2
1959.027 1
1959.033 1
1959.038 2
1959.044 1
1959.077 1
1959.085 1
1959.087 4	&&&&	<-- 1 Feb 1959
1959.093 1
1959.096 1
1959.104 1
1959.107 2
1959.109 1
1959.120 1
1959.123 1
1959.126 1
1959.137 1
1959.139 1
1959.142 2
1959.148 2
1959.167 1
1959.169 1
1959.172 1
1959.175 1
1959.178 1
1959.180 1
1959.186 1
1959.191 3
1959.194 1
1959.197 1
1959.199 1
1959.213 1
1959.219 3
1959.221 1
1959.227 2
1959.230 1
1959.232 1
1959.251 1
1959.254 1
1959.279 1
1959.298 1
1959.301 1
1959.331 2
1959.339 1
1959.347 1
1959.361 1
1959.363 1
1959.374 1
1959.383 1
1959.413 1
1959.415 3
1959.418 4	&&&&

It turns out 1-Feb-59 shows 4 odd events seen around the world.  

There is no similar day nearby.  In fact, you have to go forward to
mid 59 to get another day with 4 events or back to mid 58, a span of
111 days in all.

A day with the largest number of odd reports in the space of
100+ days that happens to also correspond with the date of another odd
event we were interested in should be very long odds, one would think.  
If you are the kind of person that accepts everything is a coincidence we 
can leave it there. :)

--
[No Stigma!]
Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who
handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing
climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow
the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in
your favor.
-- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying
   Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an
   organization representing govt workers with high security clearances.

A vast array of our most sophisticated sensors, including space-based
platforms, have been utilized by different agencies, typically in
triplicate, to observe and accurately identify the out-of-this-world
nature, performance, and design of these anomalous machines, which are
then determined not to be of earthly origin.
-- Jonathan Grey, NASIC intel officer, Wright Patterson AFB, 06 Jun 2023

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