Newsgroups: alt.astronomy
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: Congressional Hearings on UFOS -- of *course* they ain aliens

[uploaded 53 times; last 28/09/2024]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The Grand Tour of the Voyagers seems to closely explain UFO
  sightings reported over the last 1/2 of the 20th C.
- As probes approached some planets there was an increase in UFO activity
  reported on Earth. After they passed reported activity declined again.
- One planet showed exactly the opposite pattern. Like someone was hiding.  
  See if you can guess which one.
- If some UFO reports were caused by the "buzz" created by TV coverage
  of up-coming close approaches, this last pattern is odd.
- The positions of the 2 probes with respect to their various
  planetary appointments seems to explain about 99% of the UFO data in
  the late 20th cent.


There seems to be some disappointment with the public version of the
Hearings yesterday.

It might be just me, but some of the official explanations sounded
kinda strained. It's a psychological burden to answer questions you
don't want to answer but have to appear to be cooperating to answer so
you don't cop some punishment.

Some of the brass have undergone interrogation training and some of
the testimony looked like that had clicked into action.  In a galaxy far
far away I was a prison shrink here in SE Aus. Some of my own schoolin
re-activated watching some of the video from the proceedings.

But what I want to talk about here is a reprise of some analysis I
posted elsewhere a couple years back that showed the Grand Tour of the
solar system in the 1970s maybe stirred up something somewhere.
Maybe enough to have someone e.g. start following carrier groups off socal 
around like lost puppies.

Here's the setup. The US launched 2 probes to take advantage of some
fortuitous planetary alignments coming up in the late 20th cent.
Voyager 1 and 2 both visited Jupiter and Saturn and "Vijay" went on to
scoot past Uranus and Neptune later.

Now tell me if you heard this, but if -- I said if -- a certain
phenomenon was at least partly based on one or other of these targets,
would we here on lil ol Dirt get to see evidence of it?

As I might have pointed out the principles of Datascience and
Forensic Science are similar. In Forensics one of the major
principles is if a suspect visits a crime scene they leave
evidence at the scene and the scene leaves evidence on them. The
datascience version is -- if 2 datasets share the same spacetime then
information from one is imprinted on the other.

In both cases, finding the fingerprint of one thing on the other is
evidence the 2 things are connected.

So here we run a little regression problem. For each planet we'll
have a countdown for contact by one or other of the probes as the
calendar rolls on from 1970-2000. For Jup and Sat there are 2 probes
approaching and departing. We have to handle that. We'll just sum
the 2 countdowns.  After each probe passes the countdown changes from
a +ve number to a -ve number.

If we try to predict UFO activity observed on Earth, can we get a very
good match between how the V1 and V2 probes are doing on their tour
and monthly UFO activity reported to the NUFORC (I use this dataset a
lot because of the organisation's dedication to transparency)?

The dataset is long so I'll just summarize some lines from the 
file to give anyone that might try to replicate it a leg up to
figuring out what I've done.

Date  Jup  Sat    Ur   Nep   log(#UFOs)
0  18.6667  22.4167  16  19.5833  5.13391
1  18.5  22.25  15.9167  19.5  3.74762
2  18.3333  22.0833  15.8333  19.4167  4.44077
3  18.1667  21.9167  15.75  19.3333  4.44077
4  18  21.75  15.6667  19.25  4.84623
5  17.8333  21.5833  15.5833  19.1667  7.35854
...
115  -0.5  3.25  6.41667  10  6.31257
116  -0.666667  3.08333  6.33333  9.91667  6.58083
117  -0.833333  2.91667  6.25  9.83333  6.14552
118  -1  2.75  6.16667  9.75  6.05021
119  -1.16667  2.58333  6.08333  9.66667  4.44077
120  -1.33333  2.41667  6  9.58333  5.53938
...
594  -80.3333  -76.5833  -33.5  -29.9167  6.31897
595  -80.5  -76.75  -33.5833  -30  6.06379
596  -80.6667  -76.9167  -33.6667  -30.0833  6.35089
597  -80.8333  -77.0833  -33.75  -30.1667  6.49072
598  -81  -77.25  -33.8333  -30.25  6.41836
599  -81.1667  -77.4167  -33.9167  -30.3333  6.48464

The first col is the number of months since Jan 1970.  The planet
columns are the sum of the number of years each probe will take to
reach that planet. When the probe passes its count becomes a -ve
number.  The last column is the log of the number of UFO's
reported to the NUFORC that month. In the 1970s almost all reports
were within the US but we won't try here to deal with that. We'll just
assume the report number is a noisy indicator of UFO activity on Earth.

Now the interesting part.

Is there a linear model of the above that accurately predicts the 
last column from the other columns?

Well I wouldn't be posting this unless I knew there was. :)

The model is as follows:

 REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
 *****************************************
     VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jup        x1     -5170.64990      2068.51392      -2.49969       0.01272
Sat        x2      7147.74365      2714.64722       2.63303       0.00870
Uran       x3     -3832.30859      1314.56030      -2.91528       0.00370
Nep        x4      -121.88642       749.23901      -0.16268       0.87083
 WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =       213.64821
 DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =       549
 SCALE ESTIMATE          =         0.62383
 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.98979
 THE F-VALUE =    13303.979 (WITH   4 AND  549 DF)   P - VALUE = 0.00000
 THERE ARE   553 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT.
 AVERAGE WEIGHT          =         0.92785

Basically, the program I'm using here (PROGRESS -- you'll need an
archaeology degree to look that up) says there is a very very good
model linking the countdowns for each prob and the number of UFO sightings.

The "scale estimate" is French for how well the model predicts monthly
UFO reports. Remember we're using the LOG of the monthly count so it
translates into exp(.62) = 1.9. IOW the model claims to predict
monthly UFO reports within a factor of 2 of the historical value. 
Reasonably close. "Skillful" is one way of putting it.

The robustness of the model is given by the F statistic. The greater
the value the more robust it is. Normally an F of 2,3,4 is great.  The
F here is 13,000! I.e. there is almost no chance there is no connection
between the movement of V1 and V2 and UFO reports.

The R SQUARED says about 99% of the UFO report numbers seem to vary in
response to changes in the planetary countdowns.

The T-VALUE and P-VALUE of each coefficient shows that NEPTUNE maybe
not so important, but the others are 99% involved in predicting UFO
activity as seen on Earth.

We see the coefficient for most planets is -ve. Meaning as each probe
is approaching and the countdowns for V1 and V2 (added together for
Jup and Sat) are positive and decreasing there is very close to no
effect on UFO activity, but as the countdowns approach 0 then UFO
reports spike up.

"For some reason" the coeff for SATURN is exactly the opposite.  When
the countdowns are +ve and the probes are approaching *then* UFO
reports are high. But as the probes get closer and closer UFO activity
on Earth suddenly drops.

Someone is laying low?

This pattern is exactly the opposite we might expect from an Earth  
population being bombarded with news of space probes approaching Saturn.  
We might have expected that as news programs tell people Voyager 1 (or 2) 
is about to fly by Saturn, everyone would run outside and look at Saturn and
start dreaming and maybe mistake Saturn or a fly on the wall for a UFO
and make a report.

So the link between passes of Saturn is seemingly not related to
the effect of publicity on people that might report UFO's.
It's related to the UFO's. The phenomenon and not the observers.

So it seems there is something different about Saturn.  
But Jup, Sat, and Uranus are all involved. 
Neptune not so much.

In a certain branch of philosophy it's argued that if something is
known by one person then it must be assumed it is known by everyone.
So if we "know" these facts based on 50 year old data then we have to
assume the back room boys at the Pentagon -- even if they have no
other evidence whatsoever -- know this as well and probably have known
it for some decades.

Who knows, it might even have been part of the reason V1 and V2 were 
funded to do the fly-bys in the first place.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

UFOs disabled nukes at my top secret base - I will testify before Congress 
because the Pentagon is covering it up
The Sun, 18 May 2022 10:47Z
A FORMER air force officer who claims UFOs disabled the nukes at a nuclear 
weapons base has accused the Pentagon of a ...
[There are other military reports that say a couple UFO incidents are
nuke bases saw control of the missiles lost to "someone else" for a
short time].

US Congress holds first hearing on UFOs in decades
ABC News, 18 May 2022 02:55Z
The US Congress has held its first hearing in half a century on UFOs,
and no, there is still no govt confirmation of extraterrestrial life.

Pentagon now reports about 400 UFO encounters: 'We want to know what's
out there'
ABC News, 17 May 2022 18:19Z
[But dont worry! They use fossil fuels just like us!]

[Coverup:]
Defense Dept hiding UFO info, congressman says: 'There's something else out
there'
Fox News, 17 May 2022 19:14Z
Tim Burchett said Tue the Pentagon isn't being transparent enough about
UFOs with lawmakers and the public, after ...

  US Government Doesn't Want to 'Cover Up' UFO Activity: Official
  Newsweek on MSN.com, 17 May 2022 16:25Z
  Democratic Representative Peter Welch of Vermont asked Moultrie how the
  Dept of Defense could balance potential threats ...

  UFO hearing: Pentagon reveals 11 near misses with US assets, unidentified
  objects
  Fox News, 17 May 2022 16:12Z
  The Pentagon acknowledged Tue that while US assets have never collided
  with anything the military categorizes as ...

  New UFO footage released by Navy Intelligence director showing craft
  hurtling past plane
  Daily Star, 17 May 2022 14:38Z
  The video showed a reflective spherical object zoomed past the aircraft and
  it was classified as one of the "unexplained" ...

  Pentagon announces new office to review 'frequent' UFO sightings
  Washington Examiner, 17 May 2022 14:08Z
  Alleged UFO sightings are "frequent," a Defense Dept official told
  lawmakers during a hearing on Capitol Hill.

  Pentagon shows declassified UFO pictures and video during historic
  congressional hearing
  FOX News on MSN.com, 17 May 2022 13:47Z
  In one brief and shaky video, a small object appeared to zip past a military
  pilot. In a separate video and a similar photo taken at a different time,
  glowing triangles are seeing in the night sky.
  [So sounds like no new evidence was presented then].

  Pentagon committed to understanding UFO origins, says US intelligence
  official
  CBC.ca, 17 May 2022 13:41Z
  A senior Defence Dept intelligence official said on Tue the
  Pentagon is committed to determining the origins of ...

  Pentagon vows 'rigorous scientific analysis' of UFOs
  POLITICO, 17 May 2022 13:32Z

  Key lawmaker warns at UFO hearing: 'Unidentified aerial phenomena are a
  potential national security threat'
  CNN, 17 May 2022 13:24Z
  A House panel is holding a public hearing on Tue on "unidentified aerial
  phenomena," popularly known as UFOs, ...

  UFO videos from fighter plane & warship played to Congress as 400 sightings
  reported in landmark hearing on phenomena
  The Sun, 17 May 2022 13:03Z
  UFO videos were played to Congressmen as part of landmark hearing as
  security chiefs admitted there have now had 400 reported ...

  Maybe the Aliens Really Are Here
  Scientific American, 21 June 2021
  But if so, it's probably in the form of robotic probes-something both UFO
  enthusiasts and SETI scientists should be able to agree on.