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Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: saturn's YUGE energy imbalance and 20th cent ufo sightings

[uploaded 1 times; last 06/09/2024]

My ears prick up every now and then when I hear some new bit of
planetary science.

There was this in the in-basket this morning:


    A Huge Imbalance of Energy Has Been Detected on Saturn
    ScienceAlert, 21 Jun 2024 03:33Z
    Scientists have found that the ringed planet sports a massive, seasonal 
    energy imbalance across its globe. The discovery marks a turning point in 
    our understanding of weather and climate on gas giant planets, their 
    long-term evolution, and ...
    [Saturn's closest and furthest distance from the sun vary by 20%].


So I got to thinking about the link between Saturn and ufo sightings.
Long known. But maybe now the reason becomes clearer.  It turns out
over the 20th cent we have been seeing more UFO's in those years when
Saturn is closer to the sun. Maybe it's like a summer get-away for the
relevant whatever.

The data is pretty clear if you know what you're looking at:


Year	rSat	#UFOs
1950	9.40643	26
1951	9.51575	10
1952	9.62541	23
1953	9.73045	11
1954	9.82641	24
1955	9.90972	23
1956	9.9774	30
1957	10.027	33
1958	10.0567	31
1959	10.0654	30	&lt;-- max rSat
1960	10.0524	38
1961	10.0176	35
1962	9.96181	39
1963	9.88747	46
1964	9.79762	64
1965	9.69604	96
1966	9.58707	112
1967	9.47516	112
1968	9.36511	132
1969	9.26227	94
1970	9.17193	92
1971	9.09882	69
1972	9.0471	92
1973	9.02007	131
1974	9.01951	145	&lt;-- min rSat
1975	9.04555	178
1976	9.09678	163
1977	9.17011	157
1978	9.2611	197
1979	9.36457	149
1980	9.47472	126
1981	9.58521	104
1982	9.69062	97
1983	9.78726	111
1984	9.87208	83
1985	9.94211	131
1986	9.99493	109
1987	10.029	127
1988	10.0431	148
1989	10.037	139
1990	10.0108	128
1991	9.96522	118
1992	9.90175	132
1993	9.82263	148
1994	9.73094	195
1995	9.63019	223
1996	9.52446	192
1997	9.41857	289
1998	9.31751	218
1999	9.22577	208
2000	9.14739	237
2001	9.08634	252
2002	9.04684	212
2003	9.03206	226
2004	9.04345	317
2005	9.08047	502

rSat == dist from sun in AU
#UFOs == sighting reports from NUFORC

It's obvious the number of sightings has gone up over time as (we
suspect) people became more and more interested after it became a
thing. There are data we've covered before that indicate this may not
be a recent thing. Some of the paleo data from the bottoms of lakes
and ice cores at the poles indicates some cycles that seem to link
earth with the movement of Saturn have been going on for at least the
past mn years.

But we can analyze the data above clearest by just doing a 2-way
regression.  Can we explain the UFO sightings in terms of the year and
the distance of Saturn from the sun?

Here are 2 ways. In the first we just throw the data into a stats
program.  In the second we take the log of the UFO count first because
that tends to help the stats programs a bit. They normally require the
"y" variable in the data (dependent variate) to be Gaussian/normally
distributed -- a bell-shaped curve. A "count" is not normally Gaussian
because it doesn't go into negative territory like a bell curve with a
maximum at 0. But taking sqrt or log of such a count can make it "more
Gaussian like".

The first regr looks like:

REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
*****************************************
VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
date         3.41038         0.19055      17.89757       0.00000
x1           -57.87925       8.13504      -7.11481       0.00000
CONSTANT     -6072.01025     403.05545    -15.06495      0.00000
WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =     20145.51562
DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =        48
SCALE ESTIMATE          =        20.48654
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.90604
THE F-VALUE =      231.437 (WITH   2 AND   48 DF)   P - VALUE = 0.00000
THERE ARE    51 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT. 
AVERAGE WEIGHT          =         0.91071


The program finds about 91% of the UFO sightings can be explained by
the year and the distance of Saturn from the sun. The "P-VALUE" column
shows there is virtually no way this can be just luck.  Both things
are involved. Even taking the change over time due we suspect to
growing UFO headlines and "situational awareness" in the (e.g.) US
population the distance between Saturn and the sun plays a key roll as
well. For each 1 AU Saturn is to the sun UFO counts went up 58 (+-8)
per year across the 20th cent.  The "SCALE FACTOR", above, means these
2 things get the annual UFO count across the 20th cent to within +-20
most of the time.

The log version looks like:

REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
*****************************************
VARIABLE     COEFFICIENT    STAND. ERROR     T - VALUE     P - VALUE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
date         0.04177         0.00197      21.23955       0.00000
x1           -0.40408        0.08748      -4.61899       0.00003
CONSTANT     -74.21012       4.29293     -17.28660       0.00000
WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES =         1.77402
DEGREES OF FREEDOM      =        43
SCALE ESTIMATE          =         0.20312
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) =        0.93780
THE F-VALUE =      324.166 (WITH   2 AND   43 DF)   P - VALUE = 0.00000
THERE ARE    46 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT. 
AVERAGE WEIGHT          =         0.82143

The log has helped the stats a bit. This particular program "PROGRESS"
(ancient) is not too fussed by non-Gaussian dependents. But the log
has boosted the "R SQUARED" from 90% to 94%. I.e. there is only about
6% of UFO counts in the 20th cent that are NOT explained by the year
and the distance between Saturn and the sun. In this model we again
find both things are linked with (log of) UFO sightings.  For each AU
Saturn was closer to the sun across the 20th cent the UFO count was
boosted by a factor of exp(.4) = 1.49 = 50%.


Of course we again have to remind ourselves Saturn is not unique in
this respect of linking up with UFO sightings in a very solid
statistical way. They're all at it. ;)


--
Space Patrol [aka Planet Patrol in the US] (1963-1964)
marionette puppets episodes: 39 x 25mins b/w 
"This is the headquarters of Space Patrol, and men from Earth, Mars
and Venus work there as guardians of the peace!" It's the year 2100,
and the peace and ...
Capt. Larry Dart, Slim [Venusian] and Husky [Martian] patrol the solar
system in their Galasphere 347 as part of the peace-keeping force, ...
[Ep 4] When Pluto becomes too cold to support life, something must be
done quickly if the inhabitants are to survive...  [Ep 15] The Queen
of Neptune kidnaps Marla to be her palace ornament...  [Ep 18] Can a
tree on Saturn help to ward off famine on Earth?...  [Ep 22] The
nefarious leeks of Uranus seize mental control over Space Command...
[Ep 33] Political terrorists on Phobos threatening to unleash nerve
gas on the Martian capital capture Capt. Dart, Huskey and Slim as a
hostages, then slowly begin burying them ...
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