Newsgroups: alt.ufo.report
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: uses and abuses of ufo heat maps

[uploaded 24 times; last 26/09/2024]

I've finished uploading the correlation heat maps to my web pages.
I noticed a few people (or maybe robots) tried to get in early and maybe
missed out getting anything.

But as an illustration of what they might be used for, sit back and
listen to a little tale not in any of today's headlines.

I went out early for my skywatch today. Maybe 6pm. Turned out to be an
"active" day. No doubt the AUS govt will say what I saw was a load of
Chinese satellites. They like to characterise strange things in the
sky as being of Chinese origin. Apparently.

Anyway, proceedings kicked off pretty quick. The sun was barely down
over the next-door flats (recent development) when a light high in the
W appeared and disappeared a few times over a min. Not an airplane
nav light.  Something else. At least one of the flashes was pretty
darn bright and seemed to have a (teeny) donut shape. I.e. a bright
circle -- maybe 1/3 or 1/4 the size of the full moon (down low in the
NW for me; Jupiter just above it) -- but with a black center. Hard to
imaging a satellite's solar panels make that kind of reflection.
But {shrug} maybe. ;)

Then a couple moving lights appeared. At least one in the W moving
toward the SE, and at least one in the E moving N (i.e. if it was a
sat then it's orbiting in the wrong direction).

Over the next min there were several other lights in different parts
of the sky.  At least one seemed to hover overhead before moving off N.
More seen to the E or NE going in the wrong direction. Then a
brighter one high in the NE going to the N.

About this point I heard the rumbling of a familiar aircraft in the
distance.  The local (I assume) military maintains a bunch of light
aircraft and a couple jets to got out to shoo off "Chinese satellites"
and "kids drones".  It had the familiar dulcet tones of one of those I've
heard before.  I told the lights to watch out because the cops were
coming.  The one or 2 in the sky at the time didn't seem fussed. They
just kept right on doing what they were doing.

Sure enough, within 10-20 sec Big Flashy appeared with an array of
lights flashing -- not many of them seemingly for nav purposes.
A big red light seemed to be flashing on the top. Some other white
ones. It seemed to head toward one of the lights now going N in the N
sky.  But like most times I've seen this (numbering now in the dozens
of times over the past couple years) the plane doesn't normally head
directly for its target. It kinda sidles up to one side of it -- if it can.

Big Flashy hauled ass and managed to get fairly close to one of the
lights in the sky, off of the NE. Then it turned off left to end up
going over to the West.

But it seems "no-one" was impressed by this performance. As Flashy went
off maybe half a dozen other lights came out of nowhere in different parts
of the sky, moving in different directions. There was also a "pulsar" over in
the NE that flashed bright yellow and dimmed and flashed and dimmed
over several cycles before disappearing. Apparently not moving. Other
dim lights were moving off in various directions. One or 2 seemed to be
close to Big Flashy. None got directly in front of it, but some appeared over
or under it within a few degrees. I think Big Flashy knew they were there
and was trying not to start twitching. Maybe this was a demonstration
of some kind. I've seen big bright orbs and light aircraft go head-to-head
directly overhead (the light aircraft dropped a 180 and high-tailed it to
the S). I've seen light aircraft chase meteor flashes and I've seen
light aircraft chase little lights weaving around in crazy S-s directly
overhead. But I've never seen a Flashy come in and a bunch of lights pop
up and seem to go "nyah nyha nyah; we aren't impressed".

Flashy went off to the west. The activity seemed to die down.  Then I
noticed another Flashy very small and very slow off to the NE.  Seemingly
very high up. After a min or so I noticed a luminous contrail. It seemed to
be another of the aircraft we've just started to see here. Some kind of
high-alt jet with curved swept-back wings. You generally seem to see this
before sunset going E to W mostly to the N of where I am but also a couple
times to the S.  Sometimes they curve off to the NW but generally they go W.

This guy just tooled along right to left maybe 30 deg above the N
horiz, leaving its contrail behind. And disappeared off in the NW somewhere.

I was thinking -- if that slow old thing turned up just after a bunch of
little lights then you have to assume the mission had to be pre-planned.
Even though these big jets go over every now and then, to have one turn up
within 1 min of some "event" means they knew it was gunna happen, where and
when. Interesting.

I rounded out the rest of the hr watching. A couple more dim slow-moving
lights -- too slow to likely be sats if they are moving toward the N.
Polar sats cant be "geostationary" or anything like that.
You notice that some "Chinese satellites" are way too fast (their angular
speed would have them circle the whole earth in 30 min -- 3x too fast for
even the lowest LEO sat) while some are way too slow or the hover before
moving off.

There might have been a "ripple" under clouds high in the N. But that
might have been my failing eyes. But I have seen in the past sections of
cloud suddenly "pixelize" like an aircraft with malfunctioning cloak has
quietly moved across in front of it. Just for a couple seconds.

So the sessions was all very interesting.

But now the analysis part. We can use the maps the programs spat out
to get some kind of picture of what was going on. This sess started at
(I figured) about 7 gmt. So we can look at an appropriate map and figure
out where the heck the little lights might have flown in from.

The maps the AI's produced in the past couple of days link different
parts of the ocean with UFO activity as observed in the US. Using
day-by-day data for ocean surface temperatures (actually, the IR
radiation coming up from each part of the ocean during nighttime on
some day) and day by day sighting data from NUFORC we can see how well
the SST predict UFO sightings day-by-day for the ~10 y the 2 data-sets
overlap. If that section of the ocean does not predict UFO sightings
at all we ignore it.  If there is a significant predictive power then
the s/w messes around to maximize the R2 statistic (the so-called
"explanation power" of a regression model). It then finds the maximum
R2 for all models that apply to each 1x1 deg part of the ocean, then
plots that on a density plot where colors represents the R2 vales at
each point.

We can see a typical one here:
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/MAPS/Z/7Z/map.gif>.

This shows the R2 map for those UFO's reported to the NUFORC that were
seen at 0700 gmt. Hence why we're looking at it now. :) This might
represent the way UFO's in general are flying around the world at 7 gmt
on the average day of the week.

So at 7gmt, when the activity I'm talking about, above, started up the
"sunrise line" was moving past the UK, and the "sunset line" was
coming into the E coast of AUS.

The avg UFO sighting in the NUFORC database around this time of day
seems to highly correlate with the ocean surface somewhere off Java. We
can see the red blob on the map at lon ~100E, lat 10S.

There's another big blob around the Horn of Africa.  And a much more
pinky (lower R2) area S of Madagascar.

The above are all in daylight around this time.

There is also the usual big red blob around lon 100W along the Antarctic
west coast. This is in night around now. If there is some kind of UFO base
there then it's an almost 24/7 operation. :)

So the mental model is -- the things that just meandered over the sky in
Melbourne a couple hrs back now, and were "chased off" or at least
approached by a couple "patrol aircraft" -- possibly came from one of
the closer and redder blobs on the R2 map for 7z.

You can also flick back and forward to see what the sit is like at 6
and 8z.

And if you really want to blow a gasket I've put the whole 24 cycle into
an endless gif movie at
<http://kym.massbus.org/UFO/MAPS/Z/loop.gif>.
Remember, seats should be locked into an upright position before viewing.


--
World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47	<== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer

The US government portrays itself as the world's preeminent
superpower, so to acknowledge that there are things in their
airspace, whatever they are, that are faster and more manoeuvrable
and run rings around fast jets doesn't play very well.
So there's the embarrassment factor, and maybe a little bit of
fear that either an adversary has made a quantum leap in
development, which has left the US in a poor second place, or, as
some believe, this really is extra terrestrial, in which case we're
not at the top of the food chain anymore.
-- Nick Pope, 02 May 2023

We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts,
foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that
is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market
is a nation that is afraid of its people.
-- JFK

New footage emerges of suspected UFO sighting over California military base
New York Post, 23 May 2023 20:01Z
Two UFO experts are reviewing new footage of what appears to be a mass UFO
sighting over a military base. "Weaponized" ...

  [Swamp Gas!]
  Black 'half-football-field-sized' triangular UFO hovers over California
  military base in video
  Daily Mail, 23 May 2023 13:05Z
  A black triangular shaped UFO with five red lights was seen hovering in the
  night sky at Camp Wilson in California on April ...

Scientist studying pilots witnessing UFOs says 'aliens have been here for
long time'
The Mirror, 22 May 2023 22:26Z
An extensive report on UFO activity is due to be published in the summer,
according to Dr Sean Kirkpatrick, director of the ...

UFO mania sweeps academia: A fifth of scholars and scientists say they've
seen unidentified flying objects in the sky, study shows
Daily Mail, 23 May 2023 01:24Z
Academics report seeing UFOs 'shake' a house, and move 'rectilinear' in the
air 37% of profs said further UFO research was ...

Flying Saucers Are So 1947. This Is the New Shape of the Modern UFO
Popular Mechanics, 18 May 2023 05:18Z
Fifty-two percent of American military UFO sightings are described as white
or metallic spheres. So what are they?
[Silver objects seem to correlate with SST in the "far" W Ant.
Sphere's also correlate with the same general area but have their
best corr with SST in the a huge area in the mid S Atl between S Am and S Af].

Retired US Air Force Captain Reveals UFO Attacked A Nuclear Missile Base
CNN-News18, 16 May 2023 06:58Z
However, retired US Air Force captain Robert Salas has shared his experience
of spotting a UFO on the show National Geographic's UFOs: Investigating the
Unknown. He revealed how a UFO attacked his ...
[Apparently the "demonstration" happened more than once at different
bases.  Some people have interpreted it as "give up your nuclear
weapons; they are dangerous". But it might have also been "your best
weapon is useless against us; surrender!". The situation is probably
complicated because there's likely more than one "them". Of course it
might have just been swamp gas or Chinese balloons. In Australia they
call them Chinese satellites and apparently they've been chasing them
with small aircraft -- so as not to draw attention to what is going on
-- since the 1960s. Don't tell anyone I told you].

[Nothing To See Here, Folks!]
UFO chase with two fighter jets leaves 300 witnesses stunned: 'They shot off'
Daily Express, 09 May 2023 13:25Z
Defence officials are investigating after hundreds of eyewitnesses saw
fighter jets chasing 10 to 12 fluorescent orbs at high ...