Newsgroups: alt.ufo.reports
From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Subject: New models link WISE telescope images with UFO sightings

[uploaded 26 times; last 07/09/2024]

Just a short note.  I've been dipping my toes back into the use of
neural nets (NNs) to link various data and UFO sightings data.

The model(s) here link sudden brightening and sudden dimming of
various stars that are still being monitored by the WISE space
telescope (now re-named NEOWISE after the mission was re-activated).

I have downloaded a couple million stars from the database at the
Space Telescope website and used the light intensity plotted out for
each one over the last 10+ years to predict whether a UFO should show
up over N America within 1-2 days of the change in light intensity.

The mental model is -- UFO's, that broadly divide into bright and dark
objects moving around the earth (the WISE telescope is in a 500 km
polar orbit and generally looks up with 4 partly degraded IR cameras
-- it ran out of refrigerant to keep them cool but they do still see a
bit in 1-2 different IR bands), moving in front of a star will either
appear to make it a little brighter or a little dimmer.

Of course the WISE telescope was originally looking at light (IR
light) curves to see whether some of the stars might have planets
crossing in front of them. Some of them seem to. Some stars also have
amazingly massive flares or vary in brightness because they have
another companion star moving round them, or just because they are
totally sh*t crazy like many stars seem to get.

But if we see stars all over the place on the same day dim, and the
pattern of the stars *seems* to be approx straight lines -- you have
to imagine what we're seeing is something a little closer to our
planet than some star that's 10,20,100 lightyears away and has crazy
extreme flare activity or a black hole as a neighbour.

And if these brightening and dimming ALSO seem to predict whether
someone reported a UFO over North America around the same time, it
might be mildly interesting.

So I built up a little program to make some small "CNN"'s (convolution
neural nets -- used for image processing) and let them try to link the
light seen by WISE day by day over the past 10y in all parts of the
sky against UFO sightings reported day by day to the NUFORC.

And the link -- we've looked at this before and found it is "strong"
-- is VERY strong. The neural nets can usually do things typical stats
programs like regression can not do. They handle all kinds of
non-linear relationships between data and can fit close to anything
even if it's only remotely related. :)

But the strength of the models is even shocking to me. I looked at the
numbers from the day by day matching between the CNN prediction and
the actual UFO reports. And it even gets some of the UFO "flaps"
almost exactly right. A couple times the NUFORC says ~200 reports came
in. At least one of these is correctly predicted by the CNN from the
telescope images.

The plot of the match-up is amazing.
I've put 2 new plots up in the relevant scrap book.
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/WISE/wisemodel.gif>
<kym.massbus.org/UFO/WISE/wisemodel2.gif>

The first plot shows time (in days) along the bottom and number of
sightings reported and number of sightings predicted by the CNN on the
vertical axis. I had to chop the plot off above 100 reports because
the plot got crushed down at the bottom because of the scale.

But you can see the green curve (the model) very very closely predicts
the bulk of UFO sightings. The sightings go up and down crazily, and
you might think they are all random. People just getting drunk and
reporting crazy stuff.  Just noise.

But, no. It is not just noise. It is "mostly" tracking just what the
WISE telescope (in this case) is seeing. When stars go dark and bright
in line patterns it very closely predicts UFO reports that will come
in within the next day or 2.

It also seems (from prev work) that maybe a week *after* a UFO report
the WISE telescope also sees a corresponding "blink" in several stars
as the thing(s) head(s) back home. OK. This is the mental model. :)
I'm not saying they live out on the asteroids or Saturn or anything.
That would be just crazy talk. :)

The 2nd plot shows a bigger CNN hooked up with not only WISE output
day by day, but WISE output from the past. Maybe if the computer model
has today's data from various stars all over the place, plus the data
from those stars for a week, month or year ago, it might be able to
"see them coming" and make even better predictions about reports in
the next few days.

And the 2nd plot shows that is true. It is a better predictor of the
UFO data than the first model.

It will take a bit more work yet to absolutely prove there is a link
here and it is not Chinese weather balloons or Tennessee swamp gas.
But the work so far is very encouraging.

I have not yet looked to see whether WISE/NEOWISE telescope data might
have been edited for "reasons of national security". But as I pointed
out some time back the TESS telescope data has been apparently modified
in a way that avoids looking at certain parts of the sky on those days
that suspiciously immediately precede mass UFO sightings. The pattern
of missing data -- and data that has also been "blacked out" but left
on the web site to give the impression everything is working normal in
space telescope land -- is highly highly significant. It seems the
people editing the data didn't do the old thing of flipping a coin
before deciding to delete a given piece of data -- that would tend
to obscure any sharp footprints left in the snow. If you delete
*everything* that might show people things you don't want them to see
it turns out that is an even bigger clue there are things to be seen
than if you left 50% of it there and just called it swamp gas in an
official PR release.

I hope modern Space Force kaydits know more data science now.
But I'm banking on not.

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Section 8. Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) Reports
Persons wanting to report UFO/unexplained phenomena activity
should contact a ... data collection center, such as the National UFO
Reporting Center, etc.
-- www.faa.gov, as at 30 Nov 2022

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