IAEA Newsbriefs

Contents:

Chernobyl Conference sums up Scientific Understanding

International Forum on the Safety of RBMK Reactors

IAEA Board of Governors

Radiological Study of the Mururoa and Fangataufa Atolls

Safeguards Support

Workshop on Modelling Methods for Water Systems

Uranium Market Trends

Security Council Resolution on Iraq

South East Asian NWFZ

Radioactive Waste Management

Nuclear Seminar in Poland

Briefly Noted...

"The Chernobyl reactor accident covers a dimension which goes far beyond the boundaries of nuclear safety and radiation protection", said Dr. Angela Merkel, Germany's Environment Minister and President of the Conference. "The actual effects of this disaster have social and economic aspects which are possibly far more significant than radiation exposure itself."

While the Conference ( 8-12 April 1996) did not expect to reach scientific consensus on all issues involved, its Joint Secretariat did issue conclusions and recommendations that place the Chernobyl consequences into perspective and can serve as the factual basis for decisions about future work and collaboration. Highlights of the findings include those related to:

Accident Initial Fatalities and Injuries. The explosion on 26 April 1986 and early release of radionuclides resulted in 30 deaths, including 28 deaths attributed to acute radiation sickness. These fatalities occurred among the 134 plant staff, firefighters, and emergency workers ("liquidators") who initially responded to the accident and who suffered from severe radiation sickness that was treated in hospitals. Since then, over the past decade, while 14 additional patients have died, only some of these might be directly attributable to radiation exposure.

Incidence of Thyroid Cancer. There has been a substantial increase in reported cases of thyroid cancer in Belarus, Ukraine, and some parts of Russia, especially in young children, generally attributed to exposure to radioiodine during the early phases of the accident in 1986. Up to the end of 1995, a total of about 800 cases (including 400 in Belarus alone) have been reported in children who were under age 15 at the time of diagnosis. To date, three children have died from thyroid cancer. Over the next decades, there will most probably be an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among those who were children in 1986; the estimated number of cases is in the range of a few thousand but there is considerable uncertainty about this. The group at risk should be closely monitored throughout their lives, since treatment should be successful in most cases that are diagnosed early.

Long-Term Radiation Health Effects. Apart from increases in thyroid cancer, there has been no statistically significant deviation in the incidence rates of other cancers that can be attributed to radiation exposure due to the accident. Based on predictive models, it is estimated that the number of future deaths from leukaemia is of the order of 200 among the 3.7 million residents of the contaminated territories and 200 among the 200,000 front-line liquidators who worked at Chernobyl in 1986-87. Leukaemia is an early indicator of radiation health impact. The fact that it has not been seen to date provides reassurance that early predictions are not severely in error.

Other Health-Related Factors. Many changes in health have been seen in the exposed population that are not the result of radiation exposure. There are significant health disorders and symptoms, such as anxiety, depression, and various psychosomatic disorders attributable to mental stress among the population in the region. The psychological impact cannot be completely dissociated from that of the breakup of the Soviet Union, and any forecast should therefore take into account the economic, social, and political circumstances of the three countries.

Environmental Consequences. No dramatically obvious long-term impacts on populations or ecosystems have been observed. Effective countermeasures can be taken at specific sites to achieve significant reduction in the uptake of radiocaesium into food. In general, no food produced by the collective farm system exceeds established international radiation levels, although some foods produced by private farmers does.

Nuclear Safety Remedial Measures. The technical causes of the Chernobyl accident are well known and the safety levels of the 15 RBMK plants operating in Lithuania, Russia, and Ukraine have been raised to practically prevent the same type of accident from occurring again. More RBMK safety improvements are required, however, and further steps are needed to stabilize the sarcophagus built to confine the destroyed Chernobyl Unit-4. RBMK safety issues were examined at an international forum in early April in Vienna and were reported to the subsequent Chernobyl Conference (see following item.)

The Conference featured various sessions at which experts reviewed the findings of work done to date, including the outcome of two major international conferences, one hosted in November 1995 by WHO and the another in March 1996 under EC auspices in Minsk. Opening addresses were made by IAEA Director General Hans Blix; WHO Director General Hiroshi Nakajima; H. Tent, Director General for Science, Research and Development of the EC; and M. Griffiths, Director of the United Nations Department for Humanitarian Affairs (UNDHA). The Conference further featured national statements by Alyaksandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus; A. Shoigu, Minister for Emergencies, Russian Federation; and Yevgeni Marchuk, Prime Minister of Ukraine; and seven keynote presentations by representatives of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO); United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR); Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations; Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development; and of organizations in Germany, Japan, and the United States on the results of major bilateral post-Chernobyl assistance projects with Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

The technical symposium featured eight separate topical sessions on the range of social, health, and environmental subjects. Topics included clinically observed heath effects; thyroid effects; longer term health effects; other health-related effects, including psychological effects, stress and anxiety; consequences for the environment; the social, economic, institutional and political impact; nuclear safety remedial measures; and the consequences in perspective, a prognosis for the future. A panel discussion further explored the public's perception of the Chernobyl accident. Proceedings of the Conference are being published by the IAEA. Highlights of the Conference are available through the IAEA's World Atom Internet Services at the address http://www.iaea.or.at/worldatom/thisweek/preview/chernobyl. More information may be obtained from the IAEA Department of Nuclear Safety.

International Forum on the Safety of RBMK Reactors.

Over the past decade, a considerable amount of work has been carried out by Russian designers and operators to improve RBMK safety and to eliminate the causes that led to the Chernobyl accident. As a result, major design and operational modifications have been implemented. In addition to these actions, the IAEA initiated in 1992 a safety programme for RBMKs with the aim of consolidating results of various national, bilateral, and multilateral activities and to establish international consensus on required safety improvements and related priorities. Through this programme, international assistance is provided to both regulatory and operating organizations involved in technical and financial decisions. The IAEA's activities are co-ordinated with those of an international consortium on the "Safety of Design Solutions and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants with RBMK Reactors" established under auspices of the European Commission. The IAEA has prepared a consolidated list of design and operational safety issues for RBMKs. The list suggests safety upgradings in a number of areas: core design and core monitoring; instrumentation and control; pressure boundary integrity; incident and accident analysis; safety and support systems; fire protection; and operational safety.

In reviewing the safety of RBMKs, the forum concluded that important safety improvements had been made in the design and operation of the units, and that in some respects the RBMK design exhibits some favourable safety features. However, safety concerns remain, particularly regarding the older, or "first-generation", units which were designed to early safety standards and whose backfitting may not be feasible or cost effective. It was recognized, however, that the existing upgrading programmes for these units address most of the safety concerns. With the second and third generations of RBMK plants, the design of safety systems and the protection against hazards have been considerably improved. After the backfits immediately related to the causes of the Chernobyl accident, these generations of RBMKs basically meet most of the defense-in-depth safety objectives applied to modern nuclear power plants. For other safety issues, safety upgrading is under way or planned. The realization of this stage of upgrading has encountered and still encounters large difficulties, which are seen as a major if not the main current problem for RBMK safety. The forum found that international co-operation can essentially contribute to a more extensive technical co-operation on plant-specific safety evaluations to strengthen the dynamic approach to safety improvements, and to help assure financial resources for improving quality, documentation, safety design, and the conduct of operation.

Regarding the sarcophagus, the forum concluded that the structure's stability is a significant problem and that there are a number of other site-specific problems, including radioactive waste issues, that must be addressed. Although the sarcophagus has largely prevented the release of radioactive substances since it was built 10 years ago, greater research efforts are need to develop and implement a design for a permanent and ecologically safe enclosure. The forum called for an integrated step-by-step approach to stabilize the sarcophagus and to address other site-specific problems, and it emphasized that substantial human and financial resources will be needed to achieve results. - More information may be obtained from the IAEA Department of Nuclear Safety.

IAEA Board of Governors

Safeguards Development Programme. The Board resumed its consideration of the second part of proposed measures for strengthening the IAEA's safeguards system. The proposals under discussion (Part 2 measures) are those requiring complementary legal authority. The Board commended the Agency for responding positively to several concerns that had been previously raised by some Member States. While it raised a number of points about certain of the Part 2 measures, the Board emphasized the need to maintain the present momentum and encouraged Member States to co-operate in the interests of finalizing the measures.

In his statement to the Board, Dr. Blix said that considerable progress had been made towards achieving consensus on Part 2 measures, and that the IAEA is continuing to make progress on the implementation of Part 1 measures, which the Board already has approved. Concerning these measures, he said that consultations with States have been initiated to discuss the implementation of specific measures, such as increased co-operation, no-notice inspections, and the collection of environmental samples. He further noted that the Agency's newly inaugurated Clean Laboratory for safeguards analysis at Seibersdorf will soon be in full operation and able to receive and process samples.

Safeguards in the DPRK. Dr. Blix informed the Board that only limited progress had resulted from technical discussions that took place in the DPRK in late January 1996, and that a further round of technical talks is being scheduled. An important issue to be resolved concerns the preservation of information required for the Agency to verify the correctness and completeness of the DPRK's initial declaration of its nuclear material subject to safeguards. The issue of monitoring of nuclear waste also remains to be resolved, he said. While the DPRK's full co-operation has not been forthcoming, he said that the Agency is now able to resume ad-hoc and routine inspections at facilities not subject to the freeze of the DPRK's nuclear programme foreseen in the US/DPRK Agreed Framework, and that it has received relevant accounting reports for these facilities.

In expressing its support of the Agency's efforts, the Board renewed its call for the DPRK to co-operate fully with the IAEA; reaffirmed that the safeguards agreement is still in force and binding on the DPRK; and particularly emphasized the need to preserve intact all relevant information required in order to verify the correctness and completeness of the DPRK's initial declaration.

Nuclear Inspections in Iraq. The Board received a report on IAEA implementation of nuclear verification activities in Iraq under terms of UN Security Council resolutions. A major component of current work relates to assessing the documentation that was provided to the IAEA in 1995 following the departure from Iraq of a high-level Iraqi official and to following up leads from that documentation. The work is proceeding in parallel with ongoing monitoring and verification activities. In his Board statement, Dr. Blix pointed out the continuing challenge of the work, particularly citing recent developments in Iraq and the problems encountered by inspectors of the UN Special Commission.

Nuclear Safety. A number of matters were considered. The Board approved the revised Code on Quality Assurance for Safety in Nuclear Power Plants and Other Nuclear Installations for publication as a Safety Standards document of the Agency. The Code sets out requirements for establishing and implementing a quality assurance programme, and for its assessment. The Board also commented upon the Overview of the IAEA's Nuclear Safety Review, which is issued annually as part of the IAEA Yearbook. The Review discusses elements of the global nuclear safety culture, notably legally binding international agreements, non-binding safety standards, and review and advisory services. It also focuses on the importance of information-sharing from intergovernmental safety conferences and other meetings, and examines topical safety issues of particular relevance to the Agency's activities and the global community.

Radiological Study of the Mururoa and Fangataufa Atolls

In March 1996, a four-member IAEA technical team completed a reconnaissance mission to the Mururoa and Fangataufa atolls to help lay the groundwork for the radiological study. The team checked equipment and facilities for future measurement and sampling work. It also surveyed the lagoon's marine environment, and the soil, bedrock, vegetation, and biota in the terrestrial strips of the atolls.

Requested by the French authorities, the study covers the current radiological situation at the atolls and an evaluation of the long-term radiological situation. The French authorities have agreed to provide the IAEA with information and data required for performing the study. The taking of terrestrial and marine samples is scheduled over the next several months. Analysis of the collected samples will be done by the IAEA's laboratories in Seibersdorf, Austria, and in Monaco, as well as by a network of laboratories worldwide. The study, funded through a voluntary contribution from France of US $1.8 million, is expected to take approximately 18 months.

The IAC was established by IAEA Director General Hans Blix and is chaired by Dr. Gail de Planque, a radiation specialist and former member of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Other members include experts from Argentina, Australia, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, the Russian Federation, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. There are also ex officio experts selected by intergovernmental bodies - the South Pacific Forum, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, the World Health Organization, and the European Commission. The IAC's work is supported by two task groups and a number of working groups with a total of about 40 experts. Project management and co-ordination are being undertaken by the IAEA. - More information may be obtained from the IAEA Department of Nuclear Safety.

Safeguards Support

The new 250-mm lens was developed at the IAEA's request to meet demanding verification requirements. While the standard CVD lens works well for fuel from pressurized-water reactors, the Cerenkov characteristics of a particular fuel assembly from boiling-water reactors or WWERs are more difficult to distinguish and required an advanced lens. When fitted with the new telephoto lens, the CVD provides inspectors with a much larger image of the spent fuel and more Cerenkov characteristics upon which to base conclusions. Laboratory and field testing has confirmed the improved performance of the new lens. Field testing of the prototype has been done in Finland and Sweden with the assistance of the Finnish Safeguards Support Programme. The Agency has placed an order for the new lenses that inspectors would begin using for verification of spent fuel. On 22 March 1996, a prototype lens was presented to Mr. Bruno Pellaud, IAEA Deputy Director General for Safeguards, by co-ordinators of the Canadian and Swedish Safeguards Support Programmes.

Workshop on Modelling Methods for Water Systems

Assessments of the availability and quality of groundwater resources increasingly apply the tools of computer technology. The workshop is among Agency activities that seek to accelerate the application of software for modelling groundwater systems for quantitative evaluation of isotope and chemical data. The training provided hands-on experience in applying computer codes developed primarily to understand the dynamics of groundwater flow. The tools also are useful for predicting the condition of groundwater systems at certain time periods, and movements of pollutants. Future training courses are expected to be organized in association with participating countries in the IAEA's regional technical co-operation project. They are expected to assist institutes responsible for water resources in improving their quantitative understanding of aquifers and to develop predictive models of pollutant movements, thereby fostering better water management strategies and policies. - More information may be obtained from the IAEA Department of Research and Isotopes.

Uranium Market Trends

Since October 1994, the spot price of uranium that most utilities must pay increased 33% by January 1996, and by another 40% by March 1996. The spot price of uranium produced in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has also more than doubled since October 1994. Before the increase, uranium spot prices had been declining in the 1990s because of low-priced uranium sales of excess inventories and supplies from the CIS. Consequently, since 1990, world production has been below reactor requirements, as the cumulative drawdown of world uranium inventories reached about 113,000 tonnes uranium. Annual inventory drawdowns during 1993 and 1994 supplied about 45% of the world's reactor requirements. In 1996, the total production shortfall is estimated to be about 25,000 tonnes uranium.

While recent upward price trends have brightened the picture, the imbalance between production and demand remains, and projections are that more uranium will have to be produced to stabilize the market. Starting around the turn of the century, part of the supply is expected to come from uranium fuel made from highly enriched uranium recovered from nuclear warheads. This fuel will probably enter the market at a rate that meets less than 10% of annual world requirements through 2010. Reprocessed uranium may meet another 5%. This leaves about 85% of the reactor requirements through 2010 that will have to be met from new production. As a result, world uranium production will have to increase by about 70% from current levels. It is unclear whether this level of production can be met. While there are ample known uranium resources to supply reactor requirements well into the next century, the long depressed uranium market has caused a severe shortage of mines and mills. Developing new facilities will take time, as well as a large investment. Currently the market price of uranium is moving up to a level at which such investments would become attractive and restore a balance between uranium production and demand. - More information may be obtained from the IAEA Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Management.

Security Council Resolution on Iraq

Under the resolution (SC Resolution 1051), the Security Council decided that all States shall transmit to the joint unit the notifications, with the data from potential exporters and all other relevant information available to the States, on the intended sale or supply to Iraq from their territories of any items or technologies that are subject to monitoring. It further decided that all States shall report to the joint unit any information they may have at their disposal or may receive from suppliers in their territories of attempts to circumvent the mechanism or to supply Iraq with items prohibited to Iraq under the plans for ongoing monitoring and verification. Notifications to the joint unit by Iraq of its intended imports of monitored items are to begin 60 days from the adoption of the resolution. All other States are required to provide notification of intended supplies at a date to be decided following consultations with members of the Security Council.

The resolution notes that the monitoring mechanism is not a regime for international licensing, but rather for timely provision of information by States in which companies are located which are contemplating sales or supplies to Iraq of items covered by the plans for ongoing monitoring and verification. Within 45 days of the resolution's adoption, UNSCOM and the IAEA are required to provide all States with information necessary to make preparatory arrangements for implementing the mechanism's provisions. - The full text of the resolution as issued by the United Nations is available on-line through the IAEA's World Atom Internet services.

South East Asian NWFZ

In addressing the IAEA Board of Governors in March 1996, Director General Hans Blix noted that the Treaty, similar to other NWFZ treaties, requires its parties to conclude safeguards agreements with the IAEA. It also contains other provisions. These include the requirement that peaceful nuclear activities in the NWFZ be subject to safety assessments conforming to IAEA standards. The Treaty, with respect to its control system, also makes provision for fact-finding missions conducted by inspectors of the IAEA.

Radioactive Waste Management

The meeting is part of activities following an international seminar that the Agency convened in May 1995. The seminar was organized in response to a request of the Joint Council of the Nordic countries and with the approval of the Russian Federation. The seminar included presentations on co-operative programmes in areas of radioactive waste management with Russia, and reports on Russia's waste management programme, structure, and problems. One aim was to identify priority areas where enhanced international co-operation would be useful for strengthening radioactive waste management in the Russian Federation.

Nuclear Seminar in Poland

The seminar is intended to update participants about the types of new nuclear plants that are being developed, and to provide status reports on their safety features and related regulatory matters. Additionally, papers will be presented on technical aspects of radioactive waste management and nuclear power plant decommissioning.

In Poland, which in the early 1990s decided to discontinue its nuclear power programme, rising demand for electricity, as well as replacement of ageing plants, will require construction of new electric power plants in years ahead. More than 60% of the country's existing power plants, predominately coal and gas-fired, have been operating for 20 years or more. - More information about the seminar may be obtained from Roman Trechcinski, SEP 00-043 Warsaw, Tadeusza Czackiego 3/5, Poland. Facsimile: (22) 27-5619. Electronic mail:romtrech@cx1.cyf.gov.pl.

Briefly Noted...

The IAEA has announced the appointment of Mr. Kaluba Chitumbo as Director of the Agency's Division of Safeguards Information Treatment in the Department of Safeguards. Mr. Chitumbo, of Zambia, joined the IAEA's Department of Safeguards in 1984 and since 1993 has been Head of one of the Safeguards Operation Sections.

The first International Conference of the European Commission (EC), Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine was convened in Minsk 18-22 March 1996. The Conference covered a range of topics related to the social, health, and environmental consequences of the April 1986 Chernobyl accident in the three States and Europe. Results were reported to the April International Conference on Chernobyl convened by the IAEA, EC, and World Health Organization in Vienna. More information may be obtained from the EC, rue de la Loi 200, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium. Facsimile: (32-2) 296-6256.

France, the United States, and the United Kingdom have signed protocols to the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, also known as the Treaty of Rarotonga. Signed 25 March 1996 in Suva, Fiji, the protocols bind the States not to use nuclear force or the threat of its use in the region; ban the stationing of nuclear weapons on any territory in the region; and prohibit testing of nuclear weapons there. The world's other two declared nuclear-weapon States, China and Russia, already are party to the protocols relevant to them. Parties to the Treaty, which entered into force in December 1986, include Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Zealand, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Western Samoa.

In March 1996, Brazil became the 49th country to ratify the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (CWC). The government deposited its instrument of ratification with the UN Secretary-General 13 March 1996. Since it opened for signature in January 1993, the CWC has been signed by 160 States. It will enter into force 180 days after the deposit of the 65th instrument of ratification. The Convention prohibits the development, production, acquisition, retention, stockpiling, transfer and use of chemical weapons, and provides for their total destruction. More information may be obtained from the Preparatory Commission for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Laan van Meerdervoort 51, 2517 AE The Hague, Netherlands. Facsimile: 31-70-360-0944.

Mexico's President Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León is expected to address an IAEA-sponsored public information seminar scheduled in Mexico City 18-20 June 1996. The Regional Seminar on Atoms for Development - organized within the framework of an extrabudgetary programme funded by Japan - is being hosted by Mexico's National Institute of Nuclear Research (NINR). Other speakers include Dr. Miguel José Yacaman, NINR Director; IAEA Director General Hans Blix; and experts from Mexico and the IAEA. Topics on the agenda include nuclear power and safety and nuclear applications in health and other fields.

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has published two new studies on aspects of nuclear development. A new analytical study of nuclear legislation in NEA countries - Regulatory and Institutional Framework for Nuclear Activities - provides a global and systematic picture of nuclear laws in 25 countries. It also provides a collection of information covering the institutional framework for nuclear energy in each country, together with the main sectors of nuclear energy, including mining regimes, trade in nuclear materials and equipment, radioactive waste management, and radiation protection. Another recent report - Chernobyl, Ten Years On: Radiological and Health Impact - is an informative appraisal of the Chernobyl accident's consequences by the NEA Committee on Radiation Protection and Public Health. More information may be obtained from NEA, Le Seine St-Germain, 12, boulevard des Îles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux, France. Facsimile: 33-1-45241110.

Sixty-three States have signed the Nuclear Safety Convention as of March 1996. Through mid-April 1996, instruments of ratification have been deposited by 18 States, eleven of which are countries having nuclear power programmes. Ratification of 22 States, including 17 nuclear power countries, is required to bring the Convention into force. A number of countries are in advanced stages of the ratification process. Progress also continues under IAEA auspices in the development of the Convention on the Safe Management of Radioactive Waste. Three preparatory meetings have taken place and a fourth is scheduled in the coming months. It is expected that a draft text could be ready by the end of this year.

The Agency's Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials are being revised. They have long formed the basis for regulating national and international surface, water, and air shipments of radioactive material. The revised regulations are expected to be submitted to the IAEA Board of Governors in June 1996. A number of international organizations - including the London-based International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Montreal-based International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) - have collaborated in the development of the IAEA's transport regulations. Additionally, the IMO has produced a code addressing the construction and operation specifications for vessels transporting radioactive material.

Unanimously approved by the UN General Assembly in December 1995, the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone Treaty opened for signature in Cairo 11 April 1995. Among those attending the signing ceremony were 43 Heads of State or Foreign Ministers of the 53 States that are members of the Organization for African Unity, UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, IAEA Director General Hans Blix, and IAEA Assistant Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, who heads the IAEA Division of External Relations. The IAEA supported the negotiations on the Treaty through a number of General Conference resolutions and the provision of advice on technical and legal aspects. The Treaty is open for signature by any State in the African nuclear-weapon-free-zone, and it will enter into force on the date of deposit of the 28th instrument of ratification.

Click here for the 1995 nuclear power plant status.