DATE=4/18/96 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-33036 TITLE= NUCLEAR DECLINE BYLINE=JOE CHAPMAN DATELINE=NEW YORK CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: A DECADE AFTER THE CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR DISASTER IN UKRAINE, PUBLIC OPINION AND EXCESSIVE COSTS HAVE COMBINED TO VIRTUALLY STOP THE BUILDING OF NEW ATOM-POWERED GENERATING FACILITIES. V-O-A'S JOE CHAPMAN REPORTS FROM NEW YORK. TEXT: THE EXPLOSION AT THE CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ON APRIL 26TH, 1986, WAS A PUBLIC RELATIONS DISASTER FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY. IN THE DECADE SINCE THE ACCIDENT, WITH OPPOSITION TO ATOMIC POWER GROWING, MANY COUNTRIES HAVE SCRAPPED PLANS FOR NEW NUCLEAR PLANTS. SOME NATIONS ARE PLANNING NEW CONVENTIONAL GENERATING PLANTS TO REPLACE THEIR EXISTING NUCLEAR PLANTS, ESPECIALLY THOSE NATIONS THAT USED SOVIET TECHNOLOGY TO BUILD WHAT IS CALLED AN R-B-M-K TYPE REACTOR, WIDELY CONSIDERED AN UNSAFE DESIGN. SCOTT DENMAN, WHO TERMS HIMSELF AN OBJECTIVE ENVIRONMENTALIST, TOLD A RECENT CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK, THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE STRONGLY FAVORED NUCLEAR POWER FOR NEARLY 50 YEARS. ///DENMAN ACT/// HOW ENTRENCHED THAT BIAS IS, BOTH IN THE UNITED STATES AND WORLDWIDE IS RATHER STAGGERING. BETWEEN 1948 AND 1996 MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF ALL THE MONEY IN THE UNITED STATES THAT HAS GONE TOWARD RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, ALL TAXPAYER MONEY, HAS GONE INTO NUCLEAR POWER. (YET) NUCLEAR POWER ONLY PROVIDES 10 PERCENT OF THIS NATION'S PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE, ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF OUR ELECTRICITY. ///END ACT/// EVEN DEFENDERS OF NUCLEAR POWER CONCEDE THE INDUSTRY HAS CONSISTENTLY UNDERESTIMATED THE COST AND TIME NEEDED TO BRING A NEW NUCLEAR PLANT ON LINE. TOTAL ELECTRIC OUTPUT, THE EXPERTS SAY, HAS CONSISTENTLY FAILED TO MEET OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ESTIMATES. EVEN WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE COST OF A POTENTIAL DISASTER, MR. DENMAN SAYS, WALL STREET FINANCIERS GENERALLY ADVISE INVESTORS TO AVOID POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WITH NUCLEAR POWER. //BEGIN OPT//THE STOCK PRICE OF MORE THAN ONE UTILITY COMPANY WITH NUCLEAR GENERATING FACILITIES HAS DROPPED SHARPLY AFTER A RELATIVELY MINOR ACCIDENT, OR WORSE, BEING PLACED ON THE WATCH LIST OF THE U-S NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION. ///END OPT// MR. DENMAN SAYS U-S FIRMS AND OTHERS ARE AGGRESSIVELY PUSHING THE SALES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS, BUT WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. ///DENMAN ACT/// AROUND THE WORLD NUCLEAR POWER HAS BASICALLY PLATEAUED. THERE ARE SOME 434 COMMERCIAL REACTORS THAT ARE CONSIDERED OPERATIONAL, ONLY NINE MORE THAN THERE WERE SIX YEARS AGO. ONLY 34 REACTORS ARE NOW UNDER CONSTRUCTION WORLDWIDE. IN FACT, AS A FIRST SINCE THE 1950S WHEN THE NUCLEAR AGE FIRST DAWNED, WE'RE IN A SITUATION WHERE IN 1995 THERE WERE NO NEW NUCLEAR REACTOR STARTS AROUND THE WORLD. ///END ACT/// SOME EXPERTS BELIEVE ASIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ALLOW A REBIRTH OF NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION. BUT MR. DENMAN SAYS THE JAPANESE HAVE MORE NEGATIVE VIEWS DUE TO A SERIOUS ACCIDENT AT A JAPANESE BREEDER REACTOR. THERE IS STRONG OPPOSITION IN OTHER COUNTRIES, HE SAYS, INCLUDING TAIWAN, THAILAND AND INDONESIA. ///DENMAN ACT/// CHINA CONTINUES TO MAKE BOLD PROJECTIONS ABOUT ITS NUCLEAR POWER CONSTRUCTION. THE CHINESE HAD ONCE CLAIMED THAT 10 REACTORS WOULD BE ON LINE BY THE YEAR 2000. NOW THEY JUST HAVE THREE. ///END ACT/// ///BEGIN OPT///THE NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM IN INDIA, MR. DENMAN SAYS, IS PLAGUED WITH PROBLEMS AND LOW OUTPUT. ///OPT DENMAN ACT/// IN INDIA, BETWEEN 1992 AND 1993, SOME 271 INCIDENTS OR ACCIDENTS OCCURRED -- LIFE THREATENING -- INCLUDING FIRES, RADIOACTIVE LEAKS, MAJOR SYSTEMS FAILURES AND ACCIDENTS. TEN INDIAN REACTORS RIGHT NOW PROVIDE LESS THAN ONE PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S COMMERCIAL ENERGY. THOSE DOMESTICALLY DESIGNED REACTORS OPERATE AT 28 PERCENT OF THEIR RATED CAPACITY. IT'S THE LOWEST LEVEL OF ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. ///END ACT///END OPT/// MR. DENMAN SAYS THE OUTLOOK FOR NUCLEAR POWER IS ESPECIALLY NEGATIVE IN EASTERN EUROPE -- EVEN THOUGH POWER SHORTAGES ARE COMMON. ///DENMAN ACT/// THE IMPACT IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION IS STAGGERING, IN TERMS OF THE DIRECT IMPACT OF CHERNOBYL. SIXTY-FIVE REACTORS WERE UNDER CONSTRUCTION AT THE TIME (1986) IN THE FORMER EASTERN BLOC NATIONS AND NOW, TODAY, JUST 10 REACTORS REMAIN UNDER ACTIVE CONSTRUCTION, INCLUDING ONE THAT LACKS FINANCING AND TWO THAT ARE NOT REALLY BEING ACTIVELY WORKED ON. ///END ACT/// MR. DENMAN SAYS WHILE THE FRENCH WERE ABLE TO BUILD A NUMBER OF REACTORS IN ONLY SIX YEARS BY USING STANDARDIZED DESIGNS, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND RESIDENTS WERE LEFT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE PROCESS. AND, HE SAYS, THE STATE OWNED ELECTRIC COMPANY HAS A DEBT OF 30 BILLION U-S DOLLARS FOR THE PLANTS. ///DENMAN ACT/// ALTHOUGH FRENCH NUCLEAR ADVOCATES OFTEN POINT TO FRANCE'S LOW DOMESTIC ELECTRIC PRICES, A 1995 COMPARISON WITH 10 OTHER EUROPEAN NATIONS SHOWED THAT THE FRENCH RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC PRICES WERE THE FIFTH MOST EXPENSIVE IN EUROPE. ///END ACT/// DAVID MARPLES OF CANADA'S UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA TOLD THE CONFERENCE COUNTRIES SUCH AS UKRAINE AND LITHUANIA FACE THE DILEMMA OF POWER SHORTAGES IF THEY CLOSE DOWN THEIR UNSAFE NUCLEAR REACTORS, ESPECIALLY THE R-B-M-K TYPE. ///MARPLES ACT/// IF ONE LOOKS AT THE SITUATION IN LITHUANIA, I THINK THE PROBLEMS ARE EVIDENT. AT THE PRESENT TIME, IT ACCOUNTS FOR OVER 80 PERCENT OF THE ELECTRICITY PRODUCED IN LITHUANIA. ///END ACT/// THE EXPERTS NOTE THAT WHILE COUNTRIES LIKE LITHUANIA AND UKRAINE FACE ENERGY SHORTAGES IF THEY CLOSE THEIR NUCLEAR PLANTS, RUSSIA WOULD HAVE FEW PROBLEMS BECAUSE OF ITS GREATER ENERGY RESOURCES. (SIGNED) NEB/NY/JMC/JM 18-Apr-96 3:50 PM EDT (1950 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .